Too close to call. Our model has it 51–49. No odds yet. Form clearly favours Entropy, firepower clearly favours Entropy.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Bushido WildcatspullEntropy
Team strength1538
154752/48 ENT
Track record40–38
31–2752/48 BUS
Recent formLLWLL
WWWWW77/23 ENT
Roster rating1.1
1.0873/27 ENT
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 97% our own signal (193 maps of Bushido Wildcats, 140 of Entropy).
Bottom line: Bushido Wildcats to beat Entropy, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Bushido Wildcats vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
Each team's usual first ban: Bushido Wildcats Ancient · Entropy Nuke.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Bushido Wildcats64%to win the seriesiMap edgesDust2: Bushido Wildcats 80% clear · Mirage: Bushido Wildcats 51% toss-up · Cache: Entropy 53% toss-upWhyBushido Wildcats hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesBushido Wildcats 64%: 2-0 41%, 2-1 23% · Entropy 36%: 2-1 26%, 2-0 10% series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Bushido Wildcats 64%Bushido Wildcats are the clearer side here: the most likely result is Bushido Wildcats 2-0.36% Entropy
Dust2
Bushido Wildcats80%
Entropy20%
32-17record5-12
65%win29%
53%CT win43%
58%T win46%
55%pistol50%
92%convert76%
Mirage
Bushido Wildcats51%
Entropy49%
22-17record20-16
56%win56%
52%CT win58%
51%T win44%
49%pistol47%
84%convert91%
Cache
Bushido Wildcats47%
Entropy53%
5-4record10-7
56%win59%
49%CT win54%
50%T win50%
50%pistol32%
78%convert91%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per map
ct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
BUSct
BUSt
ENTct
ENTt
BUSpistol
BUSconv
BUSeco
ENTpistol
ENTconv
ENTeco
Dust2pool
53%243/458
58%315/543
43%81/190
46%73/159
55%54/98
92%49/53
20%9/44
50%17/34
76%13/17
6%1/17
Miragepool
52%187/358
51%218/428
58%202/346
44%174/397
49%38/78
84%32/38
3%1/40
47%34/72
91%31/34
18%7/38
Cachepool
49%48/97
50%43/86
54%86/159
50%98/197
50%9/18
78%7/9
22%2/9
32%11/34
91%10/11
13%3/23
Ancientban
42%5/12
14%1/7
56%139/249
48%119/246
0%0/2
n/a
0%0/2
37%17/46
76%13/17
28%8/29
Nukeban
52%215/417
48%165/344
50%24/48
45%18/40
56%40/72
73%29/40
19%6/32
50%4/8
75%3/4
0%0/4
Infernoban
50%115/231
48%95/200
43%59/137
54%69/127
43%19/44
84%16/19
12%3/25
46%11/24
82%9/11
31%4/13
Anubisban
49%121/249
53%131/245
60%102/170
44%75/172
63%29/46
83%24/29
29%5/17
41%14/34
86%12/14
35%7/20
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Bushido Wildcats wins more pistol rounds: 52% vs 44%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (88% vs 87%). Lose the pistol → both fight back about the same (13% vs 14%).