Matches / Upcoming / Aurora vs K27
Prediction
Our model gives Aurora a 55% chance to beat K27 at StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier. Bookmakers price Aurora at 1.12 and K27 at 5.41 (implied 83% vs 17%).
FormatBO3Tier★Form27-20 · 47-26Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Overpass
Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents◂ AUR fared bettervs 5 shared opponentsK27 fared better ▸
Falcons#12-10-2
Aurora vs Falcons
Feb 1WAnubis13-7Mirage10-13Inferno13-8K27 vs Falcons
May 9LDust25-13Ancient11-13
FUT#121-20-2
Aurora vs FUT
Feb 14LMirage6-13Anubis16-13Overpass6-13K27 vs FUT
Jan 21LNuke7-13Mirage2-13
HEROIC#280-20-3
Aurora vs HEROIC
May 9LNuke8-13Dust211-13K27 vs HEROIC
Jul 18LNuke9-13Mirage11-13Dust211-13
Sashi#522-02-0
Aurora vs Sashi
Mar 31WOverpass13-7Dust213-4K27 vs Sashi
Mar 9WNuke13-5Mirage13-9
INFINITE#622-00-1
Aurora vs INFINITE
Mar 30WNuke13-10Dust213-5K27 vs INFINITE
Jun 23Lseries0-1Aurora 7-5combined map recordK27 2-8edge · Aurora
Firepower
roster ratingsAurora · avg 1.1 · top +0.08
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wicadia | 111 | 1.13 | 81.1 | 72.2% | 54% | 1.18 |
| XANTARES | 111 | 1.1 | 81.5 | 74.3% | 58% | 1.15 |
| woxic | 111 | 1.16 | 70.7 | 72.8% | 34% | 1.11 |
| soulfly | 111 | 0.94 | 68.9 | 72.7% | 52% | 1.06 |
| MAJ3R | 111 | 0.86 | 64.3 | 70.5% | 51% | 0.98 |
K27 · avg 1.1 · top +0.11
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| xeedo | 182 | 1.08 | 80.2 | 73.5% | 55% | 1.21 |
| qw1nk1 | 182 | 1.04 | 75 | 73.7% | 60% | 1.18 |
| kashl1d | 182 | 1.1 | 66.1 | 71.6% | 35% | 1.1 |
| X5G7V | 182 | 0.89 | 73.7 | 70.1% | 51% | 1.03 |
| shalfey | 14 | 0.98 | 70.9 | 68.2% | 52% | 0.99 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansVeto read
K27 habitually bans Inferno, Aurora's strongest maps (Inferno, Dust2, Anubis all ≥60%).
That's a standing habit (Inferno 71/73), not an opponent read, so expect Aurora to fight the veto for Dust2.
Plays: Dust2 · Mirage · Overpass · Removed: Ancient · Inferno · Nuke · Anubis
every map shows both teams' win% (AUR / K27)
1AURORA BAN
Ancientproj. removed
AUR
0%
0-1K27
67%
20-10
AUR
0%
0-1
K27
67%
20-10
2K27 BAN
Infernoproj. removed
AUR
67%
10-5K27
n/a
0g
AUR
67%
10-5
K27
n/a
0g
Aurora on Inferno
L
Natus Vincere
4–13
3mo ago
W
Alliance
13–2
4mo ago
W
M80
13–3
4mo ago
L
Vitality
5–13
4mo ago
W
The MongolZ
13–6
4mo ago
W
FURIA
13–6
4mo ago
W
FaZe
13–8
4mo ago
W
Astralis
13–10
4mo agoK27 on Inferno
no recent maps
3AURORA PICK
Dust2
AUR
63%
17-10K27
59%
26-18
AUR
63%
17-10
K27
59%
26-18
4K27 PICK
Mirage
AUR
56%
10-8K27
70%
23-10
AUR
56%
10-8
K27
70%
23-10
5AURORA BAN
Nukeproj. removed
AUR
39%
7-11K27
53%
18-16
AUR
39%
7-11
K27
53%
18-16
6K27 BAN
Anubisproj. removed
AUR
64%
9-5K27
56%
9-7
AUR
64%
9-5
K27
56%
9-7
7DECIDER
Overpassleft over
AUR
56%
9-7K27
36%
8-14
AUR
56%
9-7
K27
36%
8-14
Projected from each team's veto habits (BO3), assuming Aurora vetoes first.
Usual first ban: Aurora Ancient · K27 Inferno.
Map lab
pick the 3 maps · per-map H2H + predictionlayout
Pick 3 maps ✓
Best-case draws · each side’s strongest realistic Bo3 · tap to load
The veto swings it: Aurora 64% on their maps vs K27 66% on theirs. Whoever shapes the pool is favoured. Inferno (50%) is the closest to a toss-up.
Aurora54%to win the seriescoin-flipiMap edgesDust2: Aurora 54% toss-up · Mirage: K27 64% · Overpass: Aurora 68% clearWhyAurora hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesAurora 54%: 2-1 34%, 2-0 19% · K27 46%: 2-0 30%, 2-1 17%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Aurora 54%46% K27
It’s nearly a coin-flip. Aurora only lead because their Overpass is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.
Dust2AUR v K27
54%46%
17-10record26-18
63%win59%
56%CT win53%
51%T win54%
57%pistol56%
87%convert84%
MirageAUR v K27
36%64%
10-8record23-10
56%win70%
51%CT win63%
47%T win48%
58%pistol65%
81%convert79%
OverpassAUR v K27
68%32%
9-7record8-14
56%win36%
54%CT win58%
52%T win40%
56%pistol55%
78%convert75%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
AURct
AURt
K27ct
K27t
AURpistol
AURconv
AUReco
K27pistol
K27conv
K27eco
Dust2pool
56%149/268
51%147/287
53%231/436
54%261/483
57%31/54
87%27/31
17%4/23
56%49/88
84%41/49
21%8/39
Miragepool
51%110/216
47%75/159
63%206/327
48%152/319
58%21/36
81%17/21
20%3/15
65%43/66
79%33/42
39%9/23
Overpasspool
54%90/166
52%89/171
58%127/218
40%94/234
56%18/32
78%14/18
21%3/14
55%24/44
75%18/24
21%4/19
Ancientban
67%8/12
33%4/12
55%153/280
55%183/333
100%2/2
100%2/2
n/a
60%36/60
81%29/36
33%8/24
Infernoban
66%101/152
46%69/151
n/a
n/a
50%15/30
80%12/15
53%8/15
n/a
n/a
n/a
Nukeban
53%115/216
44%68/154
56%200/358
44%157/360
64%23/36
74%17/23
15%2/13
56%38/68
79%30/38
17%5/30
Anubisban
49%81/166
56%75/133
51%78/152
45%81/179
61%17/28
88%15/17
9%1/11
44%14/32
100%14/14
11%2/18
colour = vs league averagebelowavgabove
Pistols
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (Aurora 57%, K27 59%). Nobody has an edge.
After pistol
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (83% vs 80%). Lose the pistol → K27 fight back to win the next round more often (26% vs 19%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsMargins
Aurora average a 5.3-round margin (19 blown, biggest 6); K27 average 5.5 (28 blown, 22 OTs). Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Aurora
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i14/62 (23%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 62 maps they won, 14 (23%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 23% of their wins were comebacks, not 23% of all games.vs AstralisDust2from 8 downvs FUTAnubisfrom 6 downvs FURIADust2from 6 downvs B8Miragefrom 5 downvs The MongolZOverpassfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/47 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 47 maps they lost, 19 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LegacyOverpassled 6 · lost 8-13vs MOUZDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs Natus VincereNukeled 5 · lost 10-13vs M80Anubisled 5 · lost 10-13vs AllianceOverpassled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AstralisDust2from 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LegacyOverpassled 6 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs GamerLegionInferno13-16vs VitalityAncient22-25vs FUTAnubis16-13vs Natus VincereInferno12-16vs B8Mirage16-13
K27
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i36/106 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 106 maps they won, 36 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs ARCREDDust2from 9 downvs WildcardDust2from 7 downvs WHITEBIRDNukefrom 6 downvs Inner CircleAnubisfrom 6 downvs AcendAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i28/75 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 75 maps they lost, 28 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-RUBYDust2led 8 · lost 10-13vs WWMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs 1winOverpassled 7 · lost 11-13vs magicAncientled 6 · lost 9-13vs TDKAnubisled 5 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ARCREDDust2from 9 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-RUBYDust2led 8 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs 9INEAncient16-12vs WATERMELONAncient22-20vs ARCREDDust216-13vs NemigaAnubis16-12vs MOUZ NXTAnubis31-29
Aurora vs K27 FAQ
Who is favored to win Aurora vs K27?
Aurora are favored with a 55% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for Aurora vs K27?
Bookmakers price Aurora at 1.12 and K27 at 5.41 (implied 83% vs 17%).
When do Aurora and K27 play?
Aurora vs K27 is scheduled for 2026-07-22 10:00 UTC at StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier.