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Predictions / Spirit Academy vs Mai Tai · match preview
Spirit Academy vs Mai Tai: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 6
Spirit Academy
World #110 · 9-6
VS
2026-09-07 11:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 6 · Best of 3
Mai Tai
World #– · 7-17
74%26%
The call · high confidence
Spirit Academy are favoured: our model gives them 74% against Mai Tai. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours Spirit Academy, record clearly favours Spirit Academy, form slightly favours Spirit Academy, firepower clearly favours Spirit Academy.
Likely mapsAncient · Mirage · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Spirit AcademypullMai Tai
Team strength1539
139079/21 SPI
Track record9–6
7–1776/24 SPI
Recent formLLWWL
LLLWL64/36 SPI
Roster rating1.08
0.9485/15 SPI
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 88% our own signal (32 maps of Spirit Academy, 52 of Mai Tai).
Bottom line: Spirit Academy to beat Mai Tai, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Spirit Academy
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Bushido Wildcats#690-20-2
Spirit Academy vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 5LNuke4-13Dust27-13Mai Tai vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 2LNuke5-13Dust27-13Firepower
roster ratingsSpirit Academy · avg 1.08 · top +0.07
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Spirit Academy vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSPIMAI
InfernoSPI bann/a0gn/a0g
Spirit Academy on Inferno
no recent maps
Mai Tai on Inferno
no recent maps
AnubisMAI ban100%2-020%1-4
AncientSPI pick100%7-057%4-3
MirageMAI pick33%1-238%6-10
CacheSPI ban33%1-250%2-2
Dust2MAI ban50%5-533%2-4
Nukedecider33%2-417%1-5
Each team's usual first ban: Spirit Academy Inferno · Mai Tai Inferno.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Spirit Academy76%to win the seriesiMap edgesAncient: Spirit Academy 86% clear · Mirage: Spirit Academy 51% toss-up · Nuke: Spirit Academy 64%WhySpirit Academy hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesSpirit Academy 76%: 2-0 44%, 2-1 32% · Mai Tai 24%: 2-1 18%, 2-0 7%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Spirit Academy 76%Spirit Academy are the clearer side here: the most likely result is Spirit Academy 2-0.24% Mai Tai
Ancient
Spirit Academy86%Mai Tai14%
7-0record4-3
100%win57%
68%CT win52%
54%T win53%
43%pistol57%
100%convert100%
Mirage
Spirit Academy51%Mai Tai49%
1-2record6-10
33%win38%
42%CT win51%
38%T win49%
33%pistol44%
100%convert71%
Nuke
Spirit Academy64%Mai Tai36%
2-4record1-5
33%win17%
47%CT win39%
38%T win27%
58%pistol50%
86%convert33%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
SPIct
SPIt
MAIct
MAIt
SPIpistol
SPIconv
SPIeco
MAIpistol
MAIconv
MAIeco
Ancientpool
68%48/71
54%43/80
52%41/79
53%33/62
43%6/14
100%6/6
25%2/8
57%8/14
100%8/8
17%1/6
Miragepool
42%14/33
38%8/21
51%80/157
49%95/192
33%2/6
100%2/2
25%1/4
44%14/32
71%10/14
22%4/18
Nukepool
47%22/47
38%27/72
39%24/61
27%14/52
58%7/12
86%6/7
20%1/5
50%6/12
33%2/6
0%0/6
Infernoban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Anubisban
54%13/24
62%13/21
29%16/55
61%35/57
50%2/4
100%2/2
0%0/2
60%6/10
83%5/6
75%3/4
Cacheban
55%17/31
41%14/34
50%22/44
46%17/37
50%3/6
67%2/3
0%0/3
38%3/8
100%3/3
0%0/5
Dust2ban
48%53/111
47%43/91
50%36/72
35%21/60
40%8/20
88%7/8
0%0/11
42%5/12
80%4/5
14%1/7
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (Spirit Academy 47%, Mai Tai 48%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → Spirit Academy usually win the next round too (93% vs 71%). Lose the pistol → Spirit Academy fight back to win the next round more often (24% vs 17%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Spirit Academy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i7/19 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 19 maps they won, 7 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs aimclubDust2from 7 downvs DONSTUAnubisfrom 6 downvs sleepersAncientfrom 4 downvs BetclicNukefrom 3 downvs PsychoFaceCachefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/13 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 13 maps they lost, 4 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Nuclear TigeRESCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs Just PlayersDust2led 4 · lost 13-16vs Just PlayersNukeled 3 · lost 10-13vs Bushido WildcatsNukeled 3 · lost 4-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs aimclubDust2from 7 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Nuclear TigeRESCacheled 6 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs BetclicNuke19-17vs Just PlayersDust213-16vs Young TigeRESDust225-22vs Nuclear TigeRESCache13-16vs ex-RUSTECDust213-16
Mai Tai
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/16 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 16 maps they won, 5 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs eternal premiumDust2from 5 downvs BERGMiragefrom 5 downvs ROUNDSAncientfrom 3 downvs ROUNDSNukefrom 3 downvs MisaMiragefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i9/28 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 28 maps they lost, 9 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs eternal premiumMirageled 5 · lost 13-16vs MisaDust2led 5 · lost 10-13vs HonvédDust2led 4 · lost 11-13vs BASEMENT BOYSMirageled 4 · lost 14-16vs WBTAnubisled 4 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs eternal premiumDust2from 5 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs eternal premiumMirageled 5 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs eternal premiumMirage13-16vs BASEMENT BOYSMirage14-16vs UNiTYMirage14-16vs UNiTYAnubis13-16vs ENCEAnubis14-16