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Predictions / megoshort vs Noir Verse · match preview
megoshort vs Noir Verse: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 6
megoshort
World #– · 24-30
VS
2026-09-07 13:45 UTC
CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 6 · Best of 3
Noir Verse
World #149 · 16-18
50%50%
The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 50–50. No odds yet. Form slightly favours megoshort, firepower slightly favours Noir Verse.
Likely mapsAncient · Cache · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
megoshortpullNoir Verse
Team strength1472
148753/47 NOI
Track record24–30
16–1852/48 NOI
Recent formWLWWW
LWLLW65/35 MEG
Roster rating1.05
1.166/34 NOI
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 94% our own signal (125 maps of megoshort, 73 of Noir Verse).
Bottom line: megoshort to beat Noir Verse, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
megoshort
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
EAC#612-11-2
megoshort vs EAC
May 21WMirage13-10Overpass6-13Ancient16-14Noir Verse vs EAC
Jun 13LAncient10-13Nuke13-6Mirage14-16
ASTRAL#761-21-0
megoshort vs ASTRAL
Apr 2LDust219-22Mirage13-10Ancient5-13Noir Verse vs ASTRAL
Jul 27WAnubis13-6
Honvéd#1350-24-2
megoshort vs Honvéd
Jul 14LMirage7-13Dust210-13
SAW Youngsters#1520-22-0
megoshort vs SAW Youngsters
Jul 15LMirage7-13Inferno5-13Noir Verse vs SAW Youngsters
Aug 30WMirage16-13Anubis13-10
MOUZ NXT#1561-21-4
megoshort vs MOUZ NXT
Mar 12LAncient8-13Anubis13-9Dust211-13
SPARTA0-20-2
megoshort vs SPARTA
Apr 28LMirage1-13Dust210-13Noir Verse vs SPARTA
Jul 12LCache6-13Dust27-13
los kogutos2-00-2
megoshort vs los kogutos
Jul 26WMirage13-9Dust213-10Noir Verse vs los kogutos
Aug 2LAnubis7-13Ancient7-13Firepower
roster ratingsmegoshort · avg 1.05 · top +0.16
Noir Verse · avg 1.1 · top +0.07
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| xeNji | 73 | 1.17 | 75.9 | 71.6% | 41% | 1.17 |
| wh1temink | 5 | 1.05 | 71.8 | 72.2% | 65% | 1.15 |
| Santuriano | 73 | 0.99 | 72.1 | 74.3% | 51% | 1.1 |
| Naginat | 73 | 0.93 | 79.4 | 70% | 65% | 1.08 |
| kirxttu | 73 | 0.98 | 69.1 | 73.6% | 50% | 1.02 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, megoshort vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMEGNOI
NukeMEG bann/a0g50%6-6
megoshort on Nuke
no recent maps
InfernoNOI ban44%8-100%0-2
AncientMEG pick52%15-1450%5-5
CacheNOI pick100%1-056%5-4
AnubisMEG ban40%2-345%5-6
MirageNOI ban47%15-1757%8-6
Dust2decider30%8-1943%6-8
Each team's usual first ban: megoshort Nuke · Noir Verse Inferno.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Noir Verse55%to win the seriesiMap edgesAncient: megoshort 52% toss-up · Cache: megoshort 52% toss-up · Dust2: Noir Verse 63%Whymegoshort are favoured on 2 of 3 maps, but only barely: the other maps are near 50/50 (Cache & Ancient), so Noir Verse just need to steal one (~73% to grab at least one).Outcomesmegoshort 45%: 2-0 27%, 2-1 18% · Noir Verse 55%: 2-1 32%, 2-0 23%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
megoshort 45%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Noir Verse only lead because their Dust2 is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.55% Noir Verse
Ancient
megoshort52%Noir Verse48%
15-14record5-5
52%win50%
53%CT win49%
50%T win44%
50%pistol40%
90%convert100%
Cache
megoshort52%Noir Verse48%
1-0record5-4
100%win56%
75%CT win56%
25%T win50%
50%pistol50%
0%convert100%
Dust2
megoshort37%Noir Verse63%
8-19record6-8
30%win43%
46%CT win56%
45%T win41%
57%pistol68%
81%convert89%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
MEGct
MEGt
NOIct
NOIt
MEGpistol
MEGconv
MEGeco
NOIpistol
NOIconv
NOIeco
Ancientpool
53%142/269
50%166/332
49%58/119
44%40/90
50%29/58
90%26/29
7%2/29
40%8/20
100%8/8
8%1/12
Cachepool
75%9/12
25%3/12
56%44/78
50%54/108
50%1/2
0%0/1
100%1/1
50%9/18
100%9/9
0%0/9
Dust2pool
46%135/296
45%117/261
56%80/142
41%60/145
57%31/54
81%25/31
0%0/22
68%19/28
89%17/19
0%0/9
Nukeban
n/a
n/a
54%72/134
51%57/112
n/a
n/a
n/a
75%18/24
94%17/18
17%1/6
Infernoban
43%83/195
48%86/179
29%7/24
31%4/13
42%15/36
80%12/15
14%3/21
50%2/4
50%1/2
0%0/2
Anubisban
43%25/58
49%24/49
47%51/109
52%61/117
70%7/10
71%5/7
0%0/3
64%14/22
57%8/14
13%1/8
Mirageban
57%177/313
39%135/346
56%81/145
52%67/129
41%26/64
81%21/26
18%7/38
54%15/28
100%15/15
8%1/13
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (megoshort 54%, Noir Verse 55%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → Noir Verse usually win the next round too (94% vs 84%). Lose the pistol → both fight back about the same (6% vs 3%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
megoshort
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i18/55 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 55 maps they won, 18 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs TNCMiragefrom 8 downvs ex-MANADust2from 8 downvs QWENTRYMiragefrom 6 downvs los kogutosDust2from 6 downvs PrivateerMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/68 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 18 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AMOverpassled 7 · lost 9-13vs MOUZ NXTAncientled 4 · lost 8-13vs Aurora Young BludMirageled 4 · lost 9-13vs WaveDust2led 4 · lost 8-13vs ex-GANKAnubisled 4 · lost 16-19
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs TNCMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AMOverpassled 7 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs PrestigeInferno16-13vs TrickedAncient13-16vs STATETrain19-17vs Eternal FireMirage13-16vs Aurora Young BludOverpass14-16
Noir Verse
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i10/35 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 35 maps they won, 10 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs SAW YoungstersMiragefrom 7 downvs AtreidesDust2from 7 downvs ex-Sashi AcademyAncientfrom 6 downvs ex-RUSTECCachefrom 6 downvs SAW YoungstersAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i8/38 (21%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 38 maps they lost, 8 (21%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs atputiesNukeled 6 · lost 13-16vs HonvédDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs EACMirageled 5 · lost 14-16vs MOUZ NXTCacheled 4 · lost 11-13vs Bushido WildcatsNukeled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs SAW YoungstersMiragefrom 7 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs atputiesNukeled 6 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs WBTNuke19-17vs EACMirage14-16vs atputiesNuke13-16vs ex-RUSTECCache16-13vs SAW YoungstersMirage16-13