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Predictions / Drama vs Saint Sinners · match preview
Drama vs Saint Sinners: CS2 match prediction · European Pro League Series 9
Drama
World #127 · 7-12
VS
2026-09-21 08:00 UTC
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
Saint Sinners
World #– · 2-4
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
56%44%
44%
2.071.62Market · 3 books
56%The call
Drama are favoured: our model gives them 56% against Saint Sinners. Bookmakers lean Saint Sinners at 56%. Form slightly favours Saint Sinners, firepower clearly favours Drama.
Likely mapsNuke · Dust2 · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
DramapullSaint Sinners
Team strength1491
148252/48 DRA
Track record7–12
2–456/44 DRA
Recent formLLLWW
WWLLL69/31 SAI
Roster rating1.12
1.0973/27 DRA
Bookmakers imply 44% for Drama (2.07 / 1.62); we land 12 points higher at 56%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 77% our own signal (44 maps of Drama, 14 of Saint Sinners).
Bottom line: Drama to beat Saint Sinners, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsDrama · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Saint Sinners · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodos1k★ | 1.01 | 82.8 | 75.5% | 68% | 1.26 |
| halfjix | 1.01 | 75.2 | 65.9% | 49% | 1.08 |
| pavlysha666 | 0.88 | 76 | 71.8% | 52% | 1.08 |
| Caleyy | 1 | 77.8 | 67% | 65% | 1.04 |
| deb0 | 0.87 | 68.3 | 67.3% | 63% | 0.97 |
Recent form
Drama
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
mellren#1301-21-2
Drama vs mellren
Sep 16LNuke13-8Inferno7-13Mirage7-13Saint Sinners vs mellren
Sep 12LInferno10-13Nuke22-20Mirage8-13Map lab
Drama55%to win the Bo3 · most likely Drama 2-1
If the veto goes
Drama 55%how the series ends45% Saint Sinners
23%2-026%
31%2-120%
Drama56%4-1vsSaint Sinners44%2-1
80%Win67%
70%CT56%
43%T52%
70%Pistol50%
71%Conv100%
Drama42%1-5vsSaint Sinners58%1-1
17%Win50%
43%CT59%
40%T46%
25%Pistol25%
100%Conv100%
Drama61%6-3vsSaint Sinners39%0-2
67%Win0%
60%CT18%
50%T50%
78%Pistol50%
93%Conv50%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
DramaNukeSaint Sinners
70%CT side56%
43%T side52%
70%Pistol50%
71%After win100%
33%After loss0%
DramaDust2Saint Sinners
43%CT side59%
40%T side46%
25%Pistol25%
100%After win100%
11%After loss0%
DramaMirageSaint Sinners
60%CT side18%
50%T side50%
78%Pistol50%
93%After win50%
0%After loss0%
Pistol rounds60% · 43% · Drama win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol88% · 83% · Drama keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol13% · 0% · Drama fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Drama vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapDRASAI
AnubisDRA ban0%0-1100%1-0
Drama on Anubis
L
Fire Flux7–138d agoSaint Sinners on Anubis
WLavked13–71d agoCacheSAI ban100%1-00%0-1
Drama on Cache
W
SINQU13–107d agoSaint Sinners on Cache
L
Spirit Academy4–138d agoNukeDRA pick80%4-167%2-1
Dust2SAI pick17%1-550%1-1
InfernoDRA ban25%2-60%0-1
AncientSAI ban42%5-750%1-1
Miragedecider67%6-30%0-2
Each team's usual first ban: Drama Anubis · Saint Sinners Cache.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Drama
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/19 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 19 maps they won, 5 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs mellrenNukefrom 6 downvs ENCEMiragefrom 6 downvs ZOTIXNukefrom 5 downvs HYPERSPIRITMiragefrom 3 downvs fnaticAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/25 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 25 maps they lost, 10 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs yngodsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs Eternal FireInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs FaZeNukeled 6 · lost 9-13vs INOX DivisionAncientled 5 · lost 8-13vs HYPERSPIRITAncientled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs mellrenNukefrom 6 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs yngodsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs ZOTIXDust213-16vs fnaticAncient16-14vs SINQUInferno16-19vs INOX DivisionInferno12-16
Saint Sinners
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/5 (60%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 5 maps they won, 3 (60%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 60% of their wins were comebacks, not 60% of all games.vs LavkedAnubisfrom 6 downvs PermittaNukefrom 5 downvs PermittaDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/7 (71%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 7 maps they lost, 5 (71%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LavkedDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs Spirit AcademyNukeled 5 · lost 14-16vs Spirit AcademyMirageled 5 · lost 7-13vs Spirit AcademyCacheled 3 · lost 4-13vs mellrenInfernoled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedAnubisfrom 6 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LavkedDust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs Spirit AcademyNuke14-16vs mellrenNuke22-20