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Predictions / BBL vs 3DMAX · match preview
BBL vs 3DMAX: CS2 match prediction · Logitech G Play Connect 2026
BBL
World #54 · 4-4
VS
2026-09-18 12:00 UTC
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3
3DMAX
World #23 · 32-40
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3
44%56%
29%
3.251.3Market · 2 books
71%The call
3DMAX are favoured: our model gives them 56% against BBL. Bookmakers lean 3DMAX at 71%. Form slightly favours BBL, firepower clearly favours 3DMAX, head-to-head slightly favours BBL.
Likely mapsNuke · Cache · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BBLpull3DMAX
Team strength1545
157456/44 3DM
Track record4–4
32–4053/47 BBL
Recent formLWWWL
LLWWW58/42 BBL
Roster rating1.04
1.0785/15 3DM
Head-to-head2 maps
1 maps60/40 BBL
Bookmakers imply 29% for BBL (3.25 / 1.3); we land 15 points higher at 44%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 81% our own signal (18 maps of BBL, 156 of 3DMAX). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: BBL leads 1–0.
Bottom line: 3DMAX to beat BBL, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBBL · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
3DMAX · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HOTU#281-22-1
BBL vs HOTU
Sep 13LAnubis13-16Nuke13-7Cache7-133DMAX vs HOTU
Sep 3WDust213-7Anubis17-19Ancient13-6
100 Thieves#352-10-2
BBL vs 100 Thieves
Sep 9WAncient13-5Inferno6-13Nuke13-53DMAX vs 100 Thieves
Sep 11LAncient9-13Dust27-13Map lab
BBL52%to win the Bo3 · most likely BBL 2-1
If the veto goes
BBL 52%how the series ends48% 3DMAX
19%2-031%
32%2-117%
BBL46%3-3vs3DMAX54%14-12
50%Win54%
56%CT62%
41%T42%
42%Pistol58%
80%Conv80%
BBL42%1-2vs3DMAX58%7-5
33%Win58%
47%CT56%
42%T48%
17%Pistol58%
100%Conv86%
BBL65%3-2vs3DMAX35%12-20
60%Win38%
55%CT44%
48%T53%
60%Pistol45%
83%Conv79%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BBLNuke3DMAX
56%CT side62%
41%T side42%
42%Pistol58%
80%After win80%
0%After loss27%
BBLCache3DMAX
47%CT side56%
42%T side48%
17%Pistol58%
100%After win86%
0%After loss10%
BBLInferno3DMAX
55%CT side44%
48%T side53%
60%Pistol45%
83%After win79%
0%After loss23%
Pistol rounds43% · 52% · 3DMAX win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 81% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol0% · 22% · 3DMAX fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BBL vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBBL3DM
Dust2BBL bann/a0g53%20-18
BBL on Dust2
no recent maps
Mirage3DM ban100%1-0n/a0g
BBL on Mirage
W
UPGRADE13–1110d ago3DMAX on Mirage
no recent maps
NukeBBL pick50%3-354%14-12
Cache3DM pick33%1-258%7-5
AnubisBBL ban0%0-150%6-6
Ancient3DM ban50%1-141%11-16
Infernodecider60%3-238%12-20
Each team's usual first ban: BBL Dust2 · 3DMAX Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BBL
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/9 (56%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 9 maps they won, 5 (56%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 56% of their wins were comebacks, not 56% of all games.vs UPGRADEMiragefrom 7 downvs fnaticInfernofrom 4 downvs 3DMAXCachefrom 4 downvs WildcardInfernofrom 4 downvs HOTUNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/9 (22%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 9 maps they lost, 2 (22%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs HOTUAnubisled 4 · lost 13-16vs 100 ThievesInfernoled 3 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs UPGRADEMiragefrom 7 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs HOTUAnubisled 4 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi44% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT44% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs Black PhoenixInferno13-16vs 3DMAXCache16-13vs WildcardInferno16-12vs HOTUAnubis13-16
3DMAX
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i16/73 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 73 maps they won, 16 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs B8Nukefrom 9 downvs INFINITECachefrom 8 downvs FUTAnubisfrom 7 downvs LiquidNukefrom 7 downvs VocaAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/82 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 82 maps they lost, 21 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FalconsInfernoled 8 · lost 10-13vs magicDust2led 7 · lost 6-13vs VocaDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs AllianceInfernoled 6 · lost 17-19vs BESTIADust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs B8Nukefrom 9 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FalconsInfernoled 8 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs Inner CircleNuke16-13vs FUTAncient13-16vs FUTAnubis16-13vs paiNInferno14-16vs Gaimin GladiatorsDust216-14