ARCRED vs Butterfly Prediction & Odds · CS2 Match Preview

Matches / Upcoming / ARCRED vs Butterfly

TBD

NODWIN Clutch Series 10

Prediction

Our model gives ARCRED a 59% chance to beat Butterfly at NODWIN Clutch Series 10. Bookmakers price ARCRED at 1.5 and Butterfly at 2.5 (implied 62% vs 38%).

ARCRED

1.5odds

Butterfly

2.5odds

Our read59%

41%

Market62%

38%

median decimal odds · 18 books

FormatBO3Form40-21 · 6-3PistolsBUT 54%Likely mapsDust2 · Ancient · Mirage

Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.

Recent form

Head-to-head

past meetings & common opponents

◂ ARC fared bettervs 2 shared opponentsBUT fared better ▸

1win#663-32-0

ARCRED vs 1win

Jul 20LAnubis13-2Cache10-13Mirage7-13 Mar 5WMirage13-5Anubis13-8Dust28-13

Butterfly vs 1win

Jul 30WDust213-8Mirage19-17

LAVLavked#1172-01-2

ARCRED vs Lavked

Apr 14WAnubis13-7Mirage13-10

Butterfly vs Lavked

Jul 26LAnubis11-13Mirage13-10Nuke11-13

ARCRED 5-3combined map recordButterfly 3-2even

Firepower

roster ratings

ARCRED · avg 1.19 · top +0.08

Player	Mp	K-D	ADR	KAST	HS	Rating
shg	11	1.11	81.5	77.5%	59%	1.27
Raijin	152	1.14	81.9	73.6%	58%	1.22
synyx	152	1.09	79.1	73.9%	57%	1.2
Ryujin	152	1.08	76.1	74.9%	57%	1.18
Get_Jeka	149	0.98	67.9	75.8%	57%	1.06

Butterfly · avg 1.18 · top +0.19

Player	Mp	K-D	ADR	KAST	HS	Rating
nitzie	22	1.42	81.6	77%	38%	1.37
ayano	20	1.08	75.8	76.2%	61%	1.17
Kurama	22	1.02	79.9	70.8%	63%	1.15
k1ssly	22	1.07	75.2	72.6%	56%	1.11
Forester	21	1.09	73.8	74.5%	55%	1.1

Projected veto

likely picks & bans

Veto read

Butterfly habitually bans Anubis, ARCRED's strongest maps (Dust2, Inferno, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 8/9), not an opponent read, so expect ARCRED to fight the veto for Anubis.

Plays: Dust2 · Ancient · Mirage · Removed: Overpass · Anubis · Nuke · Inferno every map shows both teams' win% (ARC / BUT)

1ARCRED BAN Overpassproj. removed

ARC 0% 0-2

BUT n/a 0g

ARCRED on Overpass

WW 18–22 4mo ago L

Nemesis 7–13 5mo ago

Butterfly on Overpass

no recent maps

2BUTTERFLY BAN Anubisproj. removed

ARC 76% 22-7

BUT 0% 0-1

ARCRED on Anubis

WW 13–10 5d ago W

CYBERSHOKE 13–9 7d ago W flacons 13–0 7d ago W

1win 13–2 14d ago L

INOX Division 3–13 2mo ago W

Virtus.pro 13–10 2mo ago W

CYBERSHOKE 13–10 2mo ago W 163NEWS 13–1 2mo ago

Butterfly on Anubis

L Lavked 11–13 8d ago

3ARCRED PICK Dust2

ARC 67% 24-12

BUT 67% 2-1

ARCRED on Dust2

WW 9–13 5d ago W

CYBERSHOKE 13–3 7d ago W flacons 13–0 7d ago W

Nuclear TigeRES 13–11 2mo ago W

CYBERSHOKE 13–3 2mo ago W

Aurora Young Blud 13–6 2mo ago W

Metizport 13–5 4mo ago W

MOUZ NXT 13–8 4mo ago

Butterfly on Dust2

Black Phoenix 10–13 2d ago W

1win 13–8 4d ago W

SAW Youngsters 13–5 8d ago

4BUTTERFLY PICK Ancient

ARC 52% 11-10

BUT 100% 3-0

ARCRED on Ancient

Walczaki 10–13 2mo ago L

ASTRAL 11–13 2mo ago L

Virtus.pro 20–22 2mo ago L

CYBERSHOKE 9–13 2mo ago W

Aurora Young Blud 13–11 2mo ago L

Metizport 9–13 4mo ago W

AaB 13–5 4mo ago W

HOTU 13–9 4mo ago

Butterfly on Ancient

G2 Ares 13–4 6d ago W

G2 Ares 13–4 10d ago W

benched gods 13–5 12d ago

5ARCRED BAN Nukeproj. removed

ARC 50% 9-9

BUT 80% 4-1

ARCRED on Nuke

CYBERSHOKE 6–13 7d ago L

INOX Division 7–13 2mo ago W

Nuclear TigeRES 13–10 2mo ago L

Metizport 9–13 4mo ago W

MOUZ NXT 13–8 4mo ago W

OlyBet 13–5 5mo ago L QWENTRY 9–13 5mo ago L

kONO 9–13 5mo ago

Butterfly on Nuke

Black Phoenix 13–11 2d ago W Just Players 13–11 6d ago L Lavked 11–13 8d ago W

SAW Youngsters 13–10 8d ago W Just Players 13–6 11d ago

6BUTTERFLY BAN Infernoproj. removed

ARC 67% 14-7

BUT 0% 0-3

ARCRED on Inferno

ASTRAL 13–4 2mo ago L

Metizport 9–13 4mo ago L

WW 2–13 4mo ago L

Nemesis 10–13 5mo ago W 5Actors 13–8 5mo ago W

WW 13–1 5mo ago W

WW 13–6 5mo ago W

Nuclear TigeRES 16–13 5mo ago

Butterfly on Inferno

Black Phoenix 10–13 2d ago L

SAW Youngsters 13–16 8d ago L

G2 Ares 14–16 10d ago

7DECIDER Mirageleft over

ARC 54% 13-11

BUT 83% 5-1

ARCRED on Mirage

WW 15–19 5d ago L

1win 7–13 14d ago L

Walczaki 8–13 2mo ago W

ASTRAL 13–3 2mo ago L

Virtus.pro 7–13 2mo ago W 163NEWS 13–1 2mo ago W Lavked 13–10 4mo ago W

AaB 13–11 4mo ago

Butterfly on Mirage

1win 19–17 4d ago W Just Players 13–4 6d ago W

G2 Ares 13–5 6d ago W Lavked 13–10 8d ago L

G2 Ares 12–16 10d ago W Just Players 13–2 11d ago

Projected from each team's veto habits (BO3), assuming ARCRED vetoes first. Usual first ban: ARCRED Overpass · Butterfly Anubis.

Map lab

pick the 3 maps · per-map H2H + prediction

layout

Pick 3 maps ✓

Best-case draws · each side’s strongest realistic Bo3 · tap to load

The veto swings it: ARCRED 64% on their maps vs Butterfly 76% on theirs. Whoever shapes the pool is favoured. Overpass (50%) is the closest to a toss-up.

Butterfly67%to win the seriesclear pickiMap edgesDust2: ARCRED 53% toss-up · Ancient: Butterfly 64% · Mirage: Butterfly 72% clearWhyButterfly hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesARCRED 33%: 2-0 19%, 2-1 14% · Butterfly 67%: 2-1 37%, 2-0 30%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline

ARCRED 33%67% Butterfly

Butterfly are the clearer side here: the most likely result is Butterfly 2-1.

Dust2ARC v BUT

53%

47%

24-12record2-1

67%win67%

57%CT win50%

63%T win66%

57%pistol33%

87%convert100%

AncientARC v BUT

36%

64%

11-10record3-0

52%win100%

49%CT win69%

54%T win78%

43%pistol50%

89%convert100%

MirageARC v BUT

28%

72%

13-11record5-1

54%win83%

57%CT win67%

44%T win57%

46%pistol67%

73%convert88%

Pistol, eco & sides

win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per map

ct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2

Map

ARCct

ARCt

BUTct

BUTt

ARCpistol

ARCconv

ARCeco

BUTpistol

BUTconv

BUTeco

Dust2pool

57%181/317

63%249/396

50%15/30

66%21/32

57%41/72

87%34/39

26%8/31

33%2/6

100%2/2

25%1/4

Ancientpool

49%116/237

54%125/230

69%11/16

78%28/36

43%18/42

89%16/18

21%5/24

50%3/6

100%3/3

67%2/3

Miragepool

57%141/246

44%96/219

67%48/72

57%28/49

46%22/48

73%16/22

23%6/26

67%8/12

88%7/8

0%0/4

Overpassban

46%11/24

40%8/20

n/a

75%3/4

100%3/3

0%0/1

n/a

Anubisban

51%156/305

65%169/262

42%5/12

50%6/12

52%30/58

86%25/29

29%8/28

0%0/2

n/a

50%1/2

Nukeban

55%117/211

45%78/173

69%37/54

43%26/60

42%15/36

87%13/15

29%6/21

40%4/10

75%3/4

17%1/6

Infernoban

58%115/199

56%133/239

47%17/36

49%17/35

55%23/42

83%19/23

26%5/19

33%2/6

50%1/2

25%1/4

colour = vs league averagebelowavgabove

Pistols

Butterfly wins more pistol rounds: 54% vs 50%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.

After pistol

Win the pistol → Butterfly usually win the next round too (92% vs 84%). Lose the pistol → Butterfly fight back to win the next round more often (27% vs 23%).

Mentality & map flow

comebacks, blown leads

Margins

ARCRED average a 5.6-round margin (21 blown, biggest 9); Butterfly average 4.9 (4 blown, 4 OTs). Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.

ARCRED

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i23/93 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 93 maps they won, 23 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs LavkedMiragefrom 8 down vs Eternal FireDust2from 7 down vs AaBMiragefrom 6 down vs NemigaAncientfrom 5 down vs ex-Zero TenacityAnubisfrom 5 down

Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/59 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 21 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs K27Dust2led 9 · lost 13-16 vs QWENTRYAncientled 7 · lost 14-16 vs CYBERSHOKENukeled 7 · lost 6-13 vs Fingers CrossedInfernoled 6 · lost 17-19 vs WWOverpassled 6 · lost 18-22

Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-10

Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs K27Dust2led 9 · lost 13-16

Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.

Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs FORZE ReloadNuke17-19 vs Eternal FireDust216-13 vs Fingers CrossedInferno17-19 vs BASEMENT BOYSInferno13-16 vs WWNuke16-14

Butterfly

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/15 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 15 maps they won, 6 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs SAW YoungstersNukefrom 7 down vs Black PhoenixNukefrom 6 down vs LavkedMiragefrom 4 down vs benched godsCachefrom 4 down vs 1winDust2from 4 down

Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/7 (57%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 7 maps they lost, 4 (57%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LavkedAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13 vs G2 AresMirageled 4 · lost 12-16 vs Black PhoenixDust2led 4 · lost 10-13 vs SAW YoungstersInfernoled 3 · lost 13-16

Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs SAW YoungstersNukefrom 7 down · won 13-10

Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LavkedAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13

Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.

Close maps (≤3) · OTi55% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT55% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs G2 AresMirage12-16 vs G2 AresInferno14-16 vs SAW YoungstersInferno13-16 vs 1winMirage19-17

ARCRED vs Butterfly FAQ

Who is favored to win ARCRED vs Butterfly?

ARCRED are favored with a 59% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.

What are the betting odds for ARCRED vs Butterfly?

Bookmakers price ARCRED at 1.5 and Butterfly at 2.5 (implied 62% vs 38%).

When do ARCRED and Butterfly play?

ARCRED vs Butterfly is scheduled for a date to be confirmed at NODWIN Clutch Series 10.