Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / Nexus vs Bushido Wildcats · match preview
Nexus vs Bushido Wildcats: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 9
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
47%53%
44%
2.141.65Market · 7 books
56%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 47–53. Bookmakers lean Bushido Wildcats at 56%. Strength slightly favours Bushido Wildcats, firepower slightly favours Nexus, head-to-head slightly favours Bushido Wildcats.
Likely mapsAnubis · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NexuspullBushido Wildcats
Team strength1501
153758/42 BUS
Track record17–21
48–4456/44 BUS
Recent formWWLLLWWLLL50/50
Roster rating1.12
1.0961/39 NEX
Head-to-head3 maps
5 maps60/40 BUS
Bookmakers imply 44% for Nexus (2.14 / 1.65); we land 3 points higher at 47%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 95% our own signal (81 maps of Nexus, 226 of Bushido Wildcats). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: Bushido Wildcats leads 2–1.
Bottom line: Bushido Wildcats to beat Nexus, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNexus · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Bushido Wildcats · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Nexus
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents1mo ago
Nexus0 : 2
Bushido Wildcats!8mo ago Nexus2 : 1 Bushido Wildcats!8mo ago Nexus1 : 2 Bushido Wildcats!
Nexus0 : 2 Bushido Wildcats!⚠ Different lineup
Nexus
outNexius, SBT
inH4rder, HOLY
Bushido Wildcats
outDarendeli, Muk0s, Vej, cacan, cadnyx
Nexus2 : 1 Bushido Wildcats!⚠ Different lineup
Nexus
outBlytz, XELLOW, fnl
inH4rder, HOLY, shield
Bushido Wildcats
outDarendeli, Vej, cadnyx, eNs, scolleN
Nexus1 : 2 Bushido Wildcats!⚠ Different lineup
Nexus
outBlytz, XELLOW, fnl
inH4rder, HOLY, shield
Bushido Wildcats
outDarendeli, Vej, cadnyx, eNs, scolleN
ex-RUSTEC#671-22-0
Nexus vs ex-RUSTEC
Sep 16LDust29-13Mirage13-8Cache8-13Bushido Wildcats vs ex-RUSTEC
Aug 13WNuke13-8Dust222-19
Metizport#680-22-0
Nexus vs Metizport
Jun 13LOverpass0-13Inferno3-13Bushido Wildcats vs Metizport
Aug 28WMirage13-9Nuke13-4
Phantom#720-20-2
Nexus vs Phantom
Feb 14LOverpass8-13Ancient11-13Bushido Wildcats vs Phantom
May 30LNuke14-16Mirage9-13
UNiTY#921-21-2
Nexus vs UNiTY
Aug 9LAncient13-6Mirage11-13Cache14-16Bushido Wildcats vs UNiTY
Aug 29LInferno3-13Dust213-6Mirage10-13
Permitta#1002-04-0
Nexus vs Permitta
Sep 19WCache13-2Ancient13-8
G2 Ares#1030-25-2
Nexus vs G2 Ares
Aug 17LAnubis11-13Inferno15-19Bushido Wildcats vs G2 Ares
Sep 6LInferno10-13Dust216-14Anubis12-16Aug 26WInferno13-6Dust213-11Feb 12WMirage13-6Anubis13-7EX-ex-RUBY#1041-20-2
Nexus vs ex-RUBY
Feb 16LAncient9-13Mirage13-4Dust23-13Bushido Wildcats vs ex-RUBY
Jun 5LDust210-13Nuke9-13
Spirit Academy#1090-22-0
Nexus vs Spirit Academy
Sep 18LDust21-13Cache8-13Bushido Wildcats vs Spirit Academy
Sep 5WNuke13-4Dust213-7Map lab
Bushido Wildcats71%to win the Bo3 · most likely Bushido Wildcats 2-0
If the veto goes
Nexus 29%how the series ends71% Bushido Wildcats
8%2-041%
21%2-129%
Nexus51%7-8vsBushido Wildcats49%12-14
47%Win46%
49%CT49%
55%T52%
50%Pistol62%
100%Conv81%
Nexus17%4-10vsBushido Wildcats83%40-17
29%Win70%
43%CT55%
41%T58%
57%Pistol56%
81%Conv92%
Nexus42%2-3vsBushido Wildcats58%8-7
40%Win53%
55%CT49%
51%T47%
90%Pistol50%
89%Conv73%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
NexusAnubisBushido Wildcats
49%CT side49%
55%T side52%
50%Pistol62%
100%After win81%
27%After loss25%
NexusDust2Bushido Wildcats
43%CT side55%
41%T side58%
57%Pistol56%
81%After win92%
0%After loss20%
NexusCacheBushido Wildcats
55%CT side49%
51%T side47%
90%Pistol50%
89%After win73%
0%After loss20%
Pistol rounds59% · 57% · level, no edge
After a won pistol90% · 86% · Nexus keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol15% · 21% · Bushido Wildcats fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Nexus vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNEXBUS
NukeNEX ban0%0-138%16-26
AncientBUS ban43%6-80%0-1
Nexus on Ancient
WPermitta13–82d agoWUNiTY13–61mo agoW
LPH13–21mo agoL
Alliance1–133mo agoL
Inner Circle14–166mo agoL
aimclub4–136mo agoW
BC.Game13–106mo agoL
OG4–136mo agoBushido Wildcats on Ancient
L
SPARTA6–132mo agoAnubisNEX pick47%7-846%12-14
Dust2BUS pick29%4-1070%40-17
MirageNEX ban60%6-458%28-20
InfernoBUS ban62%8-539%9-14
Cachedecider40%2-353%8-7
Each team's usual first ban: Nexus Nuke · Bushido Wildcats Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Nexus
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/37 (16%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 37 maps they won, 6 (16%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 16% of their wins were comebacks, not 16% of all games.vs PUREInfernofrom 5 downvs AllianceAnubisfrom 5 downvs PUREAnubisfrom 4 downvs GamersLabDust2from 4 downvs AllianceInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/43 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 43 maps they lost, 15 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PUREMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs kONODust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs ex-RUSTECDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs Inner CircleAncientled 5 · lost 14-16vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PUREInfernofrom 5 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PUREMirageled 7 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsAncient15-19vs AllianceInferno16-14vs aimclubInferno16-14vs Inner CircleAncient14-16vs PUREMirage12-16
Bushido Wildcats
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/118 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 118 maps they won, 29 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs MOUZ NXTDust2from 10 downvs SPARTAAnubisfrom 9 downvs MASONICAnubisfrom 6 downvs G2 AresDust2from 6 downvs Nordic PartnersCachefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i41/106 (39%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 106 maps they lost, 41 (39%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTAAncientled 7 · lost 6-13vs AzuolasNukeled 7 · lost 6-13vs VP.ProdigyDust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs PhantomNukeled 6 · lost 14-16vs Fire FluxNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MOUZ NXTDust2from 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTAAncientled 7 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs ALGONuke14-16vs BebopMirage15-19vs MASONICOverpass25-22vs LeoNuke16-19vs CSDIILITNuke19-16