Matches / Upcoming / Butterfly vs G2 Ares
Prediction
Our model gives Butterfly a 55% chance to beat G2 Ares at CCT 2026 Europe Series 5. Limited data on this matchup, so the read stays close to the market. Bookmakers price Butterfly at 1.85 and G2 Ares at 1.85 (implied 50% vs 50%).
FormatBO3Form1-0 · 28-20PistolsG2 56%Likely mapsAncient · Overpass · Mirage
Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.
Recent form
Butterfly
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Firepower
roster ratingsButterfly · avg 1.25 · top +0.19
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nitzie | 2 | 2.05 | 96.7 | 78.6% | 32% | 1.44 |
| Kurama | 2 | 1.2 | 83.5 | 78% | 56% | 1.37 |
| ayano | 2 | 1.39 | 83.8 | 85.8% | 57% | 1.26 |
| k1ssly | 2 | 1.5 | 74.6 | 78% | 42% | 1.23 |
| Forester | 2 | 1 | 70.7 | 84.2% | 62% | 0.96 |
G2 Ares · avg 1.09 · top +0.14
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tAk | 107 | 1.15 | 84.9 | 74.8% | 48% | 1.23 |
| Junyme | 107 | 1.15 | 73.6 | 73.2% | 38% | 1.15 |
| hitori | 107 | 0.98 | 75.7 | 71.3% | 54% | 1.1 |
| yksjupe | 107 | 0.89 | 68.6 | 71.4% | 52% | 1.01 |
| SHiNE | 107 | 0.88 | 63.2 | 70.6% | 55% | 0.96 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansVeto read
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps. The veto is live.
Plays: Ancient · Overpass · Mirage · Removed: Inferno · Nuke · Anubis · Dust2
every map shows both teams' win% (BUT / G2 )
1BUTTERFLY BAN
Infernoproj. removed
BUT
n/a
0gG2
50%
10-10
BUT
n/a
0g
G2
50%
10-10
Butterfly on Inferno
no recent maps
2G2 ARES BAN
Nukeproj. removed
BUT
n/a
0gG2
n/a
0g
BUT
n/a
0g
G2
n/a
0g
Butterfly on Nuke
no recent maps
G2 Ares on Nuke
no recent maps
3BUTTERFLY PICK
Ancient
BUT
100%
1-0G2
47%
8-9
BUT
100%
1-0
G2
47%
8-9
4G2 ARES PICK
Overpass
BUT
n/a
0gG2
53%
10-9
BUT
n/a
0g
G2
53%
10-9
Butterfly on Overpass
no recent maps
5BUTTERFLY BAN
Anubisproj. removed
BUT
n/a
0gG2
40%
4-6
BUT
n/a
0g
G2
40%
4-6
Butterfly on Anubis
no recent maps
6G2 ARES BAN
Dust2proj. removed
BUT
n/a
0gG2
65%
11-6
BUT
n/a
0g
G2
65%
11-6
Butterfly on Dust2
no recent maps
7DECIDER
Mirageleft over
BUT
n/a
0gG2
61%
14-9
BUT
n/a
0g
G2
61%
14-9
Butterfly on Mirage
no recent maps
Projected from each team's veto habits (BO3), assuming Butterfly vetoes first.
Usual first ban: Butterfly Anubis · G2 Ares Nuke.
Map lab
pick the 3 maps · per-map H2H + predictionlayout
Pick 3 maps ✓
Best-case draws · each side’s strongest realistic Bo3 · tap to load
The veto swings it: Butterfly 52% on their maps vs G2 Ares 50% on theirs. Whoever shapes the pool is favoured. Mirage (50%) is the closest to a toss-up.
Butterfly52%to win the seriescoin-flipiMap edgesAncient: Butterfly 53% toss-up · Overpass: Butterfly 50% toss-up · Mirage: Butterfly 50% toss-upWhyButterfly hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesButterfly 52%: 2-0 27%, 2-1 25% · G2 Ares 48%: 2-1 25%, 2-0 23%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Butterfly 52%48% G2 Ares
It’s nearly a coin-flip. Butterfly only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.
AncientBUT v G2
53%47%
1-0record8-9
100%win47%
83%CT win53%
67%T win42%
50%pistol50%
100%convert82%
OverpassBUT v G2
50%50%
thin sample, read with caution
0-0record10-9
–win53%
–CT win62%
–T win40%
–pistol58%
–convert77%
MirageBUT v G2
50%50%
thin sample, read with caution
0-0record14-9
–win61%
–CT win59%
–T win48%
–pistol59%
–convert78%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
BUTct
BUTt
G2 ct
G2 t
BUTpistol
BUTconv
BUTeco
G2 pistol
G2 conv
G2 eco
Ancientpool
83%5/6
67%8/12
53%100/187
42%76/180
50%1/2
100%1/1
100%1/1
50%17/34
82%14/17
24%4/17
Overpasspool
n/a
n/a
62%113/183
40%87/216
n/a
n/a
n/a
58%22/38
77%17/22
6%1/16
Miragepool
n/a
n/a
59%121/206
48%126/261
n/a
n/a
n/a
59%27/46
78%21/27
26%5/19
Infernoban
n/a
n/a
57%110/194
48%97/203
n/a
n/a
n/a
53%21/40
71%15/21
32%6/19
Nukeban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Anubisban
n/a
n/a
53%51/97
44%49/111
n/a
n/a
n/a
25%5/20
80%4/5
13%2/15
Dust2ban
n/a
n/a
53%103/193
51%96/190
n/a
n/a
n/a
62%21/34
57%12/21
23%3/13
colour = vs league averagebelowavgabove
Pistols
G2 Ares wins more pistol rounds: 56% vs 50%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
After pistol
Win the pistol → Butterfly usually win the next round too (100% vs 79%). Lose the pistol → Butterfly fight back to win the next round more often (100% vs 19%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsMargins
Butterfly average a 5.5-round margin (0 blown, biggest 0); G2 Ares average 5.1 (11 blown, 15 OTs). Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Butterfly
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/2 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 1 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs benched godsCachefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/0 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 0 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs benched godsCachefrom 4 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni0 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi50% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT50% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
G2 Ares
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/57 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 57 maps they won, 19 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 downvs DONSTUAnubisfrom 7 downvs LilmixAncientfrom 7 downvs WWDust2from 6 downvs STATEMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i11/50 (22%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 50 maps they lost, 11 (22%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs UNiTYInfernoled 5 · lost 11-13vs OmegaMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs LavkedMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs ex-RUBYOverpassled 5 · lost 11-13vs Imperial AcademyInfernoled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs UNiTYInfernoled 5 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 15Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 15 went to overtime.vs WWDust219-16vs UNiTYOverpass19-17vs zajezdzaczeDust216-14vs LavkedOverpass16-13vs aAaOverpass19-16
Butterfly vs G2 Ares FAQ
Who is favored to win Butterfly vs G2 Ares?
Butterfly are favored with a 55% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for Butterfly vs G2 Ares?
Bookmakers price Butterfly at 1.85 and G2 Ares at 1.85 (implied 50% vs 50%).
When do Butterfly and G2 Ares play?
Butterfly vs G2 Ares is scheduled for 2026-07-24 17:00 UTC at CCT 2026 Europe Series 5.