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Predictions / PCIFIC vs Phantom Academy · match preview
PCIFIC vs Phantom Academy: CS2 match prediction · Exort Fiesta Series 2
PCIFIC
World #107 · 15-15
VS
2026-09-17 14:00 UTC
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
Phantom Academy
World #185 · 9-13
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
65%35%
53%
1.731.95Market · 4 books
47%The call
PCIFIC are favoured: our model gives them 65% against Phantom Academy. Bookmakers lean PCIFIC at 53%. Strength slightly favours PCIFIC, firepower clearly favours PCIFIC.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
PCIFICpullPhantom Academy
Team strength1538
148861/39 PCI
Track record15–15
9–1353/47 PCI
Recent formLWWLL
LWLWL53/47 PCI
Roster rating1.06
1.0683/17 PCI
Bookmakers imply 53% for PCIFIC (1.73 / 1.95); we land 12 points higher at 65%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (73 maps of PCIFIC, 52 of Phantom Academy).
Bottom line: PCIFIC to beat Phantom Academy, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsPCIFIC · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Phantom Academy · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
PCIFIC
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Honvéd#1292-01-2
PCIFIC vs Honvéd
Sep 13WMirage13-7Inferno13-5Phantom Academy vs Honvéd
Jul 5LMirage13-1Dust214-16Ancient6-13Map lab
Phantom Academy55%to win the Bo3 · most likely Phantom Academy 2-0
If the veto goes
PCIFIC 45%how the series ends55% Phantom Academy
18%2-033%
27%2-122%
PCIFIC43%13-10vsPhantom Academy57%4-2
57%Win67%
55%CT55%
50%T56%
54%Pistol42%
76%Conv100%
PCIFIC41%6-4vsPhantom Academy59%9-4
60%Win69%
59%CT63%
44%T47%
40%Pistol73%
100%Conv79%
PCIFIC56%6-6vsPhantom Academy44%3-4
50%Win43%
52%CT58%
44%T41%
33%Pistol50%
63%Conv71%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
PCIFICDust2Phantom Academy
55%CT side55%
50%T side56%
54%Pistol42%
76%After win100%
10%After loss29%
PCIFICMiragePhantom Academy
59%CT side63%
44%T side47%
40%Pistol73%
100%After win79%
17%After loss0%
PCIFICNukePhantom Academy
52%CT side58%
44%T side41%
33%Pistol50%
63%After win71%
19%After loss29%
Pistol rounds46% · 60% · Phantom Academy win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol78% · 81% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol14% · 19% · Phantom Academy fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, PCIFIC vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapPCIPHA
AncientPCI bann/a0g36%4-7
PCIFIC on Ancient
no recent maps
InfernoPHA ban42%5-70%0-1
PCIFIC on Inferno
L
UPGRADE8–131d agoWHonvéd13–54d agoL
Sashi1–135d agoW
Metizport13–816d agoLMetizport7–1317d agoL
Atreides11–1318d agoL
SPARTA6–1329d agoW
Fire Flux13–31mo agoPhantom Academy on Inferno
L
G2 Ares4–134mo agoDust2PCI pick57%13-1067%4-2
MiragePHA pick60%6-469%9-4
AnubisPCI ban20%2-840%2-3
PCIFIC on Anubis
LUPGRADE2–131d agoW
WBT Academy13–910d agoL
INOX Division5–1310d agoW
EAC13–512d agoLMetizport7–1316d agoL
BRUTE8–1316d agoL
Fortress11–1318d agoLDrip Too Hard7–1328d agoPhantom Academy on Anubis
L
Noir Verse6–135d agoL
benched gods7–136d agoW
Diamant13–113mo agoWImmuNe13–115mo agoL
TNT4–136mo agoCachePHA ban75%3-133%3-6
Each team's usual first ban: PCIFIC Ancient · Phantom Academy Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
PCIFIC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i16/35 (46%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 35 maps they won, 16 (46%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 46% of their wins were comebacks, not 46% of all games.vs MOUZ NXTDust2from 8 downvs DEPODust2from 6 downvs MOUZ NXTCachefrom 5 downvs KUUSAMODust2from 5 downvs KUUSAMOCachefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/36 (17%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 36 maps they lost, 6 (17%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Fire FluxDust2led 7 · lost 13-16vs MetizportNukeled 5 · lost 9-13vs 9INEInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs AtreidesMirageled 4 · lost 14-16vs 9INEDust2led 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MOUZ NXTDust2from 8 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Fire FluxDust2led 7 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs Rune EatersInferno22-19vs Fire FluxDust213-16vs AtreidesMirage14-16vs WBT AcademyDust216-19vs WBT AcademyNuke14-16
Phantom Academy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i12/25 (48%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 25 maps they won, 12 (48%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 48% of their wins were comebacks, not 48% of all games.vs Noir VerseCachefrom 13 downvs benched godsMiragefrom 7 downvs ImmuNeDust2from 6 downvs DiamantMiragefrom 6 downvs benched godsMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/27 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 27 maps they lost, 10 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MisaCacheled 7 · lost 11-13vs TNCAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs benched godsCacheled 5 · lost 10-13vs benched godsCacheled 5 · lost 6-13vs UNiTYDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 13 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Noir VerseCachefrom 13 down · won 13-0
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MisaCacheled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs TNCAncient12-16vs HonvédDust214-16vs benched godsMirage16-13vs ex-Zero TenacityNuke13-16vs benched godsMirage16-14