Matches / Upcoming / Keyd Stars vs ALKA
Prediction
Our model gives Keyd Stars a 60% chance to beat ALKA at CCT 2026 South America Series 4. Bookmakers price Keyd Stars at 1.58 and ALKA at 2.2 (implied 58% vs 42%).
FormatBO3Form38-38 · 11-13PistolsKEY 48%Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Nuke
Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.
Recent form
Keyd Stars
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents◂ KEY fared bettervs 8 shared opponentsALK fared better ▸
9z#60-40-2
ALKA vs 9z
Apr 22LDust26-13Nuke7-13
Imperial#472-30-2
ALKA vs Imperial
Jul 6LMirage10-13Nuke11-13
GameHunters#1306-22-4
Keyd Stars vs GameHunters
Jul 7WInferno5-13Ancient13-9Mirage13-8Apr 4WDust213-10Mirage13-9Apr 2Wseries1-0+2 earlier meetings
BESTIA Academy#1373-02-0
ALKA vs BESTIA Academy
Apr 2WNuke13-4Ancient13-5UNOUNO MILLE#1406-80-6
Keyd Stars vs UNO MILLE
Jun 25LAncient11-13Nuke9-13May 3LNuke10-13Overpass8-13Apr 8WMirage13-11Dust213-10+3 earlier meetings
MIBR Academy#1606-42-0
Keyd Stars vs MIBR Academy
Jul 9WNuke13-9Ancient13-11May 2WAnubis13-8Dust213-8Mar 26LAncient13-10Nuke2-13Mirage16-19+1 earlier meeting
ALKA vs MIBR Academy
May 17WNuke13-6Ancient13-11
paiN Academy#1948-14-0
Keyd Stars vs paiN Academy
May 23WDust213-2Anubis10-13Mirage13-10May 3WAnubis13-9Dust213-4Apr 1WDust213-10Mirage13-1+1 earlier meeting
METANOIA Wolves#2064-30-2
Keyd Stars vs METANOIA Wolves
May 22WDust213-9Ancient13-2May 16WAncient1-13Dust213-11Nuke13-11Apr 24LNuke9-13Anubis8-13ALKA vs METANOIA Wolves
Apr 23LNuke9-13Dust27-13Keyd Stars 35-25combined map recordALKA 10-16edge · Keyd Stars
Firepower
roster ratingsKeyd Stars · avg 1.09 · top +0.07
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| zede | 104 | 1.05 | 75.6 | 72.2% | 62% | 1.16 |
| lash | 171 | 1.19 | 73.8 | 73.4% | 36% | 1.14 |
| matios | 160 | 0.97 | 74 | 70.6% | 55% | 1.08 |
| ckzao | 28 | 0.95 | 74.2 | 69% | 54% | 1.04 |
| xureba | 138 | 0.9 | 69.6 | 71.4% | 54% | 1.03 |
ALKA · avg 1.09 · top +0.17
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bnc | 33 | 1.15 | 84 | 74.5% | 51% | 1.26 |
| proSHOW | 54 | 1.15 | 74 | 72.8% | 35% | 1.14 |
| cerolzin | 54 | 0.99 | 71.5 | 71.5% | 47% | 1.09 |
| vinaabEAST | 54 | 1 | 74.8 | 69% | 58% | 1.07 |
| puni | 54 | 0.76 | 62.1 | 68.1% | 57% | 0.87 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansVeto read
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps. The veto is live.
Plays: Mirage · Dust2 · Nuke · Removed: Inferno · Anubis · Overpass · Ancient
every map shows both teams' win% (KEY / ALK)
1KEYD STARS BAN
Infernoproj. removed
KEY
0%
0-2ALK
60%
3-2
KEY
0%
0-2
ALK
60%
3-2
2ALKA BAN
Anubisproj. removed
KEY
60%
6-4ALK
0%
0-6
KEY
60%
6-4
ALK
0%
0-6
3KEYD STARS PICK
Mirage
KEY
55%
22-18ALK
50%
3-3
KEY
55%
22-18
ALK
50%
3-3
4ALKA PICK
Dust2
KEY
52%
25-23ALK
58%
7-5
KEY
52%
25-23
ALK
58%
7-5
5KEYD STARS BAN
Overpassproj. removed
KEY
33%
4-8ALK
100%
1-0
KEY
33%
4-8
ALK
100%
1-0
6ALKA BAN
Ancientproj. removed
KEY
60%
15-10ALK
75%
6-2
KEY
60%
15-10
ALK
75%
6-2
7DECIDER
Nukeleft over
KEY
39%
13-20ALK
33%
5-10
KEY
39%
13-20
ALK
33%
5-10
Projected from each team's veto habits (BO3), assuming Keyd Stars vetoes first.
Usual first ban: Keyd Stars Inferno · ALKA Inferno.
Map lab
pick the 3 maps · per-map H2H + predictionlayout
Pick 3 maps ✓
Best-case draws · each side’s strongest realistic Bo3 · tap to load
The veto swings it: Keyd Stars 75% on their maps vs ALKA 63% on theirs. Whoever shapes the pool is favoured. Overpass (55%) is the closest to a toss-up.
Keyd Stars52%to win the seriescoin-flipiMap edgesMirage: Keyd Stars 55% toss-up · Dust2: ALKA 55% toss-up · Nuke: Keyd Stars 55% toss-upWhyKeyd Stars hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesKeyd Stars 52%: 2-1 28%, 2-0 25% · ALKA 48%: 2-0 25%, 2-1 23%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Keyd Stars 52%48% ALKA
It’s nearly a coin-flip. Keyd Stars only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.
MirageKEY v ALK
55%45%
22-18record3-3
55%win50%
54%CT win56%
49%T win49%
49%pistol50%
87%convert100%
Dust2KEY v ALK
45%55%
25-23record7-5
52%win58%
51%CT win54%
51%T win50%
52%pistol46%
82%convert82%
NukeKEY v ALK
55%45%
13-20record5-10
39%win33%
46%CT win46%
44%T win48%
41%pistol33%
89%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
KEYct
KEYt
ALKct
ALKt
KEYpistol
KEYconv
KEYeco
ALKpistol
ALKconv
ALKeco
Miragepool
54%209/389
49%204/413
56%37/66
49%28/57
49%39/80
87%34/39
15%6/40
50%6/12
100%6/6
17%1/6
Dust2pool
51%240/469
51%264/521
54%68/127
50%59/118
52%50/96
82%41/50
22%10/46
46%11/24
82%9/11
15%2/13
Nukepool
46%154/334
44%155/354
46%71/153
48%72/150
41%27/66
89%24/27
5%2/39
33%10/30
100%10/10
20%4/20
Infernoban
38%9/24
39%7/18
61%33/54
43%23/53
25%1/4
100%1/1
0%0/3
40%4/10
75%3/4
50%3/6
Anubisban
58%65/112
45%50/112
38%21/56
27%16/59
50%10/20
90%9/10
20%2/10
75%9/12
33%3/9
0%0/3
Overpassban
57%81/142
29%27/92
60%6/10
58%7/12
46%11/24
73%8/11
0%0/13
100%2/2
50%1/2
n/a
Ancientban
56%143/255
49%114/235
51%40/78
64%46/72
48%24/50
83%20/24
19%5/26
63%10/16
80%8/10
17%1/6
colour = vs league averagebelowavgabove
Pistols
Keyd Stars wins more pistol rounds: 48% vs 41%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
After pistol
Win the pistol → ALKA usually win the next round too (93% vs 85%). Lose the pistol → ALKA fight back to win the next round more often (18% vs 14%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsMargins
Keyd Stars average a 5.6-round margin (24 blown, biggest 6); ALKA average 5.9 (5 blown, 1 OTs). Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Keyd Stars
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/85 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 85 maps they won, 22 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs ex-KRÜNukefrom 7 downvs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 6 downvs FOLHA AMARELANukefrom 5 downvs ODDIKNukefrom 5 downvs R2Dust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/86 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 86 maps they lost, 24 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs YawaraDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs MIBR AcademyMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs Fake do BiruDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs UNO MILLENukeled 6 · lost 9-13vs 9zDust2led 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-KRÜNukefrom 7 down · won 19-15
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs YawaraDust2led 6 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs SharksMirage13-16vs 9zDust214-16vs ex-KRÜNuke19-15vs GalorysDust219-22vs MIBR AcademyMirage16-19
ALKA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i11/25 (44%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 25 maps they won, 11 (44%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 44% of their wins were comebacks, not 44% of all games.vs ProcyonAncientfrom 8 downvs Red FeetDust2from 6 downvs paiN AcademyInfernofrom 5 downvs GrêmioAncientfrom 5 downvs ex-KRÜNukefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/29 (17%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 29 maps they lost, 5 (17%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs CrashersNukeled 4 · lost 8-13vs Keyd StarsAnubisled 4 · lost 11-13vs 9zDust2led 4 · lost 6-13vs MarsborneNukeled 3 · lost 11-13vs GameHuntersMirageled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ProcyonAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs CrashersNukeled 4 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs GameHuntersCache13-16
Keyd Stars vs ALKA FAQ
Who is favored to win Keyd Stars vs ALKA?
Keyd Stars are favored with a 60% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for Keyd Stars vs ALKA?
Bookmakers price Keyd Stars at 1.58 and ALKA at 2.2 (implied 58% vs 42%).
When do Keyd Stars and ALKA play?
Keyd Stars vs ALKA is scheduled for 2026-07-24 19:00 UTC at CCT 2026 South America Series 4.