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Predictions / Luminosity vs Ninjas in Pyjamas · match preview
Luminosity vs Ninjas in Pyjamas: CS2 match prediction · Logitech G Play Connect 2026
Luminosity
World #37 · 3-6
VS
2026-09-17 15:00 UTC
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3
Ninjas in Pyjamas
World #29 · 32-33
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3
40%60%
48%
1.971.8Market · 2 books
52%The call
Ninjas in Pyjamas are favoured: our model gives them 60% against Luminosity. Bookmakers lean Ninjas in Pyjamas at 52%. Strength clearly favours Ninjas in Pyjamas, record slightly favours Ninjas in Pyjamas, form slightly favours Luminosity, firepower slightly favours Luminosity, head-to-head slightly favours Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Likely mapsDust2 · Nuke · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LuminositypullNinjas in Pyjamas
Team strength1503
160771/29 NIN
Track record3–6
32–3363/37 NIN
Recent formLWWWL
LWLLL65/35 LUM
Roster rating1.07
1.0866/34 LUM
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 NIN
Bookmakers imply 48% for Luminosity (1.97 / 1.8); we land 8 points lower at 40%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 82% our own signal (19 maps of Luminosity, 155 of Ninjas in Pyjamas). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Ninjas in Pyjamas leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Ninjas in Pyjamas to beat Luminosity, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLuminosity · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainwaker★ | 1 | 72.8 | 69.8% | 52% | 1.11 |
| afro | 1.11 | 68 | 72.2% | 28% | 1.09 |
| lux | 0.91 | 74.6 | 71.2% | 57% | 1.08 |
| yxngstxr | 1.03 | 69.1 | 75.9% | 57% | 1.05 |
| AZUWU | 0.93 | 68.4 | 70.9% | 61% | 1.04 |
Ninjas in Pyjamas · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| xKacpersky★ | 1.06 | 82.2 | 72.4% | 54% | 1.18 |
| stavn | 1.2 | 74.3 | 71.7% | 32% | 1.12 |
| sjuush | 0.98 | 70.1 | 70.5% | 56% | 1.06 |
| n0te | 0.94 | 70.5 | 70.2% | 57% | 1.04 |
| Krimbo | 0.96 | 67 | 68.5% | 58% | 1 |
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
GamerLegion#200-13-3
Luminosity vs GamerLegion
Aug 12LNuke3-13Ninjas in Pyjamas vs GamerLegion
Apr 2LNuke13-6Mirage11-13Ancient11-13Feb 8WNuke13-10Mirage12-16Ancient13-10
M80#262-33-2
Lynn Vision#340-11-2
Luminosity vs Lynn Vision
Jul 2LInferno8-13Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Lynn Vision
May 21LDust28-13Nuke13-9Ancient3-13
SAW#712-11-0
Luminosity vs SAW
Sep 12WInferno11-13Dust213-2Nuke13-5Ninjas in Pyjamas vs SAW
Mar 12WAnubis13-10Map lab
Ninjas in Pyjamas55%to win the Bo3 · most likely Ninjas in Pyjamas 2-1
If the veto goes
Luminosity 45%how the series ends55% Ninjas in Pyjamas
24%2-026%
21%2-130%
Luminosity54%2-3vsNinjas in Pyjamas46%7-12
40%Win37%
61%CT46%
57%T42%
80%Pistol53%
88%Conv80%
Luminosity44%3-1vsNinjas in Pyjamas56%30-10
75%Win75%
62%CT64%
53%T52%
25%Pistol46%
50%Conv78%
Luminosity41%0-2vsNinjas in Pyjamas59%17-16
0%Win52%
25%CT53%
42%T49%
50%Pistol52%
50%Conv85%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LuminosityDust2Ninjas in Pyjamas
61%CT side46%
57%T side42%
80%Pistol53%
88%After win80%
0%After loss6%
LuminosityNukeNinjas in Pyjamas
62%CT side64%
53%T side52%
25%Pistol46%
50%After win78%
17%After loss47%
LuminosityAncientNinjas in Pyjamas
25%CT side53%
42%T side49%
50%Pistol52%
50%After win85%
0%After loss13%
Pistol rounds55% · 49% · Luminosity win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol75% · 81% · Ninjas in Pyjamas keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol10% · 27% · Ninjas in Pyjamas fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Luminosity vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapLUMNIN
CacheLUM ban0%0-10%0-6
Luminosity on Cache
LM8010–133d ago
InfernoNIN ban20%1-457%4-3
Dust2LUM pick40%2-337%7-12
NukeNIN pick75%3-175%30-10
AnubisLUM bann/a0g50%8-8
Luminosity on Anubis
no recent maps
MirageNIN ban50%1-141%11-16
Ancientdecider0%0-252%17-16
Each team's usual first ban: Luminosity Mirage · Ninjas in Pyjamas Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Luminosity
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/7 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 7 maps they won, 2 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs Ninjas in PyjamasNukefrom 4 downvs LPNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/12 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 12 maps they lost, 4 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs SAWInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs M80Dust2led 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Ninjas in PyjamasNukefrom 4 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs SpiritDust215-19
Ninjas in Pyjamas
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i27/79 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 79 maps they won, 27 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs EchoNukefrom 7 downvs M1X KSDust2from 6 downvs MonteNukefrom 6 downvs fnaticMiragefrom 6 downvs SINNERSNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/75 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 75 maps they lost, 26 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs HEROICMirageled 8 · lost 12-16vs MonteAnubisled 6 · lost 14-16vs LegacyAncientled 5 · lost 13-16vs BIGMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs paiNMirageled 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs EchoNukefrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs HEROICMirageled 8 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs LiquidAncient13-16vs BC.GameDust214-16vs M1X KSOverpass13-16vs GamerLegionMirage12-16vs 100 ThievesAncient12-16