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Predictions / The MongolZ vs MIBR · match preview
The MongolZ vs MIBR: CS2 match prediction · FISSURE Playground 3
The MongolZ
World #14 · 26-22
VS
2026-09-08 06:00 UTC
FISSURE Playground 3 · Best of 3 · ★
MIBR
World #25 · 44-21
44%56%
58%
1.582.2Market · 7 books
42%The call
MIBR are favoured: our model gives them 56% against The MongolZ. Bookmakers lean The MongolZ at 58%. Record slightly favours MIBR, firepower clearly favours MIBR.
Likely mapsMirage · Inferno · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
The MongolZpullMIBR
Team strength1617
164857/43 MIB
Track record26–22
44–2162/38 MIB
Recent formLWLWL
LWWLL53/47 MIB
Roster rating1.03
1.1288/12 MIB
Bookmakers imply 58% for The MongolZ (1.58 / 2.2); we land 14 points lower at 44%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (112 maps of The MongolZ, 142 of MIBR).
Bottom line: MIBR to beat The MongolZ, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
The MongolZ
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Spirit#12-20-1
MIBR vs Spirit
Jun 6LMirage1-13
MOUZ#52-40-2
The MongolZ vs MOUZ
Mar 19WNuke13-11Inferno13-3Mar 8LAncient1-13Overpass11-13Feb 22LMirage6-13Inferno10-13MIBR vs MOUZ
May 24LOverpass3-13Ancient1-13
Legacy#71-25-8
The MongolZ vs Legacy
May 22LInferno11-13Mirage13-10Nuke10-13MIBR vs Legacy
Aug 16LNuke11-13Inferno8-13Jun 6WNuke13-8May 23LMirage12-16Inferno5-13+3 earlier meetings
9z#110-24-3
FaZe#121-21-0
The MongolZ vs FaZe
Jul 31LNuke12-16Mirage13-7Ancient8-13MIBR vs FaZe
Jul 2WAncient13-6
Astralis#130-20-3
The MongolZ vs Astralis
Apr 6LMirage4-13Ancient9-13
B8#155-33-4
PARIVISION#174-13-2
Firepower
roster ratingsThe MongolZ · avg 1.03 · top +0.14
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 910 | 112 | 1.19 | 75.8 | 71.8% | 37% | 1.17 |
| tikuak | 16 | 0.95 | 64.8 | 71.4% | 57% | 1.04 |
| bLitz | 112 | 0.89 | 74.8 | 69.5% | 49% | 1 |
| DarkMeister | 16 | 0.98 | 68.9 | 68% | 67% | 0.98 |
| Techno | 112 | 0.87 | 65 | 69.2% | 59% | 0.97 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, The MongolZ vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapTHEMIB
AnubisTHE bann/a0g92%11-1
The MongolZ on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2MIB ban58%11-80%0-1
MirageTHE pick52%16-1564%18-10
InfernoMIB pick56%10-868%23-11
AncientTHE ban44%8-1063%15-9
NukeMIB ban58%11-861%17-11
Cachedecider100%1-075%3-1
The MongolZ on Cache
W
HEROIC13–82mo agoEach team's usual first ban: The MongolZ Anubis · MIBR Dust2.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
MIBR62%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: MIBR 62% · Inferno: MIBR 62% · Cache: MIBR 50% toss-upWhyMIBR hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesThe MongolZ 38%: 2-1 24%, 2-0 14% · MIBR 62%: 2-0 38%, 2-1 24%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
The MongolZ 38%MIBR are the clearer side here: the most likely result is MIBR 2-0.62% MIBR
Mirage
The MongolZ38%MIBR62%
16-15record18-10
52%win64%
60%CT win69%
41%T win46%
55%pistol59%
85%convert81%
Inferno
The MongolZ38%MIBR62%
10-8record23-11
56%win68%
51%CT win55%
53%T win58%
56%pistol57%
80%convert72%
Cache
The MongolZ50%MIBR50%
1-0record3-1
100%win75%
89%CT win72%
42%T win31%
50%pistol25%
100%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
THEct
THEt
MIBct
MIBt
THEpistol
THEconv
THEeco
MIBpistol
MIBconv
MIBeco
Miragepool
60%176/293
41%150/365
69%189/275
46%123/265
55%34/62
85%29/34
29%8/28
59%33/56
81%26/32
26%6/23
Infernopool
51%84/166
53%103/196
55%181/331
58%209/363
56%20/36
80%16/20
31%5/16
57%39/68
72%28/39
10%3/29
Cachepool
89%8/9
42%5/12
72%33/46
31%12/39
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
25%2/8
100%2/2
17%1/6
Anubisban
n/a
n/a
57%76/134
65%77/118
n/a
n/a
n/a
63%15/24
93%14/15
22%2/9
Dust2ban
51%117/228
51%78/153
0%0/6
42%5/12
61%23/38
83%19/23
20%3/15
0%0/2
n/a
0%0/2
Ancientban
54%99/182
41%81/197
54%135/248
49%129/262
53%19/36
95%18/19
29%5/17
63%30/48
93%28/30
39%7/18
Nukeban
55%111/203
43%89/209
68%203/298
40%117/289
58%22/38
86%19/22
19%3/16
52%29/56
97%28/29
26%7/27
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (The MongolZ 55%, MIBR 56%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → The MongolZ usually win the next round too (84% vs 77%). Lose the pistol → The MongolZ fight back to win the next round more often (29% vs 17%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
The MongolZ
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i14/59 (24%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 59 maps they won, 14 (24%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 24% of their wins were comebacks, not 24% of all games.vs magicMiragefrom 7 downvs PARIVISIONMiragefrom 7 downvs PARIVISIONAncientfrom 6 downvs FURIAMiragefrom 5 downvs Natus VincereMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/53 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 53 maps they lost, 22 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FaZeNukeled 9 · lost 12-16vs FURIADust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs FalconsMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs AstralisAncientled 6 · lost 9-13vs LiquidMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs magicMiragefrom 7 down · won 25-23
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FaZeNukeled 9 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 15Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 15 went to overtime.vs FURIAInferno12-16vs B8Nuke19-17vs VitalityMirage13-16vs paiNNuke19-17vs VitalityOverpass13-16
MIBR
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/92 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 92 maps they won, 26 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs GalorysMiragefrom 9 downvs Gaimin GladiatorsAnubisfrom 8 downvs Bounty HuntersAnubisfrom 6 downvs BC.GameAnubisfrom 6 downvs RED CanidsAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/50 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 50 maps they lost, 16 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs RED CanidsInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs LegacyMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs Eternal FireAncientled 6 · lost 16-19vs Eternal FireMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs SharksNukeled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GalorysMiragefrom 9 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs RED CanidsInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs LegacyAncient22-20vs RED CanidsAncient19-16vs 9zNuke16-14vs 9zInferno16-13vs GalorysNuke16-13