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Predictions / Ninjas in Pyjamas vs SINNERS · match preview
Ninjas in Pyjamas vs SINNERS: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier
Ninjas in Pyjamas
World #26 · 31-29
VS
2026-09-09 14:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
SINNERS
World #50 · 40-32
60%40%
58%
1.622.2Market · 14 books
42%The call
Ninjas in Pyjamas are favoured: our model gives them 60% against SINNERS. Bookmakers lean Ninjas in Pyjamas at 58%. Strength slightly favours Ninjas in Pyjamas, form slightly favours SINNERS, firepower slightly favours SINNERS.
Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Ninjas in PyjamaspullSINNERS
Team strength1629
158160/40 NIN
Track record31–29
40–3251/49 SIN
Recent formLWWLW
WWWLL58/42 SIN
Roster rating1.08
1.1161/39 SIN
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 58% for Ninjas in Pyjamas (1.62 / 2.2) and we land at 60%, the same read. This read is 97% our own signal (142 maps of Ninjas in Pyjamas, 152 of SINNERS).
Bottom line: Ninjas in Pyjamas to beat SINNERS, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Ninjas in Pyjamas
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
G2#90-22-1
Ninjas in Pyjamas vs G2
Mar 5LAnubis10-13Dust213-16SINNERS vs G2
Mar 25WOverpass13-9Dust25-13Mirage19-17
FaZe#122-00-2
Ninjas in Pyjamas vs FaZe
May 30WAncient13-11Nuke13-10SINNERS vs FaZe
Jul 3LMirage7-13Ancient2-13
Astralis#131-20-2
Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Astralis
Aug 16LNuke3-13Inferno13-10Cache7-13SINNERS vs Astralis
May 13LMirage11-13Inferno8-13
GamerLegion#183-32-4
Ninjas in Pyjamas vs GamerLegion
Apr 2LNuke13-6Mirage11-13Ancient11-13Feb 8WNuke13-10Mirage12-16Ancient13-10SINNERS vs GamerLegion
May 12LMirage13-10Inferno9-13Nuke8-13Feb 24LNuke7-13Inferno14-16Feb 22WMirage19-16
magic#202-51-2
Ninjas in Pyjamas vs magic
Jul 26LAncient9-13Anubis11-13May 30WAnubis13-11Ancient6-13Mirage13-11May 29LAncient9-13Mirage2-13SINNERS vs magic
Feb 3LAncient10-13Mirage13-7Dust28-13
BIG#233-32-2
Ninjas in Pyjamas vs BIG
Jul 4LAnubis11-13Inferno13-9Ancient6-13Apr 25WAncient13-5Mirage11-13Anubis13-5
Alliance#362-12-2
K27#373-22-2
Firepower
roster ratingsNinjas in Pyjamas · avg 1.08 · top +0.11
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| xKacpersky | 140 | 1.08 | 83.2 | 73.1% | 53% | 1.19 |
| stavn | 77 | 1.22 | 75.5 | 72.6% | 32% | 1.15 |
| n0te | 49 | 0.98 | 72.2 | 71.3% | 58% | 1.07 |
| sjuush | 140 | 0.98 | 70 | 71.1% | 56% | 1.07 |
| Krimbo | 8 | 0.91 | 67.6 | 71.6% | 53% | 0.94 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Ninjas in Pyjamas vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNINSIN
InfernoNIN ban57%4-344%8-10
AnubisSIN ban50%8-8n/a0g
Ninjas in Pyjamas on Anubis
W
BetBoom13–1124d agoLmagic11–131mo agoW
100 Thieves13–102mo agoLBIG11–132mo agoL
3DMAX14–162mo agoWmagic13–113mo agoL
Monte2–134mo agoWBIG13–55mo agoSINNERS on Anubis
no recent maps
NukeNIN pick74%28-1043%9-12
MirageSIN pick43%10-1359%19-13
Dust2NIN ban44%7-955%17-14
AncientSIN ban50%15-1552%14-13
Cachedecider0%0-544%4-5
Each team's usual first ban: Ninjas in Pyjamas Inferno · SINNERS Anubis.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
SINNERS60%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: Ninjas in Pyjamas 77% clear · Mirage: SINNERS 65% · Cache: SINNERS 78% clearWhySINNERS hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesNinjas in Pyjamas 40%: 2-0 27%, 2-1 13% · SINNERS 60%: 2-1 45%, 2-0 15%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Ninjas in Pyjamas 40%SINNERS are the clearer side here: the most likely result is SINNERS 2-1.60% SINNERS
Nuke
Ninjas in Pyjamas77%SINNERS23%
28-10record9-12
74%win43%
63%CT win58%
52%T win42%
47%pistol52%
81%convert82%
Mirage
Ninjas in Pyjamas35%SINNERS65%
10-13record19-13
43%win59%
59%CT win54%
42%T win54%
59%pistol53%
81%convert76%
Cache
Ninjas in Pyjamas22%SINNERS78%
0-5record4-5
0%win44%
35%CT win50%
37%T win49%
20%pistol50%
50%convert56%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
NINct
NINt
SINct
SINt
NINpistol
NINconv
NINeco
SINpistol
SINconv
SINeco
Nukepool
63%206/326
52%233/447
58%132/228
42%83/199
47%36/76
81%29/36
50%20/40
52%22/42
82%18/22
15%3/20
Miragepool
59%147/249
42%102/242
54%177/329
54%190/355
59%27/46
81%22/27
11%2/19
53%34/64
76%26/34
20%6/30
Cachepool
35%17/48
37%20/54
50%52/104
49%41/84
20%2/10
50%1/2
13%1/8
50%9/18
56%5/9
22%2/9
Infernoban
49%41/84
53%40/75
56%111/199
44%82/186
50%7/14
43%3/7
29%2/7
53%19/36
72%13/18
12%2/17
Anubisban
45%79/176
53%94/179
n/a
n/a
44%14/32
86%12/14
28%5/18
n/a
n/a
n/a
Dust2ban
47%85/182
43%68/157
52%150/290
51%175/341
53%17/32
82%14/17
7%1/15
48%30/62
77%23/30
19%6/31
Ancientban
52%166/320
50%158/318
50%155/313
51%128/252
52%31/60
84%26/31
14%4/29
56%30/54
70%21/30
13%3/24
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
SINNERS wins more pistol rounds: 52% vs 49%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Ninjas in Pyjamas usually win the next round too (80% vs 75%). Lose the pistol → Ninjas in Pyjamas fight back to win the next round more often (34% vs 19%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Ninjas in Pyjamas
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i23/74 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 74 maps they won, 23 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs EchoNukefrom 7 downvs M1X KSDust2from 6 downvs MonteNukefrom 6 downvs fnaticMiragefrom 6 downvs Gentle MatesNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/67 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 67 maps they lost, 25 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs HEROICMirageled 8 · lost 12-16vs MonteAnubisled 6 · lost 14-16vs LegacyAncientled 5 · lost 13-16vs BIGMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs paiNMirageled 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs EchoNukefrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs HEROICMirageled 8 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs LiquidAncient13-16vs BC.GameDust214-16vs M1X KSOverpass13-16vs GamerLegionMirage12-16vs 100 ThievesAncient12-16
SINNERS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i27/82 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 82 maps they won, 27 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs 1winDust2from 6 downvs ECSTATICMiragefrom 6 downvs Rune EatersDust2from 6 downvs Johnny SpeedsMiragefrom 5 downvs KOLESIEOverpassfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/70 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 70 maps they lost, 21 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Gentle MatesInfernoled 8 · lost 17-19vs TrickedMirageled 6 · lost 13-16vs FOKUSAncientled 6 · lost 13-16vs SpiritMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs BetBoomNukeled 5 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs 1winDust2from 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Gentle MatesInfernoled 8 · lost 17-19
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs GenOneNuke14-16vs AcendAncient16-14vs GamerLegionMirage19-16vs GamerLegionInferno14-16vs ECSTATICAncient22-20