Matches / Upcoming / Astralis vs HEROIC
Prediction
Our model gives Astralis a 56% chance to beat HEROIC at StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier. Bookmakers price Astralis at 1.77 and HEROIC at 1.96 (implied 53% vs 47%).
FormatBO3Tier★Form26-20 · 26-26PistolsHER 52%Likely mapsOverpass · Nuke · Dust2
Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents◂ AST fared bettervs 8 shared opponentsHER fared better ▸
FURIA#33-32-6
9z#60-11-2
Astralis vs 9z
Jun 6LNuke5-13HEROIC vs 9z
May 28LInferno14-16Overpass16-12Dust211-13
Aurora#71-42-0
HEROIC vs Aurora
May 9WNuke13-8Dust213-11
G2#80-20-2
Astralis vs G2
Apr 29LDust25-13Overpass9-13HEROIC vs G2
Feb 17LMirage6-13Ancient9-13
MOUZ#111-21-2
Astralis vs MOUZ
Mar 7LAncient16-14Mirage1-13Overpass3-13HEROIC vs MOUZ
Mar 6LDust213-9Mirage8-13Inferno3-13
FUT#129-91-2
Astralis vs FUT
Apr 30WMirage13-5Nuke13-10Apr 11LAncient5-13Mirage5-13Nuke16-14Dust23-13Mar 15WDust28-13Ancient13-4Overpass16-12+4 earlier meetings
HEROIC vs FUT
Mar 7LNuke3-13Ancient13-5Mirage3-13
B8#132-10-2
Astralis vs B8
Apr 5WMirage16-12Nuke8-13Ancient13-8HEROIC vs B8
Feb 15LNuke9-13Ancient4-13
PARIVISION#142-33-2
Astralis 18-25combined map recordHEROIC 10-18edge · Astralis
Firepower
roster ratingsAstralis · avg 1.09 · top +0.12
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staehr | 106 | 1.08 | 82.1 | 72% | 58% | 1.21 |
| jabbi | 106 | 1.04 | 75.5 | 72.1% | 59% | 1.16 |
| phzy | 106 | 1.12 | 71.8 | 71.7% | 31% | 1.12 |
| ryu | 106 | 0.98 | 70.5 | 73% | 51% | 1.07 |
| HooXi | 106 | 0.76 | 61.6 | 67.7% | 54% | 0.89 |
HEROIC · avg 1.07 · top +0.12
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nilo | 118 | 1.18 | 77.2 | 74% | 58% | 1.19 |
| MartinezSa | 20 | 1.25 | 72.1 | 75.8% | 35% | 1.12 |
| susp | 117 | 0.9 | 68.4 | 72.4% | 55% | 1.04 |
| Chr1zN | 117 | 0.89 | 68.7 | 70.1% | 57% | 1.02 |
| Brollan | 20 | 0.87 | 67.7 | 71.3% | 61% | 1 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansVeto read
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps. The veto is live.
Plays: Overpass · Nuke · Dust2 · Removed: Anubis · Ancient · Mirage · Inferno
every map shows both teams' win% (AST / HER)
1ASTRALIS BAN
Anubisproj. removed
AST
n/a
0gHER
n/a
0g
AST
n/a
0g
HER
n/a
0g
Astralis on Anubis
no recent maps
HEROIC on Anubis
no recent maps
2HEROIC BAN
Ancientproj. removed
AST
76%
16-5HER
55%
6-5
AST
76%
16-5
HER
55%
6-5
3ASTRALIS PICK
Overpass
AST
62%
13-8HER
44%
4-5
AST
62%
13-8
HER
44%
4-5
4HEROIC PICK
Nuke
AST
50%
8-8HER
57%
16-12
AST
50%
8-8
HER
57%
16-12
5ASTRALIS BAN
Mirageproj. removed
AST
39%
7-11HER
55%
11-9
AST
39%
7-11
HER
55%
11-9
6HEROIC BAN
Infernoproj. removed
AST
63%
5-3HER
50%
10-10
AST
63%
5-3
HER
50%
10-10
7DECIDER
Dust2left over
AST
30%
6-14HER
54%
14-12
AST
30%
6-14
HER
54%
14-12
Projected from each team's veto habits (BO3), assuming Astralis vetoes first.
Usual first ban: Astralis Anubis · HEROIC Anubis.
Map lab
pick the 3 maps · per-map H2H + predictionlayout
Pick 3 maps ✓
Best-case draws · each side’s strongest realistic Bo3 · tap to load
The veto swings it: Astralis 72% on their maps vs HEROIC 71% on theirs. Whoever shapes the pool is favoured. Anubis (50%) is the closest to a toss-up.
HEROIC57%to win the seriescoin-flipiMap edgesOverpass: Astralis 65% clear · Nuke: HEROIC 57% · Dust2: HEROIC 71% clearWhyHEROIC hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesAstralis 43%: 2-0 28%, 2-1 15% · HEROIC 57%: 2-1 37%, 2-0 20%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Astralis 43%57% HEROIC
It’s nearly a coin-flip. HEROIC only lead because their Dust2 is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.
OverpassAST v HER
65%35%
13-8record4-5
62%win44%
55%CT win60%
51%T win37%
48%pistol50%
75%convert44%
NukeAST v HER
43%57%
8-8record16-12
50%win57%
57%CT win63%
43%T win43%
44%pistol61%
79%convert82%
Dust2AST v HER
29%71%
6-14record14-12
30%win54%
48%CT win60%
37%T win45%
53%pistol42%
86%convert86%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
ASTct
ASTt
HERct
HERt
ASTpistol
ASTconv
ASTeco
HERpistol
HERconv
HEReco
Overpasspool
55%90/163
51%123/240
60%61/102
37%30/81
48%20/42
75%15/20
5%1/22
50%9/18
44%4/9
22%2/9
Nukepool
57%86/152
43%70/163
63%165/262
43%132/306
44%14/32
79%11/14
11%2/18
61%34/56
82%28/34
24%5/21
Dust2pool
48%115/240
37%61/165
60%167/278
45%129/288
53%21/40
86%18/21
11%2/19
42%22/52
86%19/22
13%4/30
Anubisban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Ancientban
63%122/194
53%124/232
50%66/132
51%50/99
55%23/42
91%21/23
5%1/19
41%9/22
89%8/9
23%3/13
Mirageban
50%107/216
42%63/149
55%104/188
45%100/220
39%14/36
93%13/14
14%3/22
58%23/40
87%20/23
29%5/17
Infernoban
66%59/89
47%34/73
50%99/198
54%111/207
50%8/16
100%8/8
63%5/8
53%21/40
90%19/21
37%7/19
colour = vs league averagebelowavgabove
Pistols
HEROIC wins more pistol rounds: 52% vs 48%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
After pistol
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (80% vs 78%). Lose the pistol → HEROIC fight back to win the next round more often (18% vs 8%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsMargins
Astralis average a 5.8-round margin (12 blown, biggest 8); HEROIC average 5.4 (14 blown, 12 OTs). Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Astralis
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i12/56 (21%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 56 maps they won, 12 (21%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 21% of their wins were comebacks, not 21% of all games.vs MOUZAncientfrom 7 downvs EYEBALLERSAncientfrom 7 downvs The MongolZAncientfrom 6 downvs FUTNukefrom 6 downvs fnaticOverpassfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i12/50 (24%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 50 maps they lost, 12 (24%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AuroraDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs GamerLegionInfernoled 8 · lost 14-16vs PARIVISIONDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs SpiritOverpassled 4 · lost 8-13vs paiNNukeled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MOUZAncientfrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AuroraDust2led 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs fnaticMirage12-16vs NRGMirage14-16vs SpiritDust213-16vs PARIVISIONDust213-16vs HEROICDust216-13
HEROIC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/61 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 61 maps they won, 22 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs BIGDust2from 9 downvs Friendly CampersMiragefrom 4 downvs 3DMAXInfernofrom 4 downvs FlyQuestNukefrom 4 downvs PARIVISIONDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/56 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 56 maps they lost, 14 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PhantomNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs AcendInfernoled 6 · lost 14-16vs MonteDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs Lynn VisionDust2led 5 · lost 11-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasNukeled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BIGDust2from 9 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PhantomNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 12Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 12 went to overtime.vs paiNMirage16-14vs CYBERSHOKEDust216-13vs AstralisDust213-16vs MonteDust213-16vs MonteNuke20-22
Astralis vs HEROIC FAQ
Who is favored to win Astralis vs HEROIC?
Astralis are favored with a 56% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for Astralis vs HEROIC?
Bookmakers price Astralis at 1.77 and HEROIC at 1.96 (implied 53% vs 47%).
When do Astralis and HEROIC play?
Astralis vs HEROIC is scheduled for 2026-07-24 16:15 UTC at StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier.