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Predictions / Ninjas in Pyjamas vs M80 · match preview
Ninjas in Pyjamas vs M80: CS2 match prediction · Logitech G Play Connect 2026
Ninjas in Pyjamas
World #29 · 32-33
VS
2026-09-17 09:00 UTC
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
M80
World #26 · 38-25
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
54%46%
50%
1.861.88Market · 2 books
50%The call
Ninjas in Pyjamas are favoured: our model gives them 54% against M80. Bookmakers lean Ninjas in Pyjamas at 50%. Record slightly favours M80, form clearly favours M80, firepower clearly favours M80, head-to-head slightly favours Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Likely mapsAncient · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Ninjas in PyjamaspullM80
Team strength1607160850/50
Track record32–33
38–2558/42 M80
Recent formLWLLL
WWLWW70/30 M80
Roster rating1.08
1.1270/30 M80
Head-to-head3 maps
2 maps57/43 NIN
Bookmakers imply 50% for Ninjas in Pyjamas (1.86 / 1.88); we land 4 points higher at 54%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (155 maps of Ninjas in Pyjamas, 133 of M80). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: split 1–1.
Bottom line: Ninjas in Pyjamas to beat M80, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNinjas in Pyjamas · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| xKacpersky★ | 1.06 | 82.2 | 72.4% | 54% | 1.18 |
| stavn | 1.2 | 74.3 | 71.7% | 32% | 1.12 |
| sjuush | 0.98 | 70.1 | 70.5% | 56% | 1.06 |
| n0te | 0.94 | 70.5 | 70.2% | 57% | 1.04 |
| Krimbo | 0.96 | 67 | 68.5% | 58% | 1 |
M80 · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Ninjas in Pyjamas
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents2mo ago
Ninjas in Pyjamas2 : 0
M80!7mo ago Ninjas in Pyjamas1 : 2 M80!
Ninjas in Pyjamas2 : 0 M80!⚠ Different lineup
Ninjas in Pyjamas
outSnappi
inKrimbo
Ninjas in Pyjamas1 : 2 M80!⚠ Different lineup
Ninjas in Pyjamas
outSnappi, cairne, r1nkle
inKrimbo, n0te, stavn
Legacy#61-30-4
G2#80-21-4
Ninjas in Pyjamas vs G2
Mar 5LAnubis10-13Dust213-16
B8#160-11-2
Ninjas in Pyjamas vs B8
May 20LAncient9-13
GamerLegion#203-30-2
Ninjas in Pyjamas vs GamerLegion
Apr 2LNuke13-6Mirage11-13Ancient11-13Feb 8WNuke13-10Mirage12-16Ancient13-10M80 vs GamerLegion
Jan 5LMirage9-13Inferno11-13
Alliance#212-12-1
M80 vs Alliance
Apr 2WAnubis11-13Inferno13-2Overpass13-5
Liquid#222-64-4
paiN#270-21-0
Ninjas in Pyjamas vs paiN
Jul 26LNuke6-13Mirage14-16M80 vs paiN
May 20WMirage13-8
Lynn Vision#341-21-0
Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Lynn Vision
May 21LDust28-13Nuke13-9Ancient3-13M80 vs Lynn Vision
Jun 2WInferno13-8Map lab
M8083%to win the Bo3 · most likely M80 2-1
If the veto goes
Ninjas in Pyjamas 17%how the series ends83% M80
14%2-035%
2%2-148%
Ninjas in Pyjamas51%17-16vsM8049%10-10
52%Win50%
53%CT59%
49%T43%
52%Pistol58%
85%Conv83%
Ninjas in Pyjamas28%11-16vsM8072%21-11
41%Win66%
58%CT56%
41%T50%
56%Pistol44%
83%Conv82%
Ninjas in Pyjamas5%0-6vsM8095%5-1
0%Win83%
35%CT65%
41%T60%
33%Pistol83%
75%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Ninjas in PyjamasAncientM80
53%CT side59%
49%T side43%
52%Pistol58%
85%After win83%
13%After loss18%
Ninjas in PyjamasMirageM80
58%CT side56%
41%T side50%
56%Pistol44%
83%After win82%
9%After loss14%
Ninjas in PyjamasCacheM80
35%CT side65%
41%T side60%
33%Pistol83%
75%After win100%
13%After loss50%
Pistol rounds52% · 53% · level, no edge
After a won pistol84% · 85% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol11% · 16% · M80 fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Ninjas in Pyjamas vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
M80 habitually bans Nuke, Ninjas in Pyjamas's strongest maps (Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Nuke 59/63), not an opponent read, so expect Ninjas in Pyjamas to fight the veto for Nuke.
MapNINM80
InfernoNIN ban57%4-356%18-14
NukeM80 ban75%30-10n/a0g
Ninjas in Pyjamas on Nuke
W
Inner Circle13–96d agoW
SINNERS13–117d agoW
Sangal16–1213d agoL
Astralis3–131mo agoW
BetBoom13–31mo agoLpaiN6–132mo agoW
HEROIC13–82mo agoW
Echo16–142mo agoM80 on Nuke
no recent maps
AncientNIN pick52%17-1650%10-10
MirageM80 pick41%11-1666%21-11
Dust2NIN ban37%7-1258%15-11
AnubisM80 ban50%8-850%4-4
Cachedecider0%0-683%5-1
Each team's usual first ban: Ninjas in Pyjamas Inferno · M80 Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Ninjas in Pyjamas
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i27/79 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 79 maps they won, 27 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs EchoNukefrom 7 downvs M1X KSDust2from 6 downvs MonteNukefrom 6 downvs fnaticMiragefrom 6 downvs SINNERSNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/75 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 75 maps they lost, 26 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs HEROICMirageled 8 · lost 12-16vs MonteAnubisled 6 · lost 14-16vs LegacyAncientled 5 · lost 13-16vs BIGMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs paiNMirageled 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs EchoNukefrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs HEROICMirageled 8 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs LiquidAncient13-16vs BC.GameDust214-16vs M1X KSOverpass13-16vs GamerLegionMirage12-16vs 100 ThievesAncient12-16
M80
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/79 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 79 maps they won, 22 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs VocaAnubisfrom 6 downvs Passion UAMiragefrom 5 downvs AuroraAnubisfrom 5 downvs WildcardDust2from 5 downvs NRGInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/54 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 54 maps they lost, 18 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FalconsInfernoled 6 · lost 15-19vs VocaMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs LiquidMirageled 5 · lost 13-16vs FalconsAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncientled 5 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs VocaAnubisfrom 6 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FalconsInfernoled 6 · lost 15-19
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs LiquidMirage13-16vs WildcardDust216-14vs FalconsInferno15-19vs B8Inferno20-22vs LegacyInferno13-16