Arcade vs Abyssal Prediction & Odds · CS2 Match Preview

Matches / Upcoming / Arcade vs Abyssal

2026-08-05 10:00 UTC

DFRAG Open Series 6

Prediction

Our model gives Arcade a 51% chance to beat Abyssal at DFRAG Open Series 6. Bookmakers price Arcade at 2.18 and Abyssal at 1.59 (implied 42% vs 58%).

Arcade

2.18odds

Abyssal

1.59odds

Our read51%

49%

Market42%

58%

median decimal odds · 3 books

FormatBO3Form8-13 · 14-17PistolsABY 62%Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Ancient

Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.

Recent form

Head-to-head

past meetings & common opponents

DFRAG Open Series 4 4mo ago

ESL Challenger League Season 51 Oceania Cup 3 5mo ago

ANZC Locals Brisbane 2026

◂ ARC fared bettervs 7 shared opponentsABY fared better ▸

THUNDER dOWNUNDER#490-11-4

Arcade vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER

Mar 17LNuke7-13

Abyssal vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER

Apr 29LOverpass13-11Anubis7-13Inferno10-13 Feb 25LNuke12-16Ancient5-13

Ground Zero#763-35-8

Arcade vs Ground Zero

Jul 17LMirage13-10Dust26-13Nuke7-13 Jul 17LDust27-13 Mar 17WAncient13-9Dust219-16

Abyssal vs Ground Zero

May 2LMirage13-11Nuke8-13Inferno4-13 Apr 7LOverpass13-8Inferno7-13Nuke16-19 Apr 1LAnubis13-4Mirage10-13Nuke8-13

+2 earlier meetings

Rooster#1181-64-8

Arcade vs Rooster

Apr 7LDust210-13Nuke13-11Overpass10-13 Mar 24LMirage8-13Overpass12-16 Mar 21LNuke14-16Overpass13-16

Abyssal vs Rooster

Jul 17LInferno2-13 Jun 9LOverpass13-6Nuke7-13Mirage11-13 Apr 19WOverpass9-13Nuke13-5Inferno13-11

+3 earlier meetings

DXA#1693-24-1

Arcade vs DXA

Jul 17WDust213-9Cache13-8 Apr 11LOverpass13-9Inferno9-13Dust27-13

Abyssal vs DXA

Apr 18WInferno13-6Mirage13-8 Apr 11WAncient13-8Nuke14-16Mirage13-9

Mindfreak5-65-10

Arcade vs Mindfreak

Apr 6WNuke22-18Dust27-13Mirage13-5 Mar 16WDust216-19Inferno13-9Overpass13-10 Mar 13LNuke6-13Anubis0-13

+1 earlier meeting

Abyssal vs Mindfreak

Jul 17LMirage13-6Inferno9-13Nuke6-13 Apr 5WOverpass13-10Inferno13-16Nuke13-2 Mar 31Wseries1-0

+4 earlier meetings

Skele2-02-1

Arcade vs Skele

Mar 13WMirage13-11Nuke13-9

Abyssal vs Skele

Feb 19WMirage7-13Nuke13-10Ancient16-13

MGLMGLBROS2-02-0

Arcade vs MGLBROS

Apr 11WAnubis13-5Nuke13-6

Abyssal vs MGLBROS

Jun 8WInferno13-2Nuke13-9

Arcade 16-18combined map recordAbyssal 23-32even

Firepower

roster ratings

Arcade · avg 1.04 · top +0.07

Player	Mp	K-D	ADR	KAST	HS	Rating
N1ghtraid	47	1.13	76.2	70.9%	38%	1.11
74LOR	47	1	72.5	72%	57%	1.07
Winnieeeee	6	0.91	67.5	68.6%	48%	1.05
Kras	47	0.88	72.6	69.8%	55%	1.02
Mechanical	47	0.82	67.1	70.3%	47%	0.96

Abyssal · avg 1.13 · top +0.04

Player	Mp	K-D	ADR	KAST	HS	Rating
blood	12	1.15	77.6	73.3%	34%	1.17
dangeR	71	1.1	74.1	75.8%	53%	1.15
gump	74	1.06	79.4	73.3%	52%	1.15
vinhy	74	1	77.1	72.9%	54%	1.13
foggers	74	0.91	71.9	71.8%	50%	1.04

Projected veto

likely picks & bans

Veto read

Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps. The veto is live.

Plays: Nuke · Mirage · Ancient · Removed: Inferno · Dust2 · Anubis · Overpass every map shows both teams' win% (ARC / ABY)

1ARCADE BAN Infernoproj. removed

ARC 50% 1-1

ABY 33% 5-10

Arcade on Inferno

DXA 9–13 4mo ago W

Mindfreak 13–9 5mo ago

Abyssal on Inferno

Mindfreak 9–13 17d ago L

Rooster 2–13 17d ago W MARKandLARRY 13–7 2mo ago W MGLBROS 13–2 2mo ago L

Ground Zero 4–13 3mo ago W Ding Cuts 13–10 3mo ago L

THUNDER dOWNUNDER 10–13 3mo ago W

Rooster 13–11 4mo ago

2ABYSSAL BAN Dust2proj. removed

ARC 30% 3-7

ABY n/a 0g

Arcade on Dust2

Ground Zero 6–13 17d ago W

DXA 13–9 17d ago L

Ground Zero 7–13 17d ago L

DXA 7–13 4mo ago L

Rooster 10–13 4mo ago L

Mindfreak 7–13 4mo ago W

Time Waves 13–10 4mo ago L

SemperFi 8–13 5mo ago

Abyssal on Dust2

no recent maps

3ARCADE PICK Nuke

ARC 69% 9-4

ABY 42% 8-11

Arcade on Nuke

Ground Zero 7–13 17d ago W

Abyssal 13–11 4mo ago W MGLBROS 13–6 4mo ago W

Rooster 13–11 4mo ago W

Mindfreak 22–18 4mo ago W

Time Waves 13–7 4mo ago W

Abyssal 13–11 4mo ago L

Rooster 14–16 5mo ago

Abyssal on Nuke

Mindfreak 6–13 17d ago L

Rooster 7–13 2mo ago W MGLBROS 13–9 2mo ago L

Ground Zero 8–13 3mo ago W Ding Cuts 13–7 3mo ago W

Rooster 13–5 4mo ago W Ding Cuts 13–10 4mo ago L

Rooster 8–13 4mo ago

4ABYSSAL PICK Mirage

ARC 50% 4-4

ABY 67% 12-6

Arcade on Mirage

Ground Zero 13–10 17d ago L

Abyssal 7–13 4mo ago W

Mindfreak 13–5 4mo ago L

Rooster 8–13 4mo ago L

SemperFi 3–13 5mo ago W

Abyssal 16–13 5mo ago L

SemperFi 10–13 5mo ago W

Skele 13–11 5mo ago

Abyssal on Mirage

Mindfreak 13–6 17d ago L MARKandLARRY 8–13 2mo ago L

Rooster 11–13 2mo ago W

Ground Zero 13–11 3mo ago W Ding Cuts 13–3 3mo ago W Ding Cuts 13–2 3mo ago W Ding Cuts 13–10 4mo ago W

DXA 13–8 4mo ago

5ARCADE BAN Anubisproj. removed

ARC 33% 1-2

ABY 20% 1-4

Arcade on Anubis

W MGLBROS 13–5 4mo ago L

Mindfreak 0–13 5mo ago L

Mindfreak 4–13 5mo ago

Abyssal on Anubis

THUNDER dOWNUNDER 7–13 3mo ago W

Ground Zero 13–4 4mo ago L

Ground Zero 7–13 4mo ago L

Mindfreak 6–13 5mo ago L

Mindfreak 9–13 5mo ago

6ABYSSAL BAN Overpassproj. removed

ARC 25% 2-6

ABY 54% 7-6

Arcade on Overpass

DXA 13–9 4mo ago L

Abyssal 10–13 4mo ago L

Rooster 10–13 4mo ago L

Abyssal 11–13 4mo ago L

Rooster 12–16 4mo ago L

Rooster 13–16 5mo ago W

Mindfreak 13–10 5mo ago L

Mindfreak 9–13 5mo ago

Abyssal on Overpass

L MARKandLARRY 6–13 2mo ago W

Rooster 13–6 2mo ago W

THUNDER dOWNUNDER 13–11 3mo ago L

Rooster 9–13 4mo ago L

Rooster 7–13 4mo ago W

Arcade 13–10 4mo ago W

Ground Zero 13–8 4mo ago W

Mindfreak 13–10 4mo ago

7DECIDER Ancientleft over

ARC 50% 1-1

ABY 75% 3-1

Arcade on Ancient

Abyssal 10–13 4mo ago W

Ground Zero 13–9 5mo ago

Abyssal on Ancient

DXA 13–8 4mo ago W

Arcade 13–10 4mo ago L

THUNDER dOWNUNDER 5–13 5mo ago W

Skele 16–13 6mo ago

Projected from each team's veto habits (BO3), assuming Arcade vetoes first. Usual first ban: Arcade Inferno · Abyssal Dust2.

Map lab

pick the 3 maps · per-map H2H + prediction

layout

Pick 3 maps ✓

Best-case draws · each side’s strongest realistic Bo3 · tap to load

The veto swings it: Arcade 67% on their maps vs Abyssal 71% on theirs. Whoever shapes the pool is favoured. Dust2 (50%) is the closest to a toss-up.

Arcade51%to win the seriescoin-flipiMap edgesNuke: Arcade 73% clear · Mirage: Abyssal 65% · Ancient: Abyssal 56% toss-upWhyAbyssal are favoured on 2 of 3 maps, but only barely: the other maps are near 50/50 (Mirage & Ancient), so Arcade just need to steal one (~64% to grab at least one).OutcomesArcade 51%: 2-0 25%, 2-1 25% · Abyssal 49%: 2-1 32%, 2-0 18%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline

Arcade 51%49% Abyssal

It’s nearly a coin-flip. Arcade only lead because their Nuke is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.

NukeARC v ABY

73%

27%

9-4record8-11

69%win42%

55%CT win52%

49%T win51%

54%pistol53%

93%convert95%

MirageARC v ABY

35%

65%

4-4record12-6

50%win67%

52%CT win57%

41%T win56%

56%pistol75%

89%convert100%

AncientARC v ABY

44%

56%

1-1record3-1

50%win75%

55%CT win61%

48%T win40%

100%pistol50%

100%convert100%

Pistol, eco & sides

win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per map

ct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2

Map

ARCct

ARCt

ABYct

ABYt

ARCpistol

ARCconv

ARCeco

ABYpistol

ABYconv

ABYeco

Nukepool

55%77/140

49%71/145

52%93/180

51%114/222

54%14/26

93%13/14

17%2/12

53%20/38

95%19/20

11%2/18

Miragepool

52%44/84

41%35/85

57%109/191

56%101/180

56%9/16

89%8/9

0%0/7

75%27/36

100%27/27

33%3/9

Ancientpool

55%12/22

48%11/23

61%25/41

40%18/45

100%4/4

n/a

50%4/8

100%4/4

25%1/4

Infernoban

46%11/24

55%11/20

49%82/169

43%58/136

75%3/4

67%2/3

0%0/1

43%13/30

54%7/13

41%7/17

Dust2ban

50%59/117

36%36/99

n/a

45%9/20

89%8/9

9%1/11

n/a

Anubisban

32%6/19

38%11/29

47%21/45

40%21/53

50%3/6

100%3/3

0%0/2

50%5/10

20%1/5

0%0/5

Overpassban

54%50/92

43%40/93

53%74/139

49%69/141

44%7/16

86%6/7

11%1/9

46%12/26

75%9/12

14%2/14

colour = vs league averagebelowavgabove

Pistols

Abyssal wins more pistol rounds: 62% vs 59%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.

After pistol

Win the pistol → Abyssal usually win the next round too (98% vs 93%). Lose the pistol → Abyssal fight back to win the next round more often (19% vs 11%).

Mentality & map flow

comebacks, blown leads

Margins

Arcade average a 4.6-round margin (14 blown, biggest 7); Abyssal average 5.3 (16 blown, 8 OTs). Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.

Arcade

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i11/22 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 22 maps they won, 11 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs AbyssalNukefrom 8 down vs MindfreakInfernofrom 5 down vs RoosterNukefrom 5 down vs DXADust2from 5 down vs MindfreakNukefrom 4 down

Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/25 (56%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 25 maps they lost, 14 (56%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs RoosterOverpassled 7 · lost 13-16 vs MindfreakDust2led 4 · lost 16-19 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNukeled 4 · lost 7-13 vs SemperFiDust2led 4 · lost 8-13 vs AbyssalAncientled 4 · lost 10-13

Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AbyssalNukefrom 8 down · won 13-11

Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs RoosterOverpassled 7 · lost 13-16

Avg map margini4.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.

Close maps (≤3) · OTi40% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT40% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs AbyssalMirage16-13 vs MindfreakDust216-19 vs Ground ZeroDust219-16 vs RoosterNuke14-16 vs RoosterOverpass13-16

Abyssal

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i16/36 (44%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 36 maps they won, 16 (44%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 44% of their wins were comebacks, not 44% of all games.vs Ground ZeroOverpassfrom 8 down vs THUNDER dOWNUNDEROverpassfrom 7 down vs MindfreakMiragefrom 7 down vs MGLBROSNukefrom 5 down vs ArcadeAncientfrom 4 down

Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/38 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 38 maps they lost, 16 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNukeled 8 · lost 12-16 vs ArcadeNukeled 8 · lost 11-13 vs RoosterMirageled 6 · lost 7-13 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13 vs MindfreakInfernoled 4 · lost 8-13

Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Ground ZeroOverpassfrom 8 down · won 13-8

Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNukeled 8 · lost 12-16

Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.

Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs SkeleAncient16-13 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNuke12-16 vs UndergroundMirage19-15 vs MindfreakOverpass17-19 vs ArcadeMirage13-16

Arcade vs Abyssal FAQ

Who is favored to win Arcade vs Abyssal?

Arcade are favored with a 51% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.

What are the betting odds for Arcade vs Abyssal?

Bookmakers price Arcade at 2.18 and Abyssal at 1.59 (implied 42% vs 58%).

When do Arcade and Abyssal play?

Arcade vs Abyssal is scheduled for 2026-08-05 10:00 UTC at DFRAG Open Series 6.