Noir Verse vs Fortress Prediction & Odds · CS2 Match Preview

Matches / Upcoming / Noir Verse vs Fortress

TBD

ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2

Prediction

Our model gives Noir Verse a 67% chance to beat Fortress at ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2. Bookmakers price Noir Verse at 1.24 and Fortress at 3.8 (implied 75% vs 25%).

Noir Verse

1.24odds

Fortress

3.8odds

Our read67%

33%

Market75%

25%

median decimal odds · 19 books

FormatBO3Form5-9 · 4-11PistolsNOI 54%Likely mapsAnubis · Dust2 · Ancient

Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.

Recent form

Head-to-head

past meetings & common opponents

◂ NOI fared bettervs 2 shared opponentsFOR fared better ▸

los kogutos#2010-20-2

Noir Verse vs los kogutos

Aug 2LAnubis7-13Ancient7-13

Fortress vs los kogutos

Aug 2LCache3-13Nuke2-13

DRADragonClaw1-01-0

Noir Verse vs DragonClaw

Aug 2Wseries1-0

Fortress vs DragonClaw

Aug 2Wseries1-0

Noir Verse 1-2combined map recordFortress 1-2even

Firepower

roster ratings

Noir Verse · avg 1.04 · top +0.16

Player	Mp	K-D	ADR	KAST	HS	Rating
xeNji	29	1.23	76.8	72.8%	44%	1.2
Santuriano	29	0.9	71.8	72.7%	50%	1.06
fostar	29	0.97	75.9	72.1%	51%	1.05
Naginat	29	0.83	75	66%	66%	0.97
kirxttu	29	0.87	62.1	73.3%	47%	0.93

Fortress · avg 0.91 · top +0.09

Player	Mp	K-D	ADR	KAST	HS	Rating
Brand	27	0.88	76.1	67.6%	54%	1
GrEnNiE	32	0.86	69	65.5%	58%	1
BqreBedre	29	0.85	70	68.6%	48%	0.95
As K	32	0.76	65.4	62.9%	54%	0.86
K1ngShield	22	0.67	55.7	57.9%	44%	0.72

Projected veto

likely picks & bans

Veto read

Fortress habitually bans Mirage, Noir Verse's strongest maps (Mirage all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Mirage 8/15), not an opponent read, so expect Noir Verse to fight the veto for Anubis.

Plays: Anubis · Dust2 · Ancient · Removed: Inferno · Mirage · Overpass · Nuke every map shows both teams' win% (NOI / FOR)

1NOIR VERSE BAN Infernoproj. removed

NOI 0% 0-1

FOR 33% 2-4

Noir Verse on Inferno

FOKUS 4–13 2mo ago

Fortress on Inferno

SAW Youngsters 2–13 13d ago W

DONSTU 13–4 1mo ago L

Endless Journey 0–13 1mo ago L

STATE 6–13 2mo ago W

Sashi Academy 13–5 2mo ago L

Invicta 14–16 2mo ago

2FORTRESS BAN Mirageproj. removed

NOI 60% 3-2

FOR 0% 0-3

Noir Verse on Mirage

Nexus 3–13 2mo ago W

aimclub 13–6 2mo ago W

Entropy 13–2 2mo ago W

atputies 13–5 2mo ago L

EAC 14–16 2mo ago

Fortress on Mirage

Enjoy 2–13 12d ago L

Endless Journey 3–13 1mo ago L

Invicta 9–13 2mo ago

3NOIR VERSE PICK Anubis

NOI 50% 2-2

FOR 50% 1-1

Noir Verse on Anubis

los kogutos 7–13 1d ago L

MOUZ NXT 9–13 6d ago W

ASTRAL 13–6 7d ago W

MOUZ NXT 13–9 22d ago

Fortress on Anubis

Inner Circle Academy 13–11 8d ago L

DONSTU 7–13 1mo ago

4FORTRESS PICK Dust2

NOI 25% 1-3

FOR 100% 1-0

Noir Verse on Dust2

PURE 10–13 7d ago L

SPARTA 7–13 22d ago L

aimclub 6–13 2mo ago W

Entropy 13–11 2mo ago

Fortress on Dust2

95 Vikings 13–7 2mo ago

5NOIR VERSE BAN Overpassproj. removed

NOI 0% 0-1

FOR 67% 2-1

Noir Verse on Overpass

Nexus 6–13 2mo ago

Fortress on Overpass

Strael Bora 13–9 2mo ago W

Sashi Academy 16–12 2mo ago L

Tricked 8–13 5mo ago

6FORTRESS BAN Nukeproj. removed

NOI 57% 4-3

FOR 20% 1-4

Noir Verse on Nuke

MOUZ NXT 6–13 6d ago L

atputies 13–16 7d ago L

FOKUS 7–13 2mo ago W

aimclub 13–5 2mo ago W

atputies 13–7 2mo ago W

EAC 13–6 2mo ago W

WBT 19–17 2mo ago

Fortress on Nuke

los kogutos 2–13 1d ago L

STATE 10–13 5d ago L

STATE 5–13 9d ago W

Enjoy 16–13 12d ago L

STATE 7–13 2mo ago

7DECIDER Ancientleft over

NOI 20% 1-4

FOR 43% 3-4

Noir Verse on Ancient

los kogutos 7–13 1d ago L

MOUZ NXT 8–13 22d ago L

Entropy 5–13 2mo ago L

EAC 10–13 2mo ago W

WBT 13–11 2mo ago

Fortress on Ancient

STATE 2–13 5d ago W

Inner Circle Academy 16–14 8d ago L

SAW Youngsters 3–13 13d ago W

Strael Bora 16–14 2mo ago W

95 Vikings 13–7 2mo ago L

Tricked 5–13 5mo ago L

AaB 6–13 5mo ago

Projected from each team's veto habits (BO3), assuming Noir Verse vetoes first. Usual first ban: Noir Verse Inferno · Fortress Dust2.

Map lab

pick the 3 maps · per-map H2H + prediction

layout

Pick 3 maps ✓

Best-case draws · each side’s strongest realistic Bo3 · tap to load

The veto swings it: Noir Verse 69% on their maps vs Fortress 61% on theirs. Whoever shapes the pool is favoured. Anubis (50%) is the closest to a toss-up.

Fortress59%to win the seriescoin-flipiMap edgesAnubis: Fortress 50% toss-up · Dust2: Fortress 55% toss-up · Ancient: Fortress 64%WhyFortress hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesNoir Verse 41%: 2-0 23%, 2-1 18% · Fortress 59%: 2-1 32%, 2-0 28%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline

Noir Verse 41%59% Fortress

It’s nearly a coin-flip. Fortress only lead because their Ancient is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.

AnubisNOI v FOR

50%

2-2record1-1

50%win50%

43%CT win25%

58%T win70%

75%pistol50%

50%convert100%

Dust2NOI v FOR

45%

55%

1-3record1-0

25%win100%

48%CT win50%

36%T win88%

50%pistol50%

100%convert100%

AncientNOI v FOR

36%

64%

1-4record3-4

20%win43%

42%CT win28%

38%T win47%

40%pistol29%

100%convert50%

Pistol, eco & sides

win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per map

ct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2

Map

NOIct

NOIt

FORct

FORt

NOIpistol

NOIconv

NOIeco

FORpistol

FORconv

FOReco

Anubispool

43%17/40

58%25/43

25%6/24

70%14/20

75%6/8

50%3/6

50%1/2

50%2/4

100%2/2

50%1/2

Dust2pool

48%20/42

36%16/44

50%6/12

88%7/8

50%4/8

100%4/4

0%0/4

50%1/2

100%1/1

0%0/1

Ancientpool

42%25/59

38%18/47

28%16/57

47%37/79

40%4/10

100%4/4

17%1/6

29%4/14

50%2/4

20%2/10

Infernoban

17%2/12

40%2/5

48%26/54

38%20/52

50%1/2

0%0/1

50%6/12

100%6/6

0%0/5

Mirageban

69%36/52

45%18/40

28%10/36

24%4/17

60%6/10

100%6/6

25%1/4

50%3/6

100%3/3

0%0/3

Overpassban

42%5/12

14%1/7

47%16/34

52%17/33

50%1/2

0%0/1

50%3/6

67%2/3

Nukeban

58%44/76

47%32/68

37%22/60

35%14/40

71%10/14

90%9/10

25%1/4

50%5/10

80%4/5

0%0/5

colour = vs league averagebelowavgabove

Pistols

Noir Verse wins more pistol rounds: 54% vs 35%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.

After pistol

Win the pistol → Noir Verse usually win the next round too (79% vs 71%). Lose the pistol → Fortress fight back to win the next round more often (23% vs 17%).

Mentality & map flow

comebacks, blown leads

Margins

Noir Verse average a 5.7-round margin (5 blown, biggest 6); Fortress average 6.8 (9 blown, 5 OTs). Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.

Noir Verse

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/11 (18%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 11 maps they won, 2 (18%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 18% of their wins were comebacks, not 18% of all games.vs WBTNukefrom 3 down vs EntropyDust2from 3 down

Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/18 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 18 maps they lost, 5 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs atputiesNukeled 6 · lost 13-16 vs EACMirageled 5 · lost 14-16 vs MOUZ NXTCacheled 4 · lost 11-13 vs MOUZ NXTAnubisled 3 · lost 9-13 vs MOUZ NXTNukeled 3 · lost 6-13

Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTNukefrom 3 down · won 19-17

Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs atputiesNukeled 6 · lost 13-16

Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.

Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 3Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 3 went to overtime.vs WBTNuke19-17 vs EACMirage14-16 vs atputiesNuke13-16

Fortress

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/10 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 10 maps they won, 3 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs Strael BoraAncientfrom 8 down vs Sashi AcademyOverpassfrom 7 down vs Inner Circle AcademyAnubisfrom 7 down

Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i9/22 (41%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 22 maps they lost, 9 (41%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EnjoyMirageled 11 · lost 2-13 vs Inner Circle AcademyCacheled 6 · lost 10-13 vs InvictaInfernoled 5 · lost 14-16 vs TrickedOverpassled 3 · lost 8-13 vs InvictaMirageled 3 · lost 9-13

Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Strael BoraAncientfrom 8 down · won 16-14

Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EnjoyMirageled 11 · lost 2-13

Avg map margini6.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.

Close maps (≤3) · OTi22% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT22% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs InvictaInferno14-16 vs Sashi AcademyOverpass16-12 vs Strael BoraAncient16-14 vs EnjoyNuke16-13 vs Inner Circle AcademyAncient16-14

Noir Verse vs Fortress FAQ

Who is favored to win Noir Verse vs Fortress?

Noir Verse are favored with a 67% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.

What are the betting odds for Noir Verse vs Fortress?

Bookmakers price Noir Verse at 1.24 and Fortress at 3.8 (implied 75% vs 25%).

When do Noir Verse and Fortress play?

Noir Verse vs Fortress is scheduled for a date to be confirmed at ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2.