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Predictions / Dark Moon vs Spirit Academy Green · match preview
Dark Moon vs Spirit Academy Green: CS2 match prediction · ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe
DARSPI
Dark Moon
World #– · 3-7
VS
2026-09-09 17:30 UTC
ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · Best of 3
Spirit Academy Green
World #– · 1-0
35%65%
The call · high confidence
Spirit Academy Green are favoured: our model gives them 65% against Dark Moon. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Spirit Academy Green, record clearly favours Spirit Academy Green, form slightly favours Dark Moon, firepower clearly favours Spirit Academy Green.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Dark MoonpullSpirit Academy Green
Team strength1460
151361/39 SPI
Track record3–7
1–087/13 SPI
Recent formWLWLL
W59/41 DAR
Roster rating0.97
1.54100/0 SPI
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 44% our own signal (21 maps of Dark Moon, 2 of Spirit Academy Green; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: Spirit Academy Green to beat Dark Moon, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Dark Moon
Spirit Academy Green
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Firepower
roster ratingsDark Moon · avg 0.97 · top +0.2
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| modeSavage | 11 | 1.18 | 79.9 | 68.7% | 44% | 1.17 |
| Maison | 17 | 0.9 | 70.6 | 63.7% | 55% | 1.09 |
| keiyon | 21 | 0.84 | 68.2 | 68.8% | 67% | 0.95 |
| ri0dayungog | 21 | 0.78 | 59.7 | 61.6% | 59% | 0.83 |
| d3j4vy | 21 | 0.67 | 64.9 | 61.8% | 50% | 0.79 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Dark Moon vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapDARSPI
InfernoDAR ban0%0-1n/a0g
Dark Moon on Inferno
L
CYBERSHOKE Prospects10–132mo agoSpirit Academy Green on Inferno
no recent maps
NukeSPI bann/a0gn/a0g
Dark Moon on Nuke
no recent maps
Spirit Academy Green on Nuke
no recent maps
Dust2DAR pick43%3-4100%1-0
Dark Moon on Dust2
W
Noir Verse13–81d agoL
BASEMENT BOYS6–131d agoWBanda Chuya13–52d agoW
Game Point13–103mo agoL
Omega6–133mo agoL
1win8–133mo agoL
CYBERSHOKE11–133mo agoSpirit Academy Green on Dust2
W
KUUSAMO13–42d agoMirageSPI pick40%2-3100%1-0
Dark Moon on Mirage
WNoir Verse13–111d agoLBASEMENT BOYS6–131d agoWBanda Chuya13–72d agoL
DEPO9–132mo agoL1win5–133mo agoSpirit Academy Green on Mirage
WKUUSAMO13–32d agoAnubisDAR bann/a0gn/a0g
Dark Moon on Anubis
no recent maps
Spirit Academy Green on Anubis
no recent maps
CacheSPI bann/a0gn/a0g
Dark Moon on Cache
no recent maps
Spirit Academy Green on Cache
no recent maps
Ancientdecider0%0-6n/a0g
Dark Moon on Ancient
LDEPO2–132mo agoLCYBERSHOKE Prospects4–132mo agoLDEPO5–133mo agoLGame Point10–133mo agoLOmega4–133mo agoLCYBERSHOKE3–133mo agoSpirit Academy Green on Ancient
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: Dark Moon Inferno · Spirit Academy Green Inferno.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Spirit Academy Green54%to win the seriesiMap edgesDust2: Spirit Academy Green 54% toss-up · Mirage: Spirit Academy Green 54% toss-up · Ancient: Spirit Academy Green 50% toss-upWhySpirit Academy Green hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesDark Moon 46%: 2-1 25%, 2-0 21% · Spirit Academy Green 54%: 2-0 29%, 2-1 25%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Dark Moon 46%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Spirit Academy Green only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.54% Spirit Academy Green
Dust2
Dark Moon46%Spirit Academy Green54%
3-4record1-0
43%win100%
48%CT win60%
49%T win83%
64%pistol50%
67%convert100%
Mirage
Dark Moon46%Spirit Academy Green54%
2-3record1-0
40%win100%
35%CT win75%
55%T win100%
30%pistol50%
100%convert100%
Ancient
Dark Moon50%Spirit Academy Green50%
thin sample, read with caution
0-6record0-0
0%win–
25%CT win–
27%T win–
25%pistol–
67%convert–
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
DARct
DARt
SPIct
SPIt
DARpistol
DARconv
DAReco
SPIpistol
SPIconv
SPIeco
Dust2pool
48%32/67
49%38/78
60%3/5
83%10/12
64%9/14
67%6/9
0%0/5
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
Miragepool
35%18/52
55%28/51
75%9/12
100%4/4
30%3/10
100%3/3
29%2/7
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
Ancientpool
25%13/51
27%15/55
n/a
n/a
25%3/12
67%2/3
22%2/9
n/a
n/a
n/a
Infernoban
42%5/12
45%5/11
n/a
n/a
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
n/a
n/a
n/a
Nukeban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Anubisban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Cacheban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Spirit Academy Green wins more pistol rounds: 50% vs 42%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Spirit Academy Green usually win the next round too (100% vs 73%). Lose the pistol → Dark Moon fight back to win the next round more often (19% vs 0%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Dark Moon
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/6 (17%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 6 maps they won, 1 (17%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 17% of their wins were comebacks, not 17% of all games.vs Game PointOverpassfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/15 (47%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 15 maps they lost, 7 (47%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs BASEMENT BOYSDust2led 4 · lost 6-13vs 1winMirageled 3 · lost 5-13vs 1winDust2led 3 · lost 8-13vs OmegaDust2led 3 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Game PointOverpassfrom 4 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs DEPOOverpass13-16
Spirit Academy Green
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/2 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/0 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 0 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 2 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni0 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini9.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample