Matches / Upcoming / HEROIC vs ASTRAL
Prediction
Our model gives HEROIC a 68% chance to beat ASTRAL at Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier.
FormatBO3Tier★Form29-27 · 52-49Likely mapsNuke · Ancient · Dust2
Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.
Recent form
HEROIC
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents◂ HER fared bettervs 6 shared opponentsAST fared better ▸
Gentle Mates#430-20-4
HEROIC vs Gentle Mates
May 11LInferno4-13Mirage6-13
Phantom#532-10-4
HEROIC vs Phantom
Jul 16WAncient13-11Nuke14-16Dust213-11
CYBERSHOKE#813-01-2
ASTRAL vs CYBERSHOKE
May 6LMirage8-13Dust213-11Ancient7-13
SAW#2191-02-0
HEROIC vs SAW
Mar 28WMirage13-4ASTRAL vs SAW
May 24WAncient13-9Anubis19-16
Passion UA2-00-2
HEROIC vs Passion UA
Mar 4WOverpass13-5Nuke13-8ASTRAL vs Passion UA
Apr 4LAnubis4-13Inferno3-13FRIFriendly Campers2-01-0
HEROIC vs Friendly Campers
Jan 14WNuke13-2Mirage13-8ASTRAL vs Friendly Campers
Jan 4WAncient13-10HEROIC 10-3combined map recordASTRAL 4-12edge · HEROIC
Firepower
roster ratingsHEROIC · avg 1.12 · top +0.08
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nilo | 128 | 1.19 | 77.4 | 74.3% | 58% | 1.2 |
| MartinezSa | 30 | 1.25 | 69.8 | 76% | 38% | 1.17 |
| Brollan | 30 | 1.01 | 73.5 | 73.5% | 62% | 1.14 |
| susp | 127 | 0.91 | 69.1 | 72.8% | 55% | 1.05 |
| Chr1zN | 127 | 0.9 | 69.8 | 70.7% | 57% | 1.04 |
ASTRAL · avg 1.09 · top +0.11
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| swiz | 151 | 1.1 | 84 | 72.8% | 53% | 1.21 |
| gxx- | 151 | 1.18 | 74.8 | 72.3% | 34% | 1.12 |
| RaY5ive | 217 | 0.97 | 75.4 | 72.1% | 55% | 1.11 |
| Neqy | 217 | 0.91 | 76.4 | 70.6% | 61% | 1.06 |
| ASTR | 66 | 0.9 | 73.6 | 68.9% | 54% | 1.04 |
| meowpop | 215 | 0.93 | 64.8 | 71.5% | 63% | 1.03 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansVeto read
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps. The veto is live.
Plays: Nuke · Ancient · Dust2 · Removed: Anubis · Overpass · Mirage · Inferno
every map shows both teams' win% (HER / AST)
1HEROIC BAN
Anubisproj. removed
HER
n/a
0gAST
53%
16-14
HER
n/a
0g
AST
53%
16-14
HEROIC on Anubis
no recent maps
2ASTRAL BAN
Overpassproj. removed
HER
44%
4-5AST
n/a
0g
HER
44%
4-5
AST
n/a
0g
HEROIC on Overpass
W
9z
16–12
2mo ago
W
BIG
13–7
4mo ago
L
BetBoom
7–13
4mo ago
L
Tricked
11–13
5mo ago
W
FURIA
13–3
5mo ago
W
Passion UA
13–5
5mo ago
L
Astralis
10–13
5mo ago
L
FaZe
5–13
6mo agoASTRAL on Overpass
no recent maps
3HEROIC PICK
Nuke
HER
57%
17-13AST
40%
17-25
HER
57%
17-13
AST
40%
17-25
4ASTRAL PICK
Ancient
HER
53%
8-7AST
59%
27-19
HER
53%
8-7
AST
59%
27-19
5HEROIC BAN
Mirageproj. removed
HER
59%
13-9AST
48%
14-15
HER
59%
13-9
AST
48%
14-15
6ASTRAL BAN
Infernoproj. removed
HER
52%
11-10AST
41%
11-16
HER
52%
11-10
AST
41%
11-16
7DECIDER
Dust2left over
HER
56%
15-12AST
56%
24-19
HER
56%
15-12
AST
56%
24-19
Projected from each team's veto habits (BO3), assuming HEROIC vetoes first.
Usual first ban: HEROIC Anubis · ASTRAL Overpass.
Map lab
pick the 3 maps · per-map H2H + predictionlayout
Pick 3 maps ✓
Best-case draws · each side’s strongest realistic Bo3 · tap to load
The veto swings it: HEROIC 67% on their maps vs ASTRAL 53% on theirs. Whoever shapes the pool is favoured. Anubis (50%) is the closest to a toss-up.
HEROIC55%to win the seriescoin-flipiMap edgesNuke: HEROIC 65% · Ancient: ASTRAL 55% toss-up · Dust2: ASTRAL 50% toss-upWhyASTRAL are favoured on 2 of 3 maps, but only barely: the other maps are near 50/50 (Ancient & Dust2), so HEROIC just need to steal one (~72% to grab at least one).OutcomesHEROIC 55%: 2-0 29%, 2-1 26% · ASTRAL 45%: 2-1 26%, 2-0 19%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
HEROIC 55%45% ASTRAL
It’s nearly a coin-flip. HEROIC only lead because their Nuke is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.
NukeHER v AST
65%35%
17-13record17-25
57%win40%
63%CT win53%
43%T win42%
62%pistol48%
78%convert90%
AncientHER v AST
45%55%
8-7record27-19
53%win59%
55%CT win59%
47%T win46%
50%pistol52%
93%convert75%
Dust2HER v AST
50%50%
15-12record24-19
56%win56%
60%CT win57%
45%T win50%
43%pistol59%
87%convert84%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
HERct
HERt
ASTct
ASTt
HERpistol
HERconv
HEReco
ASTpistol
ASTconv
ASTeco
Nukepool
63%177/281
43%141/327
53%236/443
42%175/413
62%37/60
78%29/37
23%5/22
48%40/84
90%36/40
21%9/43
Ancientpool
55%98/178
47%63/134
59%265/447
46%227/491
50%15/30
93%13/14
20%3/15
52%48/92
75%36/48
14%6/44
Dust2pool
60%173/289
45%136/300
57%238/421
50%228/457
43%23/54
87%20/23
13%4/31
59%51/86
84%42/50
20%7/35
Anubisban
n/a
n/a
52%156/300
51%155/301
n/a
n/a
n/a
53%32/60
94%30/32
14%4/28
Overpassban
60%61/102
37%30/81
n/a
n/a
50%9/18
44%4/9
22%2/9
n/a
n/a
n/a
Mirageban
58%118/204
45%111/244
54%164/305
43%126/294
57%25/44
88%22/25
26%5/19
47%27/58
85%23/27
16%5/31
Infernoban
52%109/210
54%114/210
48%137/288
44%113/257
52%22/42
91%20/22
40%8/20
46%25/54
72%18/25
21%6/29
colour = vs league averagebelowavgabove
Pistols
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (HEROIC 52%, ASTRAL 53%). Nobody has an edge.
After pistol
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (84% vs 83%). Lose the pistol → both fight back about the same (18% vs 18%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsMargins
HEROIC average a 5.4-round margin (16 blown, biggest 7); ASTRAL average 5.6 (33 blown, 23 OTs). Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
HEROIC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i24/68 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 68 maps they won, 24 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs BIGDust2from 9 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasMiragefrom 8 downvs Friendly CampersMiragefrom 4 downvs 3DMAXInfernofrom 4 downvs FlyQuestNukefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/59 (27%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 16 (27%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PhantomNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs AcendInfernoled 6 · lost 14-16vs MonteDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs Lynn VisionDust2led 5 · lost 11-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasNukeled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BIGDust2from 9 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PhantomNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 13Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 13 went to overtime.vs paiNMirage16-14vs CYBERSHOKEDust216-13vs AstralisDust213-16vs MonteDust213-16vs MonteNuke20-22
ASTRAL
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/109 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 109 maps they won, 34 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs SangalDust2from 8 downvs HEROIC AcademyNukefrom 7 downvs CYBERSHOKEDust2from 7 downvs BRUTEAnubisfrom 6 downvs WalczakiMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i33/108 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 108 maps they lost, 33 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LavkedDust2led 8 · lost 15-19vs UrsaDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs ex-Zero TenacityAnubisled 5 · lost 14-16vs AMInfernoled 5 · lost 9-13vs LeoDust2led 5 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs SangalDust2from 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LavkedDust2led 8 · lost 15-19
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 23Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 23 went to overtime.vs AaBAncient16-14vs BRUTEMirage16-19vs HYPERSPIRITMirage16-14vs ex-Zero TenacityAnubis14-16vs OmegaDust215-19
HEROIC vs ASTRAL FAQ
Who is favored to win HEROIC vs ASTRAL?
HEROIC are favored with a 68% model win probability.
What are the betting odds for HEROIC vs ASTRAL?
Match odds for HEROIC vs ASTRAL aren't available yet. Check back closer to the match.
When do HEROIC and ASTRAL play?
HEROIC vs ASTRAL is scheduled for 2026-08-09 09:00 UTC at Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier.