Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / Fire Flux vs Drama · match preview
Fire Flux vs Drama: CS2 match prediction · ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe
Fire Flux
World #143 · 16-17
VS
2026-09-09 17:30 UTC
ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · Best of 3
Drama
World #– · 4-8
58%42%
46%
1.981.68Market · 3 books
54%The call
Fire Flux are favoured: our model gives them 58% against Drama. Bookmakers lean Drama at 54%. Strength slightly favours Fire Flux, record slightly favours Fire Flux.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Fire FluxpullDrama
Team strength1512
147558/42 FIR
Track record16–17
4–865/35 FIR
Recent formLWLWL
LWWLL53/47 DRA
Roster rating1.08
151/49 DRA
Bookmakers imply 46% for Fire Flux (1.98 / 1.68); we land 12 points higher at 58%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 86% our own signal (85 maps of Fire Flux, 25 of Drama).
Bottom line: Fire Flux to beat Drama, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Fire Flux
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Firepower
roster ratingsFire Flux · avg 1.08 · top +0.15
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quality | 85 | 1.21 | 86 | 74.6% | 59% | 1.23 |
| zemix | 85 | 0.93 | 77.2 | 72% | 56% | 1.13 |
| xEternaLxx | 85 | 1.01 | 70.8 | 71.2% | 58% | 1.09 |
| zer0UKY | 85 | 1.06 | 63.1 | 70.6% | 36% | 1 |
| Cizzx | 85 | 0.87 | 67.7 | 70.9% | 55% | 0.97 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Fire Flux vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Drama habitually bans Anubis, Fire Flux's strongest maps (Inferno, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 10/12), not an opponent read, so expect Fire Flux to fight the veto for Anubis.
MapFIRDRA
AncientFIR ban29%2-538%3-5
AnubisDRA ban67%12-6n/a0g
Fire Flux on Anubis
L
Noir Verse9–131d agoWBOJONG13–102d agoW
Strael Bora13–118d agoW
Virtus.pro13–68d agoL
Metizport7–1319d agoW
Entropy16–1219d agoL
NEW VISION7–1323d agoWGUESS13–224d agoDrama on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2FIR pick45%9-1125%1-3
MirageDRA pick45%5-667%4-2
NukeFIR ban50%4-40%0-1
CacheDRA ban50%4-4n/a0g
Fire Flux on Cache
W
Inner Circle Academy19–177d agoL
PCIFIC10–1320d agoW
Omega19–1620d agoWGUESS16–1422d agoL
BAKS8–1324d agoL
BASEMENT BOYS17–191mo agoL
Bushido Wildcats6–131mo agoWBASEMENT BOYS13–101mo agoDrama on Cache
no recent maps
Infernodecider62%8-525%1-3
Each team's usual first ban: Fire Flux Overpass · Drama Anubis.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Fire Flux55%to win the seriesiMap edgesDust2: Fire Flux 58% · Mirage: Drama 66% clear · Inferno: Fire Flux 67% clearWhyFire Flux hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesFire Flux 55%: 2-1 35%, 2-0 20% · Drama 45%: 2-0 28%, 2-1 18%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Fire Flux 55%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Fire Flux only lead because their Inferno & Dust2 is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.45% Drama
Dust2
Fire Flux58%Drama42%
9-11record1-3
45%win25%
52%CT win47%
50%T win33%
60%pistol25%
96%convert100%
Mirage
Fire Flux34%Drama66%
5-6record4-2
45%win67%
46%CT win56%
48%T win55%
64%pistol75%
100%convert89%
Inferno
Fire Flux67%Drama33%
8-5record1-3
62%win25%
50%CT win42%
56%T win54%
58%pistol50%
80%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
FIRct
FIRt
DRAct
DRAt
FIRpistol
FIRconv
FIReco
DRApistol
DRAconv
DRAeco
Dust2pool
52%97/187
50%111/223
47%14/30
33%14/42
60%24/40
96%23/24
13%2/16
25%2/8
100%2/2
17%1/6
Miragepool
46%61/132
48%46/96
56%35/62
55%31/56
64%14/22
100%14/14
25%2/8
75%9/12
89%8/9
0%0/3
Infernopool
50%70/139
56%72/128
42%14/33
54%26/48
58%15/26
80%12/15
9%1/11
50%4/8
100%4/4
50%2/4
Ancientban
48%38/80
38%25/66
44%35/79
42%35/83
36%5/14
80%4/5
11%1/9
31%5/16
80%4/5
0%0/11
Anubisban
55%103/188
52%103/197
n/a
n/a
67%24/36
63%15/24
8%1/12
n/a
n/a
n/a
Nukeban
44%39/89
46%29/63
67%8/12
10%1/10
50%8/16
88%7/8
0%0/8
50%1/2
0%0/1
100%1/1
Cacheban
41%35/86
52%50/96
n/a
n/a
56%9/16
100%9/9
0%0/7
n/a
n/a
n/a
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Fire Flux wins more pistol rounds: 60% vs 54%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (92% vs 93%). Lose the pistol → Drama fight back to win the next round more often (23% vs 14%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Fire Flux
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i16/44 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 44 maps they won, 16 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs PrivateerNukefrom 8 downvs PCIFICDust2from 7 downvs BRUTEMiragefrom 6 downvs Bushido WildcatsNukefrom 6 downvs BOJONGAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/41 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 41 maps they lost, 18 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Inner Circle AcademyDust2led 5 · lost 14-16vs BOJONGAncientled 5 · lost 8-13vs benched godsDust2led 4 · lost 17-19vs bankaPEPSIInfernoled 4 · lost 11-13vs ALGONukeled 4 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PrivateerNukefrom 8 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Inner Circle AcademyDust2led 5 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs PalaceNuke16-13vs benched godsDust217-19vs BRUTEMirage16-12vs BASEMENT BOYSCache17-19vs GUESSCache16-14
Drama
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/9 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 9 maps they won, 2 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs HYPERSPIRITMiragefrom 3 downvs fnaticAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/16 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 16 maps they lost, 7 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs yngodsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs Eternal FireInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs FaZeNukeled 6 · lost 9-13vs HYPERSPIRITAncientled 4 · lost 10-13vs magicInfernoled 4 · lost 5-13
Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs HYPERSPIRITMiragefrom 3 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs yngodsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini6.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi24% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT24% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs fnaticAncient16-14