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Predictions / Color vs SPARTA · match preview
Color vs SPARTA: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
COL
Color
World #57 · 16-8
VS
2026-09-18 17:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
SPARTA
World #– · 49-51
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
55%45%
64%
1.452.6Market · 5 books
36%The call
Color are favoured: our model gives them 55% against SPARTA. Bookmakers lean Color at 64%. Record slightly favours Color, firepower slightly favours SPARTA.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ColorpullSPARTA
Team strength1617
160752/48 COL
Track record16–8
49–5159/41 COL
Recent formWWWLL
WLWWW52/48 COL
Roster rating1.14
1.161/39 SPA
Head-to-head4 maps4 maps50/50
Bookmakers imply 64% for Color (1.45 / 2.6); we land 9 points lower at 55%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (57 maps of Color, 250 of SPARTA). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: Color leads 2–1.
Bottom line: Color to beat SPARTA, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsColor · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
SPARTA · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El1an★ | 1.24 | 77.2 | 72.2% | 29% | 1.15 |
| TRAVIS | 1.09 | 74.4 | 73.4% | 58% | 1.15 |
| glowiing | 1.07 | 82.3 | 74.8% | 56% | 1.14 |
| interz | 1.1 | 71.7 | 80.6% | 53% | 1.1 |
| NickelBack | 0.82 | 67.5 | 70% | 50% | 0.96 |
Recent form
Color
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents5d agoCOL Color2 : 1
SPARTA!25d agoCOL Color0 : 2 SPARTA!28d agoCOL Color2 : 1 SPARTA!
SPARTA!⚠ Different lineup
Color
outRyujin, cronuss, lattykk, oz1k, yiksrezo
SPARTA
outsugaR
ininterz
SPARTA!⚠ Different lineup
Color
outRyujin, cronuss, lattykk, oz1k, reyoz
SPARTA
outsugaR
ininterz
SPARTA!⚠ Different lineup
Color
outQikert, cronuss, lattykk, oz1k, reyoz
SPARTA
outsugaR
ininterz
HOTU#281-20-2
Color vs HOTU
Sep 1LDust213-10Cache7-13Anubis22-25SPARTA vs HOTU
Aug 31LDust25-13Cache8-13
Nemiga#390-20-4
Color vs Nemiga
Sep 8LDust213-16Anubis6-13
Nemesis#440-20-4
Color vs Nemesis
Aug 22LDust211-13Inferno4-13
Nuclear TigeRES#471-23-3
Color vs Nuclear TigeRES
Sep 1LDust213-9Inferno2-13Ancient8-13
INOX Division#592-03-6
Color vs INOX Division
Sep 13WInferno13-4Dust216-14
Metizport#681-21-2
Color vs Metizport
Aug 20LMirage11-13Inferno13-8Cache11-13SPARTA vs Metizport
Aug 18LMirage10-13Nuke13-6Inferno6-13
BAKS#831-02-1
Color vs BAKS
Aug 24WInferno13-4SPARTA vs BAKS
Sep 16WAncient16-19Dust213-5Inferno13-3
Inner Circle Academy#1282-01-2
Color vs Inner Circle Academy
Aug 21WDust213-4Anubis13-9SPARTA vs Inner Circle Academy
Aug 28LAncient7-13Dust213-9Nuke6-13Map lab
Color53%to win the Bo3 · most likely Color 2-0
If the veto goes
Color 53%how the series ends47% SPARTA
37%2-012%
15%2-135%
Color49%11-6vsSPARTA51%47-26
65%Win64%
54%CT56%
55%T55%
56%Pistol52%
95%Conv82%
Color76%8-2vsSPARTA24%21-22
80%Win49%
53%CT57%
57%T41%
55%Pistol41%
91%Conv80%
Color30%2-5vsSPARTA70%7-6
29%Win54%
49%CT51%
40%T48%
29%Pistol65%
75%Conv88%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ColorDust2SPARTA
54%CT side56%
55%T side55%
56%Pistol52%
95%After win82%
13%After loss30%
ColorMirageSPARTA
53%CT side57%
57%T side41%
55%Pistol41%
91%After win80%
33%After loss22%
ColorCacheSPARTA
49%CT side51%
40%T side48%
29%Pistol65%
75%After win88%
0%After loss0%
Pistol rounds50% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol91% · 82% · Color keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol15% · 25% · SPARTA fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Color vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapCOLSPA
NukeCOL bann/a0g47%17-19
AnubisSPA ban57%4-340%2-3
Dust2COL pick65%11-664%47-26
MirageSPA pick80%8-249%21-22
InfernoCOL ban57%4-355%12-10
AncientSPA ban67%6-335%14-26
Cachedecider29%2-554%7-6
Each team's usual first ban: Color Nuke · SPARTA Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Color
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/35 (17%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 35 maps they won, 6 (17%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 17% of their wins were comebacks, not 17% of all games.vs FORZE ReloadDust2from 6 downvs The Last ResortAncientfrom 4 downvs FORZE ReloadMiragefrom 4 downvs SPARTAMiragefrom 4 downvs EACAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/22 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 22 maps they lost, 7 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTADust2led 7 · lost 11-13vs SPARTADust2led 5 · lost 19-22vs SPARTAMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs B8Ancientled 5 · lost 10-13vs MetizportCacheled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FORZE ReloadDust2from 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTADust2led 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi40% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT40% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs SPARTADust219-22vs The Last ResortAncient16-13vs HOTUAnubis22-25vs EACAnubis14-16vs INOX DivisionDust216-14
SPARTA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i47/131 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 131 maps they won, 47 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs BAKSInfernofrom 10 downvs GenOneDust2from 7 downvs Bushido WildcatsAncientfrom 7 downvs ColorDust2from 7 downvs LavkedInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i35/119 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 119 maps they lost, 35 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bushido WildcatsAnubisled 9 · lost 9-13vs INOX DivisionOverpassled 8 · lost 10-13vs ex-Young NinjasDust2led 7 · lost 6-13vs TDKDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs LavkedAncientled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BAKSInfernofrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bushido WildcatsAnubisled 9 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs MOUZ NXTNuke19-17vs TDKDust217-19vs TDKOverpass16-14vs TDKDust213-16vs BIGAncient17-19