Matches / Upcoming / STATE vs Fortress
PredictionHigh confidence
Our model gives STATE a 81% chance to beat Fortress at Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2. Bookmakers price STATE at 1.33 and Fortress at 3.15 (implied 70% vs 30%).
FormatBO3Form30-28 · 3-8PistolsSTA 54%Likely mapsNuke · Inferno · Ancient
Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.
Recent form
STATE
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents◂ STA fared bettervs 4 shared opponentsFOR fared better ▸
Invicta#2192-00-2
STATE vs Invicta
May 23WMirage13-3Nuke13-11Fortress vs Invicta
May 23LMirage9-13Inferno14-16
Sashi Academy3-12-0
Fortress vs Sashi Academy
May 23WOverpass16-12Inferno13-5
95 Vikings2-02-0
STATE vs 95 Vikings
May 23WAnubis13-4Ancient13-1Fortress vs 95 Vikings
May 23WDust213-7Ancient13-7
AaB0-30-1
Fortress vs AaB
Mar 14LAncient6-13STATE 7-4combined map recordFortress 4-3edge · STATE
Firepower
roster ratingsSTATE · avg 1.11 · top +0.06
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sL1m3 | 80 | 1.19 | 76.7 | 71.5% | 33% | 1.17 |
| Zanto | 134 | 1 | 72.4 | 74.1% | 61% | 1.14 |
| kwezz | 134 | 1.03 | 78.2 | 72.9% | 54% | 1.14 |
| thamlike | 130 | 1.04 | 71.9 | 75.4% | 47% | 1.1 |
| Patti | 134 | 0.83 | 68.4 | 70.7% | 56% | 0.98 |
Fortress · avg 0.88 · top +0.16
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrEnNiE | 23 | 0.88 | 70.8 | 66.9% | 56% | 1.04 |
| BqreBedre | 20 | 0.92 | 73.6 | 71.3% | 44% | 1.03 |
| As K | 23 | 0.81 | 67.3 | 62.4% | 55% | 0.9 |
| K1ngShield | 13 | 0.62 | 55.8 | 56.9% | 47% | 0.73 |
| DeeQue | 5 | 0.62 | 62.4 | 47.7% | 65% | 0.72 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansVeto read
Fortress habitually bans Nuke, STATE's strongest maps (Nuke all ≥60%).
That's a standing habit (Nuke 6/11), not an opponent read, so expect STATE to fight the veto for Inferno.
Plays: Nuke · Inferno · Ancient · Removed: Dust2 · Anubis · Mirage · Overpass
every map shows both teams' win% (STA / FOR)
1STATE BAN
Dust2proj. removed
STA
n/a
0gFOR
100%
1-0
STA
n/a
0g
FOR
100%
1-0
STATE on Dust2
no recent maps
Fortress on Dust2
W
95 Vikings
13–7
2mo ago
2FORTRESS BAN
Anubisproj. removed
STA
25%
2-6FOR
0%
0-1
STA
25%
2-6
FOR
0%
0-1
3STATE PICK
Nuke
STA
67%
18-9FOR
50%
1-1
STA
67%
18-9
FOR
50%
1-1
4FORTRESS PICK
Inferno
STA
44%
12-15FOR
33%
2-4
STA
44%
12-15
FOR
33%
2-4
5STATE BAN
Mirageproj. removed
STA
45%
10-12FOR
0%
0-3
STA
45%
10-12
FOR
0%
0-3
6FORTRESS BAN
Overpassproj. removed
STA
59%
13-9FOR
67%
2-1
STA
59%
13-9
FOR
67%
2-1
STATE on Overpass
L
MASONIC
11–13
1mo ago
L
Ursa
20–22
3mo ago
L
Lilmix
10–13
3mo ago
W
MASONIC
13–3
3mo ago
W
XI
13–0
3mo ago
W
ENCE Academy
13–10
4mo ago
L
RUSTEC
11–13
4mo ago
W
ex-Zero Tenacity
13–11
4mo agoFortress on Overpass
W
Strael Bora
13–9
2mo ago
W
Sashi Academy
16–12
2mo ago
L
Tricked
8–13
4mo ago
7DECIDER
Ancientleft over
STA
38%
9-15FOR
40%
2-3
STA
38%
9-15
FOR
40%
2-3
Projected from each team's veto habits (BO3), assuming STATE vetoes first.
Usual first ban: STATE Dust2 · Fortress Dust2.
Map lab
pick the 3 maps · per-map H2H + predictionlayout
Pick 3 maps ✓
Best-case draws · each side’s strongest realistic Bo3 · tap to load
The veto swings it: STATE 63% on their maps vs Fortress 53% on theirs. Whoever shapes the pool is favoured. Dust2 (50%) is the closest to a toss-up.
STATE54%to win the seriescoin-flipiMap edgesNuke: STATE 55% toss-up · Inferno: STATE 58% · Ancient: Fortress 54% toss-upWhySTATE hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesSTATE 54%: 2-0 32%, 2-1 23% · Fortress 46%: 2-1 26%, 2-0 19%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
STATE 54%46% Fortress
It’s nearly a coin-flip. STATE only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.
NukeSTA v FOR
55%45%
18-9record1-1
67%win50%
53%CT win38%
57%T win50%
56%pistol75%
90%convert67%
InfernoSTA v FOR
58%42%
12-15record2-4
44%win33%
54%CT win48%
50%T win38%
54%pistol50%
79%convert100%
AncientSTA v FOR
46%54%
9-15record2-3
38%win40%
42%CT win24%
51%T win53%
52%pistol30%
84%convert67%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
STAct
STAt
FORct
FORt
STApistol
STAconv
STAeco
FORpistol
FORconv
FOReco
Nukepool
53%150/285
57%167/295
38%9/24
50%10/20
56%30/54
90%27/30
17%4/24
75%3/4
67%2/3
0%0/1
Infernopool
54%145/268
50%144/288
48%26/54
38%20/52
54%29/54
79%23/29
28%7/25
50%6/12
100%6/6
0%0/5
Ancientpool
42%112/264
51%107/210
24%10/42
53%29/55
52%25/48
84%21/25
4%1/23
30%3/10
67%2/3
29%2/7
Dust2ban
n/a
n/a
50%6/12
88%7/8
n/a
n/a
n/a
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
Anubisban
37%30/81
61%57/93
25%3/12
50%4/8
44%7/16
100%7/7
11%1/9
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
Mirageban
56%145/258
41%79/193
28%10/36
24%4/17
57%25/44
92%23/25
32%6/19
50%3/6
100%3/3
0%0/3
Overpassban
64%148/231
45%110/244
47%16/34
52%17/33
57%25/44
79%19/24
16%3/19
50%3/6
67%2/3
67%2/3
colour = vs league averagebelowavgabove
Pistols
STATE wins more pistol rounds: 54% vs 46%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
After pistol
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (85% vs 83%). Lose the pistol → both fight back about the same (17% vs 15%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsMargins
STATE average a 5.2-round margin (29 blown, biggest 7); Fortress average 7 (6 blown, 4 OTs). Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
STATE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i25/66 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 66 maps they won, 25 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs Johnny SpeedsTrainfrom 7 downvs ex-Zero TenacityOverpassfrom 6 downvs TNCOverpassfrom 5 downvs ex-Zero TenacityOverpassfrom 5 downvs 100 ThievesAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i29/68 (43%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 29 (43%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-Zero TenacityInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs ex-RUBYAnubisled 7 · lost 10-13vs AcendAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs QWENTRYNukeled 6 · lost 13-16vs G2 AresMirageled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Johnny SpeedsTrainfrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-Zero TenacityInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 15Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 15 went to overtime.vs FORZE ReloadNuke12-16vs PhantomOverpass16-13vs AaBAnubis13-16vs Johnny SpeedsTrain16-14vs megoshortTrain17-19
Fortress
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/8 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 8 maps they won, 2 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs Strael BoraAncientfrom 8 downvs Sashi AcademyOverpassfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/15 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 15 maps they lost, 6 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EnjoyMirageled 11 · lost 2-13vs InvictaInfernoled 5 · lost 14-16vs TrickedOverpassled 3 · lost 8-13vs InvictaMirageled 3 · lost 9-13vs STATEInfernoled 3 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Strael BoraAncientfrom 8 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EnjoyMirageled 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi13% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT13% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs InvictaInferno14-16vs Sashi AcademyOverpass16-12vs Strael BoraAncient16-14vs EnjoyNuke16-13
STATE vs Fortress FAQ
Who is favored to win STATE vs Fortress?
STATE are favored with a 81% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for STATE vs Fortress?
Bookmakers price STATE at 1.33 and Fortress at 3.15 (implied 70% vs 30%).
When do STATE and Fortress play?
STATE vs Fortress is scheduled for 2026-07-25 08:00 UTC at Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2.