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Predictions / ex-RUSTEC vs Entropy · match preview
ex-RUSTEC vs Entropy: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier
ex-RUSTEC
World #– · 25-17
VS
2026-09-08 14:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Entropy
World #132 · 31-27
62%38%
The call
ex-RUSTEC are favoured: our model gives them 62% against Entropy. No odds yet. Form slightly favours Entropy, firepower slightly favours Entropy, head-to-head clearly favours ex-RUSTEC.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ex-RUSTECpullEntropy
Team strength1549154750/50
Track record25–17
31–2752/48 EX-
Recent formWLWLL
WWWWW63/37 ENT
Roster rating1.11
1.0864/36 ENT
Head-to-head6 maps
1 maps78/22 EX-
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 97% our own signal (199 maps of ex-RUSTEC, 140 of Entropy). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: ex-RUSTEC leads 2–0.
Bottom line: ex-RUSTEC to beat Entropy, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
ex-RUSTEC
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents10d ago ex-RUSTEC2 : 1
Entropy!1mo ago ex-RUSTEC2 : 0 Entropy!
ex-RUSTEC2 : 1 Entropy!⚠ Different lineup
ex-RUSTEC
outPatsi
inyiksrezo
Entropy
outGeGo
inToshas
ex-RUSTEC2 : 0 Entropy!⚠ Different lineup
ex-RUSTEC
outPatsi
inshalfey
Entropy
outdelle, tevsii
inSapec, Toshas
GenOne#551-60-2
ex-RUSTEC vs GenOne
Aug 23LInferno5-13Dust213-7Anubis8-13Jul 30LDust27-13Anubis3-13Jul 13LDust214-16Inferno8-13Entropy vs GenOne
Jul 12LCache6-13Dust22-13
Black Phoenix#802-00-2
ex-RUSTEC vs Black Phoenix
Aug 21WAnubis13-8Inferno16-14Entropy vs Black Phoenix
Jul 29LMirage9-13Nuke10-13
Rune Eaters#932-10-2
ex-RUSTEC vs Rune Eaters
Jul 25WNuke6-13Mirage13-10Dust213-9Entropy vs Rune Eaters
Jul 23Lseries0-2
UNiTY#942-12-0
ex-RUSTEC vs UNiTY
Jul 28WDust213-6Inferno8-13Mirage13-8Entropy vs UNiTY
Jul 29WInferno13-7Cache13-8JUSJust Players#966-12-0
ex-RUSTEC vs Just Players
Aug 28WMirage11-13Dust213-6Anubis13-8Jul 25WDust213-5Mirage16-14Jul 21WMirage13-10Dust213-10Entropy vs Just Players
Jul 13WCache13-4Mirage16-14
G2 Ares#974-00-2
Entropy vs G2 Ares
May 26LAnubis5-13Inferno8-13
Inner Circle Academy#1030-42-2
Honvéd#1382-17-4
ex-RUSTEC vs Honvéd
Aug 2WDust210-13Anubis13-2Mirage13-9Entropy vs Honvéd
Aug 18LMirage5-13Ancient13-8Inferno4-13Jul 19Wseries2-0Jul 19WDust29-13Mirage13-3Ancient13-5+1 earlier meeting
Firepower
roster ratingsex-RUSTEC · avg 1.11 · top +0.11
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yiksrezo | 41 | 1.2 | 81.8 | 73.6% | 68% | 1.22 |
| youka | 97 | 1.23 | 73 | 72.4% | 36% | 1.18 |
| shalfey | 48 | 1.11 | 75.4 | 74.6% | 61% | 1.16 |
| jakekeS | 98 | 0.91 | 69.2 | 72.4% | 56% | 1.01 |
| Brilliance | 98 | 0.84 | 69.9 | 69.3% | 55% | 0.99 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ex-RUSTEC vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapEX-ENT
AncientEX- bann/a0g57%13-10
ex-RUSTEC on Ancient
no recent maps
NukeENT ban42%8-1150%2-2
Dust2EX- pick57%16-1229%5-12
MirageENT pick60%6-456%20-16
InfernoEX- ban45%5-650%6-6
AnubisENT ban63%12-753%9-8
Each team's usual first ban: ex-RUSTEC Ancient · Entropy Nuke.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
ex-RUSTEC58%to win the seriesiMap edgesDust2: ex-RUSTEC 74% clear · Mirage: ex-RUSTEC 53% toss-up · Cache: Entropy 62%Whyex-RUSTEC hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).Outcomesex-RUSTEC 58%: 2-0 39%, 2-1 19% · Entropy 42%: 2-1 30%, 2-0 12%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
ex-RUSTEC 58%It’s nearly a coin-flip. ex-RUSTEC only lead because their Dust2 is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.42% Entropy
Dust2
ex-RUSTEC74%Entropy26%
16-12record5-12
57%win29%
55%CT win43%
50%T win46%
46%pistol50%
81%convert76%
Mirage
ex-RUSTEC53%Entropy47%
6-4record20-16
60%win56%
55%CT win58%
48%T win44%
40%pistol47%
75%convert91%
Cache
ex-RUSTEC38%Entropy62%
5-6record10-7
45%win59%
54%CT win54%
52%T win50%
55%pistol32%
92%convert91%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
EX-ct
EX-t
ENTct
ENTt
EX-pistol
EX-conv
EX-eco
ENTpistol
ENTconv
ENTeco
Dust2pool
55%150/273
50%154/311
43%81/190
46%73/159
46%26/56
81%21/26
20%6/30
50%17/34
76%13/17
6%1/17
Miragepool
55%64/117
48%49/102
58%202/346
44%174/397
40%8/20
75%6/8
25%3/12
47%34/72
91%31/34
18%7/38
Cachepool
54%69/127
52%53/102
54%86/159
50%98/197
55%12/22
92%11/12
30%3/10
32%11/34
91%10/11
13%3/23
Ancientban
n/a
n/a
56%139/249
48%119/246
n/a
n/a
n/a
37%17/46
76%13/17
28%8/29
Nukeban
52%104/200
44%94/212
50%24/48
45%18/40
47%18/38
83%15/18
5%1/20
50%4/8
75%3/4
0%0/4
Infernoban
50%62/123
39%38/98
43%59/137
54%69/127
41%9/22
44%4/9
31%4/13
46%11/24
82%9/11
31%4/13
Anubisban
49%96/194
57%107/189
60%102/170
44%75/172
55%21/38
95%20/21
24%4/17
41%14/34
86%12/14
35%7/20
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
ex-RUSTEC wins more pistol rounds: 47% vs 44%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Entropy usually win the next round too (87% vs 83%). Lose the pistol → ex-RUSTEC fight back to win the next round more often (23% vs 14%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ex-RUSTEC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i15/52 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 52 maps they won, 15 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs FortressNukefrom 8 downvs ex-MANANukefrom 5 downvs SAW YoungstersAnubisfrom 5 downvs EntropyDust2from 5 downvs WalczakiCachefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i13/46 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 46 maps they lost, 13 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs SPARTACacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs Noir VerseCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs LavkedMirageled 4 · lost 9-13vs ButterflyCacheled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FortressNukefrom 8 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs Just PlayersMirage16-14vs ex-RUBYNuke12-16vs ButterflyNuke16-14vs INOX DivisionNuke13-16
Entropy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/67 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 67 maps they won, 22 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs HonvédMiragefrom 10 downvs MisaCachefrom 9 downvs MisaCachefrom 8 downvs WAZABIAncientfrom 6 downvs Endless JourneyInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/65 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 65 maps they lost, 19 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ENCEAncientled 7 · lost 14-16vs HOTUDust2led 7 · lost 13-16vs Sashi AcademyAncientled 6 · lost 8-13vs OramondMirageled 6 · lost 9-13vs Project 91Mirageled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs HonvédMiragefrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ENCEAncientled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs Sashi AcademyInferno16-14vs WAZABIAncient16-14vs ENCEInferno13-16vs ENCEMirage16-12vs ENCEAncient14-16