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Predictions / Virtus.pro vs BBL · match preview
Virtus.pro vs BBL: CS2 match prediction · Stake Pulse Beat II
Stake Pulse Beat II · Best of 3
70%30%
48%
1.941.78Market · 2 books
52%The call · high confidence
Virtus.pro are favoured: our model gives them 70% against BBL. Bookmakers lean BBL at 52%. Strength clearly favours Virtus.pro, record slightly favours Virtus.pro, form slightly favours Virtus.pro, firepower slightly favours Virtus.pro.
Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Virtus.propullBBL
Team strength1692
154578/22 VIR
Track record29–15
4–459/41 VIR
Recent formWWWWW
LWWWL61/39 VIR
Roster rating1.12
1.0470/30 VIR
Bookmakers imply 48% for Virtus.pro (1.94 / 1.78); we land 22 points higher at 70%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 81% our own signal (111 maps of Virtus.pro, 18 of BBL).
Bottom line: Virtus.pro to beat BBL, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsVirtus.pro · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
BBL · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Virtus.pro
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HOTU#283-01-2
Virtus.pro vs HOTU
Sep 13WDust216-14Anubis13-6Ancient16-13BBL vs HOTU
Sep 13LAnubis13-16Nuke13-7Cache7-13
fnatic#421-21-2
Virtus.pro vs fnatic
Sep 3LAnubis13-16Dust213-11Cache3-13BBL vs fnatic
Sep 5LCache11-13Inferno13-9Ancient11-13Map lab
Virtus.pro62%to win the Bo3 · most likely Virtus.pro 2-0
If the veto goes
Virtus.pro 62%how the series ends38% BBL
32%2-018%
30%2-120%
Virtus.pro49%14-8vsBBL51%1-0
64%Win100%
57%CT75%
48%T33%
32%Pistol50%
71%Conv0%
Virtus.pro64%8-4vsBBL36%3-3
67%Win50%
57%CT56%
49%T41%
46%Pistol42%
60%Conv80%
Virtus.pro60%5-3vsBBL40%1-2
63%Win33%
57%CT47%
43%T42%
56%Pistol17%
89%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Virtus.proMirageBBL
57%CT side75%
48%T side33%
32%Pistol50%
71%After win0%
33%After loss0%
Virtus.proNukeBBL
57%CT side56%
49%T side41%
46%Pistol42%
60%After win80%
0%After loss0%
Virtus.proCacheBBL
57%CT side47%
43%T side42%
56%Pistol17%
89%After win100%
0%After loss0%
Pistol rounds40% · 35% · Virtus.pro win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol73% · 71% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol20% · 0% · Virtus.pro fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Virtus.pro vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
BBL habitually bans Dust2, Virtus.pro's strongest maps (Dust2, Mirage, Ancient, Nuke, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Dust2 8/8), not an opponent read, so expect Virtus.pro to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapVIRBBL
InfernoVIR ban0%0-260%3-2
Dust2BBL ban60%18-12n/a0g
Virtus.pro on Dust2
WHOTU16–143d agoL
HEROIC2–133d agoW
K2713–85d agoW
BESTIA13–76d agoWfnatic13–1113d agoW
WBT13–615d agoW
Atreides13–416d agoW
Inner Circle Academy13–1017d agoBBL on Dust2
no recent maps
MirageVIR pick64%14-8100%1-0
NukeBBL pick67%8-450%3-3
AncientVIR ban83%10-250%1-1
AnubisBBL ban42%5-70%0-1
Cachedecider63%5-333%1-2
Each team's usual first ban: Virtus.pro Inferno · BBL Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Virtus.pro
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/66 (42%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 66 maps they won, 28 (42%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 42% of their wins were comebacks, not 42% of all games.vs CYBERSHOKEDust2from 9 downvs WBTDust2from 7 downvs 1winOverpassfrom 6 downvs PsychoFaceMiragefrom 6 downvs WWCachefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/43 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 43 maps they lost, 14 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs fnaticAnubisled 7 · lost 13-16vs GenOneDust2led 5 · lost 11-13vs K27Overpassled 5 · lost 10-13vs ex-RUBYMirageled 5 · lost 14-16vs SashiDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs CYBERSHOKEDust2from 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs fnaticAnubisled 7 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 15Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 15 went to overtime.vs RUSTECOverpass12-16vs BET-MNuke16-12vs ARCREDAncient22-20vs OxujiDust216-13vs K27Nuke19-17
BBL
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/9 (56%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 9 maps they won, 5 (56%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 56% of their wins were comebacks, not 56% of all games.vs UPGRADEMiragefrom 7 downvs fnaticInfernofrom 4 downvs 3DMAXCachefrom 4 downvs WildcardInfernofrom 4 downvs HOTUNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/9 (22%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 9 maps they lost, 2 (22%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs HOTUAnubisled 4 · lost 13-16vs 100 ThievesInfernoled 3 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs UPGRADEMiragefrom 7 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs HOTUAnubisled 4 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi44% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT44% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs Black PhoenixInferno13-16vs 3DMAXCache16-13vs WildcardInferno16-12vs HOTUAnubis13-16