Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / BAKS vs Black Phoenix · match preview
BAKS vs Black Phoenix: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 9
BAKS
World #83 · 14-10
VS
2026-09-20 17:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
Black Phoenix
World #89 · 25-23
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
57%43%
54%
1.712.02Market · 7 books
46%The call
BAKS are favoured: our model gives them 57% against Black Phoenix. Bookmakers lean BAKS at 54%. Record slightly favours BAKS, firepower slightly favours Black Phoenix.
Likely mapsCache · Dust2 · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BAKSpullBlack Phoenix
Team strength1580
154957/43 BAK
Track record14–10
25–2360/40 BAK
Recent formWWLWL
WWWLL52/48 BLA
Roster rating1.1
1.0467/33 BLA
Bookmakers imply 54% for BAKS (1.71 / 2.02); we land 3 points higher at 57%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (61 maps of BAKS, 119 of Black Phoenix).
Bottom line: BAKS to beat Black Phoenix, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBAKS · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| turbo★ | 1.07 | 75.9 | 73.1% | 62% | 1.17 |
| whisper | 1.1 | 75.7 | 72% | 64% | 1.15 |
| Norwi | 0.97 | 73.5 | 69.8% | 48% | 1.08 |
| danistzz | 1.12 | 70.4 | 74.6% | 38% | 1.05 |
| xdENiSZERA | 1.02 | 70.4 | 73.5% | 54% | 1.03 |
Black Phoenix · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
BAKS
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
ex-RUSTEC#672-12-3
BAKS vs ex-RUSTEC
Sep 18WDust27-13Cache13-10Nuke13-8
FORZE Reload#752-00-2
BAKS vs FORZE Reload
Sep 13WCache13-8Nuke19-17Black Phoenix vs FORZE Reload
Aug 27LMirage10-13Dust210-13
CYBERSHOKE#870-21-2
BAKS vs CYBERSHOKE
Sep 15LCache11-13Dust211-13Black Phoenix vs CYBERSHOKE
Aug 8LCache13-10Nuke11-13Dust28-13EX-ex-RUBY#1042-14-2
BAKS vs ex-RUBY
Sep 13WCache13-6Mirage5-13Ancient13-5
Misa#1103-31-2
Black Phoenix vs Misa
Jul 27LDust213-7Anubis8-13Inferno6-13
SPARTA1-21-2
BAKS vs SPARTA
Sep 16LAncient19-16Dust25-13Inferno3-13Black Phoenix vs SPARTA
Aug 30LDust28-13Inferno13-4Nuke6-13Map lab
Black Phoenix56%to win the Bo3 · most likely Black Phoenix 2-1
If the veto goes
BAKS 44%how the series ends56% Black Phoenix
24%2-025%
20%2-131%
BAKS57%11-3vsBlack Phoenix43%8-3
79%Win73%
61%CT50%
53%T52%
54%Pistol64%
87%Conv64%
BAKS43%6-7vsBlack Phoenix57%19-16
46%Win54%
43%CT55%
56%T50%
50%Pistol49%
85%Conv91%
BAKS38%4-5vsBlack Phoenix62%7-5
44%Win58%
45%CT57%
48%T47%
39%Pistol54%
71%Conv85%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BAKSCacheBlack Phoenix
61%CT side50%
53%T side52%
54%Pistol64%
87%After win64%
15%After loss0%
BAKSDust2Black Phoenix
43%CT side55%
56%T side50%
50%Pistol49%
85%After win91%
8%After loss14%
BAKSInfernoBlack Phoenix
45%CT side57%
48%T side47%
39%Pistol54%
71%After win85%
9%After loss0%
Pistol rounds49% · 53% · Black Phoenix win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 84% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol11% · 9% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BAKS vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Black Phoenix habitually bans Ancient, BAKS's strongest maps (Ancient, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Ancient 44/48), not an opponent read, so expect BAKS to fight the veto for Cache.
MapBAKBLA
AnubisBAK bann/a0g20%3-12
BAKS on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientBLA ban86%6-10%0-1
BAKS on Ancient
W
G2 Ares22–202d agoWSPARTA19–163d agoWex-RUBY13–56d agoL
WBT7–1319d agoW
BET-M13–82mo agoW
TDK13–82mo agoW
ReThink13–63mo agoBlack Phoenix on Ancient
LPsychoFace11–1311d agoCacheBAK pick79%11-373%8-3
Dust2BLA pick46%6-754%19-16
MirageBAK ban50%3-337%7-12
NukeBLA ban55%6-556%10-8
Infernodecider44%4-558%7-5
Each team's usual first ban: BAKS Anubis · Black Phoenix Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BAKS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i12/36 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 36 maps they won, 12 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs K28Dust2from 9 downvs SPARTAAncientfrom 6 downvs eternal premiumMiragefrom 5 downvs G2 AresCachefrom 5 downvs XcityInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/25 (24%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 25 maps they lost, 6 (24%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsDust2led 4 · lost 7-13vs ex-RUSTECDust2led 4 · lost 7-13vs CYBERSHOKECacheled 4 · lost 11-13vs TDKDust2led 3 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs K28Dust2from 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs XcityInferno16-13vs ReThinkMirage26-28vs MisaNuke12-16vs SPARTAAncient19-16vs G2 AresAncient22-20
Black Phoenix
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/54 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 54 maps they won, 19 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 downvs CYBERSHOKECachefrom 7 downvs EnjoyMiragefrom 5 downvs ButterflyDust2from 4 downvs LavkedMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/57 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 57 maps they lost, 19 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13vs LavkedMirageled 8 · lost 13-16vs Just PlayersMirageled 8 · lost 10-13vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 8-13vs ButterflyNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 down · won 25-23
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs LavkedMirage16-13vs WalczakiCache25-23vs ex-RUSTECInferno14-16vs BBLInferno16-13vs LavkedMirage13-16