Matches / Upcoming / Butterfly vs Just Players
Prediction
Our model gives Butterfly a 53% chance to beat Just Players at NODWIN Clutch Series 10. Limited data on this matchup, so the read stays close to the market. Bookmakers price Butterfly at 2.02 and Just Players at 1.74 (implied 46% vs 54%).
FormatBO3Form1-0 · 23-18PistolsBUT 50%Likely mapsAncient · Mirage · Dust2
Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.
Recent form
Butterfly
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Firepower
roster ratingsButterfly · avg 1.25 · top +0.19
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nitzie | 2 | 2.05 | 96.7 | 78.6% | 32% | 1.44 |
| Kurama | 2 | 1.2 | 83.5 | 78% | 56% | 1.37 |
| ayano | 2 | 1.39 | 83.8 | 85.8% | 57% | 1.26 |
| k1ssly | 2 | 1.5 | 74.6 | 78% | 42% | 1.23 |
| Forester | 2 | 1 | 70.7 | 84.2% | 62% | 0.96 |
Just Players · avg 1.08 · top +0.13
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sstiNiX | 98 | 1.11 | 80.4 | 71.6% | 62% | 1.21 |
| sm3t | 70 | 1.05 | 78.8 | 71.2% | 59% | 1.14 |
| spirit | 98 | 1.03 | 76.8 | 71.1% | 59% | 1.12 |
| h1te | 70 | 1.06 | 69.6 | 70.1% | 35% | 1.04 |
| reNIK | 30 | 0.69 | 57.8 | 65.6% | 70% | 0.88 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansVeto read
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps. The veto is live.
Plays: Ancient · Mirage · Dust2 · Removed: Anubis · Inferno · Overpass · Nuke
every map shows both teams' win% (BUT / JUS)
1BUTTERFLY BAN
Anubisproj. removed
BUT
n/a
0gJUS
100%
4-0
BUT
n/a
0g
JUS
100%
4-0
Butterfly on Anubis
no recent maps
Just Players on Anubis
W
SAW
13–9
22d ago
W
ex-Zero Tenacity
16–14
2mo ago
W
ALGO
13–8
2mo ago
W
yngods
16–14
4mo ago
2JUST PLAYERS BAN
Infernoproj. removed
BUT
n/a
0gJUS
n/a
0g
BUT
n/a
0g
JUS
n/a
0g
Butterfly on Inferno
no recent maps
Just Players on Inferno
no recent maps
3BUTTERFLY PICK
Ancient
BUT
100%
1-0JUS
55%
12-10
BUT
100%
1-0
JUS
55%
12-10
Butterfly on Ancient
W
benched gods
13–5
1d ago
4JUST PLAYERS PICK
Mirage
BUT
n/a
0gJUS
62%
18-11
BUT
n/a
0g
JUS
62%
18-11
Butterfly on Mirage
no recent maps
5BUTTERFLY BAN
Overpassproj. removed
BUT
n/a
0gJUS
57%
4-3
BUT
n/a
0g
JUS
57%
4-3
Butterfly on Overpass
no recent maps
6JUST PLAYERS BAN
Nukeproj. removed
BUT
n/a
0gJUS
43%
6-8
BUT
n/a
0g
JUS
43%
6-8
Butterfly on Nuke
no recent maps
7DECIDER
Dust2left over
BUT
n/a
0gJUS
42%
8-11
BUT
n/a
0g
JUS
42%
8-11
Butterfly on Dust2
no recent maps
Projected from each team's veto habits (BO3), assuming Butterfly vetoes first.
Usual first ban: Butterfly Anubis · Just Players Inferno.
Map lab
pick the 3 maps · per-map H2H + predictionlayout
Pick 3 maps ✓
Best-case draws · each side’s strongest realistic Bo3 · tap to load
The veto swings it: Butterfly 51% on their maps vs Just Players 50% on theirs. Whoever shapes the pool is favoured. Mirage (50%) is the closest to a toss-up.
Butterfly51%to win the seriescoin-flipiMap edgesAncient: Butterfly 52% toss-up · Mirage: Butterfly 50% toss-up · Dust2: Butterfly 50% toss-upWhyButterfly hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesButterfly 51%: 2-0 26%, 2-1 25% · Just Players 49%: 2-1 25%, 2-0 24%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Butterfly 51%49% Just Players
It’s nearly a coin-flip. Butterfly only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.
AncientBUT v JUS
52%48%
1-0record12-10
100%win55%
83%CT win56%
67%T win50%
50%pistol39%
100%convert88%
MirageBUT v JUS
50%50%
thin sample, read with caution
0-0record18-11
–win62%
–CT win56%
–T win48%
–pistol48%
–convert82%
Dust2BUT v JUS
50%50%
thin sample, read with caution
0-0record8-11
–win42%
–CT win47%
–T win46%
–pistol55%
–convert76%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
BUTct
BUTt
JUSct
JUSt
BUTpistol
BUTconv
BUTeco
JUSpistol
JUSconv
JUSeco
Ancientpool
83%5/6
67%8/12
56%120/216
50%119/237
50%1/2
100%1/1
100%1/1
39%17/44
88%15/17
37%10/27
Miragepool
n/a
n/a
56%145/257
48%158/328
n/a
n/a
n/a
48%28/58
82%23/28
17%5/30
Dust2pool
n/a
n/a
47%92/197
46%92/201
n/a
n/a
n/a
55%21/38
76%16/21
18%3/17
Anubisban
n/a
n/a
56%25/45
54%25/46
n/a
n/a
n/a
50%4/8
100%4/4
0%0/4
Infernoban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Overpassban
n/a
n/a
60%50/84
38%30/79
n/a
n/a
n/a
64%9/14
56%5/9
20%1/5
Nukeban
n/a
n/a
48%74/155
48%64/134
n/a
n/a
n/a
36%10/28
60%6/10
11%2/18
colour = vs league averagebelowavgabove
Pistols
Butterfly wins more pistol rounds: 50% vs 47%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
After pistol
Win the pistol → Butterfly usually win the next round too (100% vs 82%). Lose the pistol → Butterfly fight back to win the next round more often (100% vs 24%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsMargins
Butterfly average a 5.5-round margin (0 blown, biggest 0); Just Players average 5.3 (10 blown, 11 OTs). Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Butterfly
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/2 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 1 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs benched godsCachefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/0 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 0 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs benched godsCachefrom 4 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni0 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi50% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT50% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
Just Players
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/52 (42%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 52 maps they won, 22 (42%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 42% of their wins were comebacks, not 42% of all games.vs NEW VISIONAncientfrom 11 downvs SAWAnubisfrom 7 downvs TrickedAncientfrom 5 downvs LilmixMiragefrom 5 downvs ex-Zero TenacityAnubisfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/46 (22%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 46 maps they lost, 10 (22%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs eLITenergyOverpassled 7 · lost 11-13vs Lazer CatsAncientled 5 · lost 9-13vs eLITenergyAncientled 4 · lost 11-13vs QUAZARCacheled 4 · lost 9-13vs TNCAncientled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NEW VISIONAncientfrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs eLITenergyOverpassled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs yngodsAnubis16-14vs OlyBetAncient14-16vs SPARTAOverpass22-20vs TrickedMirage16-13vs TrickedNuke13-16
Butterfly vs Just Players FAQ
Who is favored to win Butterfly vs Just Players?
Butterfly are favored with a 53% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for Butterfly vs Just Players?
Bookmakers price Butterfly at 2.02 and Just Players at 1.74 (implied 46% vs 54%).
When do Butterfly and Just Players play?
Butterfly vs Just Players is scheduled for 2026-07-23 17:00 UTC at NODWIN Clutch Series 10.