Matches / Upcoming / 100 Thieves vs Falcons
Prediction
Our model gives Falcons a 55% chance to beat 100 Thieves at BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2. Bookmakers price 100 Thieves at 6.85 and Falcons at 1.08 (implied 14% vs 86%).
FormatBO3Tier★Form35-17 · 31-11Likely mapsInferno · Mirage · Dust2
Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.
Recent form
100 Thieves
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents◂ 100 fared bettervs 3 shared opponentsFAL fared better ▸
BetBoom#91-20-2
100 Thieves vs BetBoom
Feb 21LDust22-13Nuke16-12Ancient5-13Falcons vs BetBoom
Jun 12LNuke11-13Ancient10-13
magic#201-22-0
100 Thieves vs magic
Mar 31LInferno13-8Mirage8-13Ancient9-13Falcons vs magic
May 16WAncient13-7Dust213-5
K27#381-42-0
Falcons vs K27
May 9WDust213-5Ancient13-11100 Thieves 3-8combined map recordFalcons 4-2edge · Falcons
Firepower
roster ratings100 Thieves · avg 1.15 · top +0.07
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| poiii | 113 | 1.12 | 81.6 | 75% | 61% | 1.22 |
| device | 113 | 1.29 | 77.2 | 74.5% | 36% | 1.19 |
| sirah | 113 | 1.09 | 74.7 | 74.4% | 57% | 1.15 |
| Ag1l | 113 | 1.06 | 72.1 | 74% | 55% | 1.1 |
| rain | 113 | 0.96 | 72 | 74.6% | 59% | 1.07 |
Falcons · avg 1.11 · top +0.2
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m0NESY | 107 | 1.38 | 81.2 | 76% | 37% | 1.31 |
| kyousuke | 97 | 1.11 | 82.6 | 73.8% | 58% | 1.21 |
| NiKo | 107 | 1.1 | 76.1 | 73.9% | 56% | 1.18 |
| TeSeS | 107 | 0.97 | 67.3 | 72.6% | 57% | 1.07 |
| karrigan | 50 | 0.61 | 54.1 | 67.7% | 53% | 0.76 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansVeto read
Falcons habitually bans Overpass, 100 Thieves's strongest maps (Nuke, Inferno, Dust2, Ancient, Overpass all ≥60%).
That's a standing habit (Overpass 40/42), not an opponent read, so expect 100 Thieves to fight the veto for Inferno.
Plays: Inferno · Mirage · Dust2 · Removed: Anubis · Overpass · Nuke · Ancient
every map shows both teams' win% (100 / FAL)
1100 THIEVES BAN
Anubisproj. removed
100
33%
2-4FAL
80%
8-2
100
33%
2-4
FAL
80%
8-2
2FALCONS BAN
Overpassproj. removed
100
67%
2-1FAL
n/a
0g
100
67%
2-1
FAL
n/a
0g
100 Thieves on Overpass
W
BASEMENT BOYS
13–6
2mo ago
W
K27
13–10
4mo ago
L
Johnny Speeds
9–13
4mo agoFalcons on Overpass
no recent maps
3100 THIEVES PICK
Inferno
100
68%
13-6FAL
50%
8-8
100
68%
13-6
FAL
50%
8-8
4FALCONS PICK
Mirage
100
50%
6-6FAL
60%
15-10
100
50%
6-6
FAL
60%
15-10
5100 THIEVES BAN
Nukeproj. removed
100
62%
13-8FAL
80%
8-2
100
62%
13-8
FAL
80%
8-2
6FALCONS BAN
Ancientproj. removed
100
66%
19-10FAL
63%
10-6
100
66%
19-10
FAL
63%
10-6
7DECIDER
Dust2left over
100
70%
16-7FAL
63%
19-11
100
70%
16-7
FAL
63%
19-11
Projected from each team's veto habits (BO3), assuming 100 Thieves vetoes first.
Usual first ban: 100 Thieves Mirage · Falcons Overpass.
Map lab
pick the 3 maps · per-map H2H + predictionlayout
Pick 3 maps ✓
Best-case draws · each side’s strongest realistic Bo3 · tap to load
The veto swings it: 100 Thieves 63% on their maps vs Falcons 78% on theirs. Whoever shapes the pool is favoured. Overpass (50%) is the closest to a toss-up.
100 Thieves57%to win the seriescoin-flipiMap edgesInferno: 100 Thieves 67% clear · Mirage: Falcons 59% · Dust2: 100 Thieves 56%Why100 Thieves hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).Outcomes100 Thieves 57%: 2-1 30%, 2-0 27% · Falcons 43%: 2-1 23%, 2-0 20%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
100 Thieves 57%43% Falcons
It’s nearly a coin-flip. 100 Thieves only lead because their Inferno is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.
Inferno100 v FAL
67%33%
13-6record8-8
68%win50%
63%CT win58%
52%T win48%
58%pistol47%
86%convert47%
Mirage100 v FAL
41%59%
6-6record15-10
50%win60%
64%CT win58%
41%T win45%
54%pistol60%
75%convert80%
Dust2100 v FAL
56%44%
16-7record19-11
70%win63%
60%CT win54%
48%T win51%
48%pistol48%
77%convert83%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
100ct
100t
FALct
FALt
100pistol
100conv
100eco
FALpistol
FALconv
FALeco
Infernopool
63%103/164
52%118/228
58%111/190
48%76/159
58%22/38
86%19/22
19%3/16
47%15/32
47%7/15
29%5/17
Miragepool
64%82/128
41%50/121
58%150/257
45%124/273
54%13/24
75%9/12
18%2/11
60%30/50
80%24/30
15%3/20
Dust2pool
60%151/251
48%107/225
54%176/326
51%166/323
48%22/46
77%17/22
13%3/24
48%29/60
83%24/29
10%3/31
Anubisban
52%32/62
51%37/72
48%48/101
59%65/110
50%6/12
67%4/6
33%2/6
65%13/20
77%10/13
14%1/7
Overpassban
61%19/31
48%16/33
n/a
n/a
50%3/6
100%3/3
0%0/3
n/a
n/a
n/a
Nukeban
57%109/191
49%101/205
64%76/119
40%44/111
57%24/42
96%23/24
28%5/18
45%9/20
89%8/9
27%3/11
Ancientban
56%167/300
53%165/311
58%96/166
53%91/171
57%33/58
94%31/33
16%4/25
50%16/32
94%15/16
25%4/16
colour = vs league averagebelowavgabove
Pistols
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (100 Thieves 53%, Falcons 52%). Nobody has an edge.
After pistol
Win the pistol → 100 Thieves usually win the next round too (80% vs 74%). Lose the pistol → both fight back about the same (16% vs 16%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsMargins
100 Thieves average a 5.5-round margin (19 blown, biggest 8); Falcons average 4.6 (17 blown, 17 OTs). Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
100 Thieves
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/71 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 71 maps they won, 19 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs Nuclear TigeRESAncientfrom 7 downvs NemesisAncientfrom 6 downvs UrsaInfernofrom 6 downvs PhantomAncientfrom 5 downvs aimclubInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/42 (45%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 42 maps they lost, 19 (45%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs TDKAncientled 8 · lost 13-16vs FOKUSInfernoled 6 · lost 14-16vs HOTUDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs ENCEAnubisled 5 · lost 8-13vs STATEAncientled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Nuclear TigeRESAncientfrom 7 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs TDKAncientled 8 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncient16-12vs BetBoomNuke16-12vs FlyQuestNuke16-14vs FOKUSInferno14-16vs Johnny SpeedsInferno19-15
Falcons
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i25/68 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 68 maps they won, 25 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs 3DMAXInfernofrom 8 downvs The MongolZMiragefrom 7 downvs FURIANukefrom 6 downvs VitalityMiragefrom 6 downvs M80Infernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/39 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 39 maps they lost, 17 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BetBoomNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs 9zNukeled 6 · lost 8-13vs FaZeDust2led 5 · lost 11-13vs PARIVISIONDust2led 5 · lost 14-16vs MOUZDust2led 4 · lost 17-19
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs 3DMAXInfernofrom 8 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BetBoomNukeled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi45% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT45% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs LiquidNuke16-14vs MOUZInferno14-16vs MOUZDust217-19vs FURIAMirage14-16vs PARIVISIONDust214-16
100 Thieves vs Falcons FAQ
Who is favored to win 100 Thieves vs Falcons?
Falcons are favored with a 55% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for 100 Thieves vs Falcons?
Bookmakers price 100 Thieves at 6.85 and Falcons at 1.08 (implied 14% vs 86%).
When do 100 Thieves and Falcons play?
100 Thieves vs Falcons is scheduled for 2026-07-22 17:30 UTC at BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2.