Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / Saint Sinners vs Illyrians · match preview
Saint Sinners vs Illyrians: CS2 match prediction · Exort Fiesta Series 2
SAI
Saint Sinners
World #– · 2-4
VS
2026-09-18 14:00 UTC
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
Illyrians
World #– · 1-2
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
55%45%
The call
Saint Sinners are favoured: our model gives them 55% against Illyrians. No odds yet. Record slightly favours Illyrians, form slightly favours Saint Sinners, firepower clearly favours Saint Sinners.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Saint SinnerspullIllyrians
Team strength1482
149252/48 ILL
Track record2–4
1–257/43 ILL
Recent formWWLLL
LWL65/35 SAI
Roster rating1.09
1.0182/18 SAI
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 66% our own signal (14 maps of Saint Sinners, 7 of Illyrians; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: Saint Sinners to beat Illyrians, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsSaint Sinners · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodos1k★ | 1.01 | 82.8 | 75.5% | 68% | 1.26 |
| halfjix | 1.01 | 75.2 | 65.9% | 49% | 1.08 |
| pavlysha666 | 0.88 | 76 | 71.8% | 52% | 1.08 |
| Caleyy | 1 | 77.8 | 67% | 65% | 1.04 |
| deb0 | 0.87 | 68.3 | 67.3% | 63% | 0.97 |
Illyrians · avg 1.01 · star gap +0.29iStar gap: the best player rates 0.29 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Permitta#1002-02-0
Saint Sinners vs Permitta
Sep 15WNuke13-8Dust213-9Illyrians vs Permitta
Sep 14WAnubis13-8Mirage13-9Map lab
Saint Sinners51%to win the Bo3 · most likely Saint Sinners 2-0
If the veto goes
Saint Sinners 51%how the series ends49% Illyrians
26%2-023%
25%2-125%
Saint Sinners58%1-1vsIllyrians42%0-2
50%Win0%
59%CT19%
46%T40%
25%Pistol0%
100%Conv–
Saint Sinners44%0-2vsIllyrians56%1-2
0%Win33%
18%CT55%
50%T26%
50%Pistol50%
50%Conv67%
Saint Sinners50%1-0vsIllyrians50%1-0
100%Win100%
50%CT56%
88%T67%
50%Pistol100%
100%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Saint SinnersDust2Illyrians
59%CT side19%
46%T side40%
25%Pistol0%
100%After win–
0%After loss0%
Saint SinnersMirageIllyrians
18%CT side55%
50%T side26%
50%Pistol50%
50%After win67%
0%After loss33%
Saint SinnersAnubisIllyrians
50%CT side56%
88%T side67%
50%Pistol100%
100%After win100%
0%After loss–
Pistol rounds40% · 42% · level, no edge
After a won pistol75% · 80% · Illyrians keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 14% · Illyrians fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Saint Sinners vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Illyrians habitually bans Nuke, Saint Sinners's strongest maps (Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Nuke 3/3), not an opponent read, so expect Saint Sinners to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapSAIILL
CacheSAI ban0%0-1n/a0g
Saint Sinners on Cache
L
Spirit Academy4–138d agoIllyrians on Cache
no recent maps
NukeILL ban67%2-1n/a0g
Illyrians on Nuke
no recent maps
Dust2SAI pick50%1-10%0-2
MirageILL pick0%0-233%1-2
AncientSAI ban50%1-1100%1-0
Illyrians on Ancient
W
Vexar13–91d agoInfernoILL ban0%0-1n/a0g
Saint Sinners on Inferno
L
mellren10–135d agoIllyrians on Inferno
no recent maps
Anubisdecider100%1-0100%1-0
Saint Sinners on Anubis
WLavked13–71d agoIllyrians on Anubis
WPermitta13–83d agoEach team's usual first ban: Saint Sinners Cache · Illyrians Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Saint Sinners
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/5 (60%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 5 maps they won, 3 (60%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 60% of their wins were comebacks, not 60% of all games.vs LavkedAnubisfrom 6 downvs PermittaNukefrom 5 downvs PermittaDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/7 (71%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 7 maps they lost, 5 (71%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LavkedDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs Spirit AcademyNukeled 5 · lost 14-16vs Spirit AcademyMirageled 5 · lost 7-13vs Spirit AcademyCacheled 3 · lost 4-13vs mellrenInfernoled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedAnubisfrom 6 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LavkedDust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs Spirit AcademyNuke14-16vs mellrenNuke22-20
Illyrians
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/3 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 3 maps they won, 1 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs VexarAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/4 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs VexarAncientfrom 6 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni2 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini6.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample