Matches / Upcoming / ex-MANA vs megoshort
Prediction
Our model gives ex-MANA a 63% chance to beat megoshort at Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2.
FormatBO3Form4-5 · 20-27PistolsMEG 50%Likely mapsDust2 · Ancient · Mirage
Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents◂ EX- fared bettervs 3 shared opponentsMEG fared better ▸
Honvéd#1152-00-2
ex-MANA vs Honvéd
Jun 24WDust213-8Mirage16-13megoshort vs Honvéd
Jul 14LMirage7-13Dust210-13
BIG Academy#1450-20-1
ex-MANA vs BIG Academy
Jul 14LAncient14-16Dust26-13megoshort vs BIG Academy
Mar 18Lseries0-1
OlyBet#2182-12-1
ex-MANA vs OlyBet
Jul 18WMirage13-3Nuke14-16Dust213-7megoshort vs OlyBet
Mar 29WDust210-13Ancient19-16Inferno13-10ex-MANA 4-3combined map recordmegoshort 2-4edge · ex-MANA
Firepower
roster ratingsex-MANA · avg 1.07 · top +0.05
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cerber | 21 | 1.02 | 75.9 | 70.8% | 57% | 1.12 |
| BledarD | 21 | 1.07 | 76.9 | 71.6% | 32% | 1.09 |
| ammar | 21 | 0.98 | 74.5 | 69.4% | 67% | 1.07 |
| vAloN | 20 | 0.92 | 73.3 | 74% | 52% | 1.07 |
| xonn1k | 21 | 0.93 | 70 | 70.2% | 53% | 0.99 |
megoshort · avg 0.96 · top +0.22
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| jayzaR | 8 | 1.15 | 79.1 | 70.4% | 31% | 1.18 |
| Twinkey | 106 | 0.83 | 68.3 | 67.9% | 61% | 0.96 |
| zen | 24 | 0.96 | 67.9 | 64.7% | 46% | 0.96 |
| robiin | 100 | 0.79 | 65.8 | 68.2% | 52% | 0.9 |
| qvick | 8 | 0.56 | 50.9 | 67.8% | 58% | 0.78 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansVeto read
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps. The veto is live.
Plays: Dust2 · Ancient · Mirage · Removed: Inferno · Nuke · Anubis · Overpass
every map shows both teams' win% (EX- / MEG)
1EX-MANA BAN
Infernoproj. removed
EX-
0%
0-1MEG
47%
7-8
EX-
0%
0-1
MEG
47%
7-8
2MEGOSHORT BAN
Nukeproj. removed
EX-
50%
1-1MEG
n/a
0g
EX-
50%
1-1
MEG
n/a
0g
megoshort on Nuke
no recent maps
3EX-MANA PICK
Dust2
EX-
44%
4-5MEG
22%
5-18
EX-
44%
4-5
MEG
22%
5-18
4MEGOSHORT PICK
Ancient
EX-
25%
1-3MEG
52%
13-12
EX-
25%
1-3
MEG
52%
13-12
5EX-MANA BAN
Anubisproj. removed
EX-
0%
0-2MEG
50%
2-2
EX-
0%
0-2
MEG
50%
2-2
megoshort on Anubis
W
TNC
13–11
3mo ago
L
MINLATE
8–13
4mo ago
W
MOUZ NXT
13–9
4mo ago
L
ex-GANK
16–19
4mo ago
6MEGOSHORT BAN
Overpassproj. removed
EX-
n/a
0gMEG
44%
4-5
EX-
n/a
0g
MEG
44%
4-5
ex-MANA on Overpass
no recent maps
7DECIDER
Mirageleft over
EX-
100%
3-0MEG
41%
11-16
EX-
100%
3-0
MEG
41%
11-16
Projected from each team's veto habits (BO3), assuming ex-MANA vetoes first.
Usual first ban: ex-MANA Cache · megoshort Nuke.
Map lab
pick the 3 maps · per-map H2H + predictionlayout
Pick 3 maps ✓
Best-case draws · each side’s strongest realistic Bo3 · tap to load
The veto swings it: ex-MANA 70% on their maps vs megoshort 61% on theirs. Whoever shapes the pool is favoured. Nuke (50%) is the closest to a toss-up.
ex-MANA65%to win the seriesclear pickiMap edgesDust2: ex-MANA 73% clear · Ancient: megoshort 62% · Mirage: ex-MANA 68% clearWhyex-MANA hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).Outcomesex-MANA 65%: 2-1 37%, 2-0 27% · megoshort 35%: 2-1 18%, 2-0 17%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
ex-MANA 65%35% megoshort
ex-MANA are the clearer side here: the most likely result is ex-MANA 2-1.
Dust2EX- v MEG
73%27%
4-5record5-18
44%win22%
59%CT win45%
41%T win43%
44%pistol59%
88%convert78%
AncientEX- v MEG
38%62%
1-3record13-12
25%win52%
47%CT win53%
48%T win50%
63%pistol54%
100%convert89%
MirageEX- v MEG
68%32%
3-0record11-16
100%win41%
56%CT win54%
64%T win38%
33%pistol39%
100%convert81%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
EX-ct
EX-t
MEGct
MEGt
EX-pistol
EX-conv
EX-eco
MEGpistol
MEGconv
MEGeco
Dust2pool
59%46/78
41%42/102
45%120/269
43%92/214
44%8/18
88%7/8
30%3/10
59%27/46
78%21/27
0%0/18
Ancientpool
47%22/47
48%21/44
53%123/231
50%142/284
63%5/8
100%5/5
0%0/3
54%27/50
89%24/27
4%1/23
Miragepool
56%15/27
64%23/36
54%142/261
38%110/288
33%2/6
100%2/2
75%3/4
39%21/54
81%17/21
15%5/33
Infernoban
25%3/12
67%8/12
43%70/162
48%72/149
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
40%12/30
75%9/12
17%3/18
Nukeban
67%16/24
53%9/17
n/a
n/a
75%3/4
67%2/3
100%1/1
n/a
n/a
n/a
Anubisban
41%9/22
46%11/24
48%22/46
53%24/45
0%0/4
n/a
0%0/4
75%6/8
67%4/6
0%0/2
Overpassban
n/a
n/a
58%56/97
38%37/97
n/a
n/a
n/a
39%7/18
71%5/7
0%0/11
colour = vs league averagebelowavgabove
Pistols
megoshort wins more pistol rounds: 50% vs 47%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
After pistol
Win the pistol → ex-MANA usually win the next round too (93% vs 83%). Lose the pistol → ex-MANA fight back to win the next round more often (35% vs 8%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsMargins
ex-MANA average a 5-round margin (7 blown, biggest 7); megoshort average 5.3 (17 blown, 16 OTs). Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ex-MANA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/9 (44%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 9 maps they won, 4 (44%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 44% of their wins were comebacks, not 44% of all games.vs MisaMiragefrom 7 downvs HonvédDust2from 6 downvs HonvédMiragefrom 4 downvs DONSTUAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/12 (58%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 12 maps they lost, 7 (58%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MisaInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs BIG AcademyAncientled 5 · lost 14-16vs OlyBetNukeled 5 · lost 14-16vs WBTAncientled 4 · lost 10-13vs DONSTUAnubisled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MisaMiragefrom 7 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MisaInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi43% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT43% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs HonvédMirage16-13vs BIG AcademyAncient14-16vs benched godsDust212-16vs OlyBetNuke14-16
megoshort
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i14/44 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 44 maps they won, 14 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs TNCMiragefrom 8 downvs QWENTRYMiragefrom 6 downvs SemperFiAncientfrom 4 downvs OmegaMiragefrom 4 downvs WWOverpassfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/61 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 61 maps they lost, 17 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AMOverpassled 7 · lost 9-13vs MOUZ NXTAncientled 4 · lost 8-13vs Aurora Young BludMirageled 4 · lost 9-13vs WaveDust2led 4 · lost 8-13vs ex-GANKAnubisled 4 · lost 16-19
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs TNCMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AMOverpassled 7 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs PrestigeInferno16-13vs TrickedAncient13-16vs STATETrain19-17vs Eternal FireMirage13-16vs Aurora Young BludOverpass14-16
ex-MANA vs megoshort FAQ
Who is favored to win ex-MANA vs megoshort?
ex-MANA are favored with a 63% model win probability.
What are the betting odds for ex-MANA vs megoshort?
Match odds for ex-MANA vs megoshort aren't available yet. Check back closer to the match.
When do ex-MANA and megoshort play?
ex-MANA vs megoshort is scheduled for 2026-07-25 17:00 UTC at Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2.