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Predictions / Falcons Force vs Teletubisie · match preview
Falcons Force vs Teletubisie: CS2 match prediction · Exort Fiesta Series 2
Falcons Force
World #131 · 18-22
VS
2026-09-19 17:00 UTC
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
Teletubisie
World #– · 2-3
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
51%49%
25%
3.751.25Market · 20 books
75%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 51–49. Bookmakers lean Teletubisie at 75%. Firepower clearly favours Falcons Force.
Likely mapsCache · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Falcons ForcepullTeletubisie
Team strength1502
151052/48 TEL
Track record18–22
2–354/46 TEL
Recent formWLLWLLWWLL50/50
Roster rating1.12
1.1387/13 FAL
Bookmakers imply 25% for Falcons Force (3.75 / 1.25); we land 26 points higher at 51%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 75% our own signal (89 maps of Falcons Force, 12 of Teletubisie).
Bottom line: Falcons Force to beat Teletubisie, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFalcons Force · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.18iStar gap: the best player rates 0.18 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Teletubisie · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.35iStar gap: the best player rates 0.35 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Falcons Force
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
fnatic#420-21-2
Falcons Force vs fnatic
May 19LMirage9-13Anubis13-16Teletubisie vs fnatic
Aug 30LMirage13-10Cache8-13Anubis2-13
Honvéd#1292-11-2
Falcons Force vs Honvéd
Aug 20WMirage13-10Ancient11-13Cache13-8Teletubisie vs Honvéd
Sep 11LCache9-13Dust213-10Anubis7-13
Vexar#1431-20-2
Falcons Force vs Vexar
Aug 26LAnubis22-20Mirage11-13Nuke11-13Teletubisie vs Vexar
Sep 17Lseries0-2Map lab
Falcons Force53%to win the Bo3 · most likely Falcons Force 2-0
If the veto goes
Falcons Force 53%how the series ends47% Teletubisie
27%2-021%
26%2-126%
Falcons Force64%6-1vsTeletubisie36%0-2
86%Win0%
69%CT45%
49%T33%
64%Pistol25%
89%Conv100%
Falcons Force42%10-9vsTeletubisie58%2-0
53%Win100%
56%CT71%
49%T58%
58%Pistol75%
82%Conv100%
Falcons Force50%6-9thinTeletubisie50%0-0
40%Win–
46%CT–
52%T–
60%Pistol–
78%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Falcons ForceCacheTeletubisie
69%CT side45%
49%T side33%
64%Pistol25%
89%After win100%
20%After loss33%
Falcons ForceMirageTeletubisie
56%CT side71%
49%T side58%
58%Pistol75%
82%After win100%
13%After loss0%
Falcons ForceAncientTeletubisie
46%CT side–
52%T side–
60%Pistol–
78%After win–
36%After loss–
Pistol rounds60% · 50% · Falcons Force win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol82% · 100% · Teletubisie keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol22% · 25% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Falcons Force vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Teletubisie habitually bans Anubis, Falcons Force's strongest maps (Anubis, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 3/5), not an opponent read, so expect Falcons Force to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapFALTEL
Dust2FAL ban22%2-7100%2-0
InfernoTEL ban50%9-9n/a0g
Falcons Force on Inferno
W
Fortress13–84d agoL
TrafficPills9–138d agoW
mellren13–99d agoW
BERG13–910d agoW
Enjoy13–1110d agoW
ZOTIX16–1314d agoL
ENCE11–1328d agoL
INOX Division11–132mo agoTeletubisie on Inferno
no recent maps
CacheFAL pick86%6-10%0-2
MirageTEL pick53%10-9100%2-0
NukeFAL ban15%2-11n/a0g
Falcons Force on Nuke
L
NAVI Junior14–165d agoWNAVI Junior13–56d agoLTrafficPills11–138d agoWBERG13–1110d agoLVexar11–1324d agoL
Endless Journey11–1326d agoLINOX Division8–132mo agoL
OLDBOYS PL10–133mo agoTeletubisie on Nuke
no recent maps
AnubisTEL ban71%5-20%0-2
Ancientdecider40%6-9n/a0g
Falcons Force on Ancient
WZOTIX13–914d agoLHonvéd11–131mo agoW
Permitta13–81mo agoL
brazylijski luz6–134mo agoW
MANA13–104mo agoL
SPARTA16–194mo agoL
AM13–164mo agoWMANA13–44mo agoTeletubisie on Ancient
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: Falcons Force Overpass · Teletubisie Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Falcons Force
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i12/40 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 40 maps they won, 12 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs VexarAnubisfrom 6 downvs ZOTIXAncientfrom 6 downvs ENCEAnubisfrom 5 downvs BebopCachefrom 4 downvs MisaCachefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/48 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 48 maps they lost, 20 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AaBAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs SharksAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs OLDBOYS PLNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs TrafficPillsNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs FamalicãoDust2led 5 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs VexarAnubisfrom 6 down · won 22-20
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AaBAncientled 6 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi43% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT43% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs JiJieHaoInferno20-22vs FamalicãoDust212-16vs fnaticAnubis13-16vs AMAncient13-16vs SPARTAAncient16-19
Teletubisie
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/4 (75%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 4 maps they won, 3 (75%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 75% of their wins were comebacks, not 75% of all games.vs HonvédDust2from 6 downvs fnaticMiragefrom 5 downvs ex-Zero TenacityDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/4 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs HonvédDust2from 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni1 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample