Bushido Wildcats are favoured: our model gives them 62% against NAVI Junior. Bookmakers lean Bushido Wildcats at 67%. Strength slightly favours Bushido Wildcats, form slightly favours NAVI Junior, firepower clearly favours NAVI Junior.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Bushido WildcatspullNAVI Junior
Team strength1557
148765/35 BUS
Track record40–37
10–1156/44 BUS
Recent formLWLLL
WWLLW67/33 NAV
Roster rating1.11
1.175/25 NAV
Bookmakers imply 67% for Bushido Wildcats (1.37 / 2.78); we land 5 points lower at 62%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 91% our own signal (191 maps of Bushido Wildcats, 45 of NAVI Junior).
Bottom line: Bushido Wildcats to beat NAVI Junior, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Bushido Wildcats vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
Each team's usual first ban: Bushido Wildcats Ancient · NAVI Junior Cache.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
NAVI Junior51%to win the seriesiMap edgesDust2: Bushido Wildcats 57% · Mirage: NAVI Junior 76% clear · Anubis: Bushido Wildcats 67% clearWhyBushido Wildcats are favoured on 2 of 3 maps, but only barely: the other maps are near 50/50 (Anubis & Dust2), so NAVI Junior just need to steal one (~62% to grab at least one).OutcomesBushido Wildcats 49%: 2-1 36%, 2-0 14% · NAVI Junior 51%: 2-0 33%, 2-1 18% series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Bushido Wildcats 49%It’s nearly a coin-flip. NAVI Junior only lead because their Mirage is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.51% NAVI Junior
Dust2
Bushido Wildcats57%
NAVI Junior43%
32-17record3-2
65%win60%
53%CT win60%
58%T win63%
55%pistol20%
92%convert100%
Mirage
Bushido Wildcats24%
NAVI Junior76%
22-17record7-1
56%win88%
52%CT win66%
51%T win52%
49%pistol63%
84%convert80%
Anubis
Bushido Wildcats67%
NAVI Junior33%
11-11record2-5
50%win29%
50%CT win46%
55%T win47%
64%pistol57%
82%convert75%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per map
ct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
BUSct
BUSt
NAVct
NAVt
BUSpistol
BUSconv
BUSeco
NAVpistol
NAVconv
NAVeco
Dust2pool
53%243/458
58%315/543
60%32/53
63%24/38
55%54/98
92%49/53
20%9/44
20%2/10
100%2/2
50%4/8
Miragepool
52%187/358
51%218/428
66%50/76
52%44/85
49%38/78
84%32/38
3%1/40
63%10/16
80%8/10
33%2/6
Anubispool
50%121/244
55%127/233
46%32/69
47%37/78
64%28/44
82%23/28
31%5/16
57%8/14
75%6/8
33%2/6
Ancientban
42%5/12
14%1/7
42%39/93
51%44/86
0%0/2
n/a
0%0/2
39%7/18
71%5/7
18%2/11
Nukeban
51%208/405
49%162/333
40%21/53
46%25/54
56%39/70
74%29/39
19%6/31
50%5/10
60%3/5
0%0/5
Infernoban
50%115/231
48%95/200
35%19/55
52%34/66
43%19/44
84%16/19
12%3/25
33%4/12
75%3/4
25%2/8
Cacheban
49%48/97
50%43/86
n/a
n/a
50%9/18
78%7/9
22%2/9
n/a
n/a
n/a
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Bushido Wildcats wins more pistol rounds: 55% vs 50%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Bushido Wildcats usually win the next round too (87% vs 80%). Lose the pistol → NAVI Junior fight back to win the next round more often (40% vs 15%).