Matches / Upcoming / NRG vs Phantom
Prediction
Our model gives NRG a 63% chance to beat Phantom at Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier. Bookmakers price NRG at 1.65 and Phantom at 2.14 (implied 56% vs 44%).
FormatBO3Tier★Form28-20 · 48-46PistolsPHA 54%Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Dust2
Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.
Recent form
NRG
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents◂ NRG fared bettervs 6 shared opponentsPHA fared better ▸
B8#174-11-3
GamerLegion#212-10-1
Phantom vs GamerLegion
Feb 22LAncient13-16
HEROIC#300-21-2
NRG vs HEROIC
Mar 1LInferno8-13Nuke10-13Phantom vs HEROIC
Jul 16LAncient11-13Nuke16-14Dust211-13
EYEBALLERS#360-21-2
NRG vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 6LNuke14-16Mirage6-13Phantom vs EYEBALLERS
Aug 8LAncient11-13Inferno19-17Anubis10-13
Acend#392-13-3
SINNERS#441-01-0
NRG vs SINNERS
Jun 2WNuke13-6Phantom vs SINNERS
Feb 22WOverpass13-8NRG 9-7combined map recordPhantom 7-11edge · NRG
Firepower
roster ratingsNRG · avg 1.16 · top +0.08
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hallzerk | 17 | 1.34 | 77.1 | 81.3% | 49% | 1.24 |
| Sonic | 112 | 1.05 | 81.7 | 73.5% | 54% | 1.18 |
| Jeorge | 67 | 1.05 | 73.5 | 75.2% | 54% | 1.17 |
| Grim | 70 | 1.01 | 77.9 | 71.2% | 56% | 1.15 |
| nitr0 | 112 | 0.94 | 66.4 | 71.3% | 53% | 1.07 |
Phantom · avg 1.14 · top +0.13
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nicoodoz | 26 | 1.32 | 84.3 | 77.9% | 51% | 1.27 |
| Kylar | 208 | 1.09 | 73.5 | 73.4% | 60% | 1.17 |
| KEi | 203 | 1.02 | 77.5 | 73% | 49% | 1.11 |
| cej0t | 18 | 1.1 | 68.8 | 74.8% | 50% | 1.1 |
| TMB | 67 | 0.88 | 72.9 | 70% | 54% | 1.06 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansVeto read
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps. The veto is live.
Plays: Mirage · Nuke · Dust2 · Removed: Anubis · Inferno · Overpass · Ancient
every map shows both teams' win% (NRG / PHA)
1NRG BAN
Anubisproj. removed
NRG
0%
0-2PHA
42%
5-7
NRG
0%
0-2
PHA
42%
5-7
2PHANTOM BAN
Infernoproj. removed
NRG
55%
11-9PHA
100%
2-0
NRG
55%
11-9
PHA
100%
2-0
3NRG PICK
Mirage
NRG
71%
17-7PHA
48%
14-15
NRG
71%
17-7
PHA
48%
14-15
4PHANTOM PICK
Nuke
NRG
41%
7-10PHA
57%
30-23
NRG
41%
7-10
PHA
57%
30-23
5NRG BAN
Overpassproj. removed
NRG
20%
1-4PHA
52%
11-10
NRG
20%
1-4
PHA
52%
11-10
6PHANTOM BAN
Ancientproj. removed
NRG
53%
9-8PHA
46%
21-25
NRG
53%
9-8
PHA
46%
21-25
7DECIDER
Dust2left over
NRG
40%
6-9PHA
48%
21-23
NRG
40%
6-9
PHA
48%
21-23
Projected from each team's veto habits (BO3), assuming NRG vetoes first.
Usual first ban: NRG Dust2 · Phantom Inferno.
Map lab
pick the 3 maps · per-map H2H + predictionlayout
Pick 3 maps ✓
Best-case draws · each side’s strongest realistic Bo3 · tap to load
The veto swings it: NRG 61% on their maps vs Phantom 70% on theirs. Whoever shapes the pool is favoured. Anubis (56%) is the closest to a toss-up.
Phantom50%to win the seriescoin-flipiMap edgesMirage: NRG 71% clear · Nuke: Phantom 64% · Dust2: Phantom 57%WhyPhantom hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesNRG 50%: 2-0 25%, 2-1 24% · Phantom 50%: 2-1 32%, 2-0 19%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
NRG 50%50% Phantom
It’s nearly a coin-flip. Phantom only lead because their Nuke is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.
MirageNRG v PHA
71%29%
17-7record14-15
71%win48%
70%CT win54%
40%T win45%
58%pistol67%
89%convert85%
NukeNRG v PHA
36%64%
7-10record30-23
41%win57%
49%CT win56%
47%T win47%
50%pistol50%
65%convert81%
Dust2NRG v PHA
43%57%
6-9record21-23
40%win48%
49%CT win53%
41%T win47%
37%pistol49%
73%convert81%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
NRGct
NRGt
PHAct
PHAt
NRGpistol
NRGconv
NRGeco
PHApistol
PHAconv
PHAeco
Miragepool
70%175/250
40%88/221
54%178/331
45%126/283
58%28/48
89%24/27
5%1/20
67%39/58
85%33/39
16%3/19
Nukepool
49%87/179
47%76/162
56%298/533
47%282/604
50%17/34
65%11/17
24%4/17
50%53/106
81%43/53
15%8/53
Dust2pool
49%68/138
41%67/164
53%239/453
47%208/439
37%11/30
73%8/11
11%2/19
49%43/88
81%35/43
18%8/45
Anubisban
54%13/24
39%9/23
50%57/113
49%70/142
100%4/4
75%3/4
n/a
46%11/24
73%8/11
8%1/13
Infernoban
55%109/198
51%111/217
63%15/24
63%10/16
63%25/40
84%21/25
13%2/15
50%2/4
100%2/2
0%0/2
Overpassban
40%23/58
44%20/45
58%139/238
43%103/238
40%4/10
50%2/4
17%1/6
60%25/42
76%19/25
6%1/17
Ancientban
55%97/176
41%71/172
51%253/499
48%226/467
59%20/34
70%14/20
0%0/14
55%51/92
75%38/51
20%8/41
colour = vs league averagebelowavgabove
Pistols
Phantom wins more pistol rounds: 54% vs 50%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
After pistol
Win the pistol → Phantom usually win the next round too (82% vs 78%). Lose the pistol → both fight back about the same (13% vs 16%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsMargins
NRG average a 6.1-round margin (18 blown, biggest 12); Phantom average 4.9 (37 blown, 33 OTs). Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
NRG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/63 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 63 maps they won, 22 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs MarsborneDust2from 11 downvs 9INEDust2from 8 downvs MarsborneMiragefrom 6 downvs MarsborneMiragefrom 5 downvs MarsborneOverpassfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/49 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 49 maps they lost, 18 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BIGMirageled 12 · lost 12-16vs VocaMirageled 7 · lost 9-13vs FUTAncientled 7 · lost 13-16vs MarsborneInfernoled 5 · lost 11-13vs MOUZDust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MarsborneDust2from 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni12 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BIGMirageled 12 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini6.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs MarsborneMirage22-19vs 9INEDust225-23vs 9INEOverpass14-16vs VocaDust216-14vs MarsborneMirage19-17
Phantom
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/104 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 104 maps they won, 30 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs aAaDust2from 7 downvs HEROICNukefrom 7 downvs RUSTECMiragefrom 6 downvs Bushido WildcatsNukefrom 6 downvs WashingtonNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i37/104 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 104 maps they lost, 37 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FAVBETAncientled 9 · lost 14-16vs MASONICOverpassled 7 · lost 14-16vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 26-28vs WashingtonOverpassled 6 · lost 11-13vs B8Mirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs aAaDust2from 7 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FAVBETAncientled 9 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi43% · 33Close maps (≤3) · OT43% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 33 went to overtime.vs HYPERSPIRITDust212-16vs FAVBETAnubis13-16vs MASONICOverpass14-16vs MASONICNuke14-16vs STATEOverpass13-16
NRG vs Phantom FAQ
Who is favored to win NRG vs Phantom?
NRG are favored with a 63% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for NRG vs Phantom?
Bookmakers price NRG at 1.65 and Phantom at 2.14 (implied 56% vs 44%).
When do NRG and Phantom play?
NRG vs Phantom is scheduled for 2026-08-09 09:00 UTC at Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier.