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Predictions / Teletubisie vs ex-Zero Tenacity · match preview
Teletubisie vs ex-Zero Tenacity: CS2 match prediction · Exort Fiesta Series 2
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
33%67%
41%
2.241.53Market · 2 books
59%The call · high confidence
ex-Zero Tenacity are favoured: our model gives them 67% against Teletubisie. Bookmakers lean ex-Zero Tenacity at 59%. Strength clearly favours ex-Zero Tenacity, firepower clearly favours ex-Zero Tenacity.
Likely mapsMirage · Cache · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Teletubisiepullex-Zero Tenacity
Team strength1507
164477/23 EX-
Track record1–2
61–5952/48 EX-
Recent formWLL
LLWWW53/47 EX-
Roster rating1.02
1.1593/7 EX-
Bookmakers imply 41% for Teletubisie (2.24 / 1.53); we land 8 points lower at 33%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 68% our own signal (8 maps of Teletubisie, 292 of ex-Zero Tenacity).
Bottom line: ex-Zero Tenacity to beat Teletubisie, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsTeletubisie · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ex-Zero Tenacity · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLDN★ | 1.15 | 77 | 77.5% | 53% | 1.21 |
| Cjoffo | 1.1 | 70.7 | 72.7% | 63% | 1.15 |
| Kind0 | 1.06 | 78.5 | 72.5% | 49% | 1.14 |
| brutmonster | 1.13 | 74.5 | 70.6% | 37% | 1.13 |
| Dragon | 1.07 | 79.6 | 72.2% | 52% | 1.12 |
Recent form
Teletubisie
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
fnatic#421-21-2
Teletubisie vs fnatic
Aug 30LMirage13-10Cache8-13Anubis2-13ex-Zero Tenacity vs fnatic
May 18LInferno12-16Anubis13-7Dust214-16
Honvéd#1291-22-0
Teletubisie vs Honvéd
Sep 11LCache9-13Dust213-10Anubis7-13ex-Zero Tenacity vs Honvéd
Aug 26WMirage13-7Cache16-13Map lab
ex-Zero Tenacity55%to win the Bo3 · most likely ex-Zero Tenacity 2-0
If the veto goes
Teletubisie 45%how the series ends55% ex-Zero Tenacity
20%2-029%
26%2-126%
Teletubisie54%1-0vsex-Zero Tenacity46%18-25
100%Win42%
73%CT50%
42%T43%
50%Pistol40%
100%Conv79%
Teletubisie37%0-2vsex-Zero Tenacity63%16-5
0%Win76%
45%CT58%
33%T60%
25%Pistol55%
100%Conv95%
Teletubisie50%0-0thinex-Zero Tenacity50%32-27
–Win54%
–CT56%
–T47%
–Pistol54%
–Conv78%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
TeletubisieMirageex-Zero Tenacity
73%CT side50%
42%T side43%
50%Pistol40%
100%After win79%
0%After loss19%
TeletubisieCacheex-Zero Tenacity
45%CT side58%
33%T side60%
25%Pistol55%
100%After win95%
33%After loss16%
TeletubisieNukeex-Zero Tenacity
–CT side56%
–T side47%
–Pistol54%
–After win78%
–After loss30%
Pistol rounds33% · 49% · ex-Zero Tenacity win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol100% · 82% · Teletubisie keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol25% · 23% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Teletubisie vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapTELEX-
InfernoTEL bann/a0g62%31-19
Teletubisie on Inferno
no recent maps
AncientEX- bann/a0gn/a0g
Teletubisie on Ancient
no recent maps
ex-Zero Tenacity on Ancient
no recent maps
MirageTEL pick100%1-042%18-25
Teletubisie on Mirage
Wfnatic13–1017d ago
CacheEX- pick0%0-276%16-5
AnubisTEL ban0%0-248%12-13
Dust2EX- ban100%1-053%34-30
Nukedecidern/a0g54%32-27
Teletubisie on Nuke
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: Teletubisie Inferno · ex-Zero Tenacity Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Teletubisie
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/2 (100%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 2 (100%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 100% of their wins were comebacks, not 100% of all games.vs HonvédDust2from 6 downvs fnaticMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/4 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs HonvédDust2from 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni1 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
ex-Zero Tenacity
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i43/149 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 149 maps they won, 43 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs WBTCachefrom 10 downvs STATEInfernofrom 7 downvs KOLESIEDust2from 7 downvs HEROIC AcademyMiragefrom 6 downvs LavkedDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i43/137 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 137 maps they lost, 43 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs STATEOverpassled 6 · lost 13-16vs HashirasInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13vs HAVUNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs Subtop De FranceDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs benched godsDust2led 6 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTCachefrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs STATEOverpassled 6 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsInferno16-14vs los kogutosNuke14-16vs ex-RUBYAnubis16-19vs ASTRALAnubis16-14vs STATEOverpass13-16