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Predictions / Black Phoenix vs PsychoFace · match preview
Black Phoenix vs PsychoFace: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 8
Black Phoenix
World #80 · 21-19
VS
2026-09-08 17:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 8 · Best of 3
PsychoFace
World #136 · 13-22
50%50%
The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 50–50. No odds yet. Form slightly favours Black Phoenix, firepower clearly favours PsychoFace.
Likely mapsDust2 · Nuke · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Black PhoenixpullPsychoFace
Team strength1517
149555/45 BLA
Track record21–19
13–2253/47 BLA
Recent formWLLLW
LLWLW57/43 BLA
Roster rating0.95
1.0992/8 PSY
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 96% our own signal (98 maps of Black Phoenix, 88 of PsychoFace).
Bottom line: Black Phoenix to beat PsychoFace, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Black Phoenix
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsEX-ex-RUBY#784-20-6
PsychoFace vs ex-RUBY
Jul 18LDust28-13Mirage12-16Jul 18LNuke9-13Mirage9-13May 26LDust211-13Ancient4-13
UNiTY#941-42-4
JUSJust Players#962-21-2
PsychoFace vs Just Players
Sep 6LMirage9-13Nuke13-8Dust210-13
HYPERSPIRIT#1352-11-2
Black Phoenix vs HYPERSPIRIT
Aug 26WAnubis8-13Dust213-3Inferno13-7PsychoFace vs HYPERSPIRIT
Jun 4LOverpass13-8Mirage11-13Dust214-16
Enjoy#1512-13-3
Black Phoenix vs Enjoy
Jul 28WCache13-9Dust26-13Mirage13-10Firepower
roster ratingsBlack Phoenix · avg 0.95 · top +0.14
PsychoFace · avg 1.09 · top +0.14
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lov1kus | 9 | 1.08 | 79.8 | 74.9% | 58% | 1.23 |
| eightz999 | 88 | 1.1 | 76.1 | 70.7% | 41% | 1.12 |
| anttzz | 27 | 0.94 | 74.9 | 70.3% | 61% | 1.09 |
| PsychoDoctor | 88 | 1 | 68.4 | 74.3% | 52% | 1.05 |
| facecrack | 88 | 0.84 | 70.2 | 69.8% | 51% | 0.95 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Black Phoenix vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
PsychoFace habitually bans Inferno, Black Phoenix's strongest maps (Inferno, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 22/36), not an opponent read, so expect Black Phoenix to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapBLAPSY
AncientBLA bann/a0g20%1-4
Black Phoenix on Ancient
no recent maps
InfernoPSY ban70%7-325%1-3
Dust2BLA pick54%15-1352%14-13
NukePSY pick53%8-740%6-9
AnubisBLA ban0%0-1150%4-4
MiragePSY ban38%6-1033%6-12
Cachedecider70%7-350%1-1
Each team's usual first ban: Black Phoenix Ancient · PsychoFace Inferno.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Black Phoenix59%to win the seriesiMap edgesDust2: Black Phoenix 52% toss-up · Nuke: Black Phoenix 62% · Cache: Black Phoenix 56% toss-upWhyBlack Phoenix hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesBlack Phoenix 59%: 2-0 32%, 2-1 28% · PsychoFace 41%: 2-1 22%, 2-0 19%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Black Phoenix 59%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Black Phoenix only lead because their Nuke is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.41% PsychoFace
Dust2
Black Phoenix52%PsychoFace48%
15-13record14-13
54%win52%
55%CT win52%
48%T win55%
45%pistol67%
88%convert86%
Nuke
Black Phoenix62%PsychoFace38%
8-7record6-9
53%win40%
62%CT win59%
39%T win43%
47%pistol67%
100%convert60%
Cache
Black Phoenix56%PsychoFace44%
7-3record1-1
70%win50%
51%CT win41%
49%T win50%
60%pistol50%
58%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
BLAct
BLAt
PSYct
PSYt
BLApistol
BLAconv
BLAeco
PSYpistol
PSYconv
PSYeco
Dust2pool
55%133/240
48%159/333
52%141/272
55%163/298
45%25/56
88%22/25
13%4/31
67%36/54
86%30/35
33%6/18
Nukepool
62%100/162
39%63/161
59%80/136
43%72/168
47%14/30
100%14/14
6%1/16
67%20/30
60%12/20
20%2/10
Cachepool
51%60/118
49%48/97
41%9/22
50%12/24
60%12/20
58%7/12
0%0/8
50%2/4
100%2/2
0%0/2
Ancientban
n/a
n/a
40%16/40
38%20/52
n/a
n/a
n/a
60%6/10
50%3/6
50%2/4
Infernoban
58%64/110
51%53/103
40%19/48
49%21/43
60%12/20
83%10/12
0%0/8
38%3/8
100%3/3
40%2/5
Anubisban
38%45/120
31%30/98
58%56/96
47%36/76
36%8/22
25%2/8
21%3/14
69%11/16
82%9/11
60%3/5
Mirageban
46%88/192
48%77/161
52%112/214
42%68/163
41%13/32
92%12/13
16%3/19
44%16/36
88%14/16
15%3/20
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
PsychoFace wins more pistol rounds: 66% vs 48%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Black Phoenix usually win the next round too (84% vs 77%). Lose the pistol → PsychoFace fight back to win the next round more often (27% vs 9%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Black Phoenix
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i15/43 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 43 maps they won, 15 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 downvs CYBERSHOKECachefrom 7 downvs EnjoyMiragefrom 5 downvs ButterflyDust2from 4 downvs LavkedMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/47 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 47 maps they lost, 15 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LavkedMirageled 8 · lost 13-16vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 8-13vs ButterflyNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs BebopNukeled 4 · lost 8-13vs ButterflyInfernoled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 down · won 25-23
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LavkedMirageled 8 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs LavkedMirage16-13vs WalczakiCache25-23vs ex-RUSTECInferno14-16vs BBLInferno16-13vs LavkedMirage13-16
PsychoFace
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/40 (23%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 40 maps they won, 9 (23%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 23% of their wins were comebacks, not 23% of all games.vs The Last ResortMiragefrom 5 downvs G2 AresMiragefrom 5 downvs brazylijski luzDust2from 4 downvs G2 AresOverpassfrom 4 downvs EnjoyCachefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/48 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 48 maps they lost, 20 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs HYPERSPIRITMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs UNiTYDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs HEROIC AcademyMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs brazylijski luzDust2led 6 · lost 14-16vs Virtus.proMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The Last ResortMiragefrom 5 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs HYPERSPIRITMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs UrsaNuke13-16vs UNiTYAnubis14-16vs UNiTYDust216-13vs LeoDust218-22vs HEROIC AcademyAnubis16-14