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Predictions / Drama vs SINQU · match preview
Drama vs SINQU: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier
Drama
World #– · 4-8
VS
2026-09-10 08:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
SINQU
World #182 · 3-15
71%29%
68%
1.342.83Market · 2 books
32%The call · high confidence
Drama are favoured: our model gives them 71% against SINQU. Bookmakers lean Drama at 68%. Strength slightly favours Drama, record slightly favours Drama, form slightly favours Drama, firepower clearly favours Drama.
Likely mapsAncient · Nuke · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
DramapullSINQU
Team strength1475
140365/35 DRA
Track record4–8
3–1568/32 DRA
Recent formLWWLL
LLLWL69/31 DRA
Roster rating1
0.8693/7 DRA
Bookmakers imply 68% for Drama (1.34 / 2.83); we land 3 points higher at 71%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 86% our own signal (25 maps of Drama, 26 of SINQU).
Bottom line: Drama to beat SINQU, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Firepower
roster ratingsDrama · avg 1 · top +0.07
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Drama vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
SINQU habitually bans Mirage, Drama's strongest maps (Mirage all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Mirage 10/19), not an opponent read, so expect Drama to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapDRASIN
AnubisDRA bann/a0g0%0-1
Drama on Anubis
no recent maps
SINQU on Anubis
L
BASEMENT BOYS3–1323d agoInfernoSIN ban25%1-30%0-2
AncientDRA pick38%3-50%0-2
NukeSIN pick0%0-123%3-10
Dust2DRA ban25%1-333%1-2
MirageSIN ban67%4-2n/a0g
Drama on Mirage
L
HEROIC9–131d agoWNEXORA13–52d agoW
BEE13–75mo agoW
HYPERSPIRIT13–95mo agoL
DALUYONG5–135mo agoWHYPERSPIRIT13–56mo agoSINQU on Mirage
no recent maps
Cachedecidern/a0g33%1-2
Drama on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: Drama Anubis · SINQU Mirage.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Drama53%to win the seriesiMap edgesAncient: Drama 56% toss-up · Nuke: Drama 51% toss-up · Cache: Drama 50% toss-upWhyDrama hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesDrama 53%: 2-0 29%, 2-1 25% · SINQU 47%: 2-1 25%, 2-0 22%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Drama 53%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Drama only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.47% SINQU
Ancient
Drama56%SINQU44%
3-5record0-2
38%win0%
44%CT win32%
42%T win46%
31%pistol25%
80%convert100%
Nuke
Drama51%SINQU49%
0-1record3-10
0%win23%
67%CT win45%
10%T win37%
50%pistol42%
0%convert73%
Cache
Drama50%SINQU50%
thin sample, read with caution
0-0record1-2
–win33%
–CT win62%
–T win38%
–pistol50%
–convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
DRAct
DRAt
SINct
SINt
DRApistol
DRAconv
DRAeco
SINpistol
SINconv
SINeco
Ancientpool
44%35/79
42%35/83
32%6/19
46%11/24
31%5/16
80%4/5
0%0/11
25%1/4
100%1/1
0%0/3
Nukepool
67%8/12
10%1/10
45%49/109
37%55/150
50%1/2
0%0/1
100%1/1
42%11/26
73%8/11
7%1/15
Cachepool
n/a
n/a
62%21/34
38%11/29
n/a
n/a
n/a
50%3/6
100%3/3
0%0/3
Anubisban
n/a
n/a
0%0/4
25%3/12
n/a
n/a
n/a
0%0/2
n/a
0%0/2
Infernoban
42%14/33
54%26/48
31%5/16
21%4/19
50%4/8
100%4/4
50%2/4
50%2/4
50%1/2
0%0/2
Dust2ban
47%14/30
33%14/42
22%6/27
59%10/17
25%2/8
100%2/2
17%1/6
33%2/6
50%1/2
0%0/3
Mirageban
56%35/62
55%31/56
n/a
n/a
75%9/12
89%8/9
0%0/3
n/a
n/a
n/a
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
SINQU wins more pistol rounds: 42% vs 33%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → SINQU usually win the next round too (80% vs 67%). Lose the pistol → both fight back about the same (8% vs 5%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Drama
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/9 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 9 maps they won, 2 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs HYPERSPIRITMiragefrom 3 downvs fnaticAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/16 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 16 maps they lost, 7 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs yngodsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs Eternal FireInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs FaZeNukeled 6 · lost 9-13vs HYPERSPIRITAncientled 4 · lost 10-13vs magicInfernoled 4 · lost 5-13
Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs HYPERSPIRITMiragefrom 3 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs yngodsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini6.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi24% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT24% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs fnaticAncient16-14
SINQU
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/5 (20%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 5 maps they won, 1 (20%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 20% of their wins were comebacks, not 20% of all games.vs SidequestNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/21 (19%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 21 maps they lost, 4 (19%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Friendly CampersNukeled 4 · lost 11-13vs LavkedAncientled 4 · lost 6-13vs STATENukeled 3 · lost 14-16vs BC.GameCacheled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs SidequestNukefrom 3 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Friendly CampersNukeled 4 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs STATENuke14-16vs KUUSAMONuke16-13