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Predictions / QUAZAR vs Misa · match preview
QUAZAR vs Misa: CS2 match prediction · European Pro League Series 9
QUAZAR
World #87 · 32-16
VS
2026-09-23 08:00 UTC
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
Misa
World #118 · 40-49
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
75%25%
69%
1.342.95Market · 3 books
31%The call · high confidence
QUAZAR are favoured: our model gives them 75% against Misa. Bookmakers lean QUAZAR at 69%. Strength clearly favours QUAZAR, record slightly favours QUAZAR, form slightly favours QUAZAR, firepower clearly favours QUAZAR, head-to-head slightly favours QUAZAR.
Likely mapsAnubis · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
QUAZARpullMisa
Team strength1609
150471/29 QUA
Track record32–16
40–4962/38 QUA
Recent formWWWWL
LWWWL59/41 QUA
Roster rating1.14
1.0685/15 QUA
Head-to-head2 maps
1 maps60/40 QUA
Bookmakers imply 69% for QUAZAR (1.34 / 2.95); we land 6 points higher at 75%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (117 maps of QUAZAR, 214 of Misa). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: QUAZAR leads 1–0.
Bottom line: QUAZAR to beat Misa, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsQUAZAR · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Misa · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
QUAZAR
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
WBT#631-21-6
ex-RUSTEC#642-01-2
QUAZAR vs ex-RUSTEC
Sep 16WNuke16-12Mirage13-10Misa vs ex-RUSTEC
Sep 13LInferno16-13Anubis8-13Dust28-13
Bushido Wildcats#722-07-4
QUAZAR vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 13WNuke13-7Inferno13-6Misa vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 13WCache11-13Mirage13-7Anubis13-10Sep 12WNuke13-9Cache13-2Aug 18LNuke13-9Anubis7-13+1 earlier meeting
EAC#752-01-2
QUAZAR vs EAC
Aug 27WNuke13-10Mirage13-9Misa vs EAC
Aug 14LAnubis13-8Cache14-16Mirage4-13
Black Phoenix#792-12-1
QUAZAR vs Black Phoenix
Sep 21WDust24-13Cache13-7Nuke13-9Misa vs Black Phoenix
Jul 27WDust27-13Anubis13-8Inferno13-6
Permitta#1032-10-2
QUAZAR vs Permitta
Sep 15WMirage8-13Nuke13-10Anubis13-3Misa vs Permitta
Aug 27LCache13-16Ancient3-13
G2 Ares#1132-13-5
Fire Flux#1172-10-2
QUAZAR vs Fire Flux
Jun 21WDust24-13Mirage13-3Anubis13-11Misa vs Fire Flux
Apr 14LMirage5-13Inferno7-13Map lab
QUAZAR64%to win the Bo3 · most likely QUAZAR 2-1
If the veto goes
QUAZAR 64%how the series ends36% Misa
25%2-023%
39%2-113%
QUAZAR63%12-6vsMisa37%19-17
67%Win53%
61%CT48%
53%T50%
58%Pistol47%
95%Conv88%
QUAZAR39%8-11vsMisa61%28-24
42%Win54%
45%CT52%
48%T51%
55%Pistol48%
76%Conv82%
QUAZAR74%9-4vsMisa26%10-15
69%Win40%
57%CT56%
60%T44%
62%Pistol56%
94%Conv89%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
QUAZARAnubisMisa
61%CT side48%
53%T side50%
58%Pistol47%
95%After win88%
7%After loss16%
QUAZARDust2Misa
45%CT side52%
48%T side51%
55%Pistol48%
76%After win82%
12%After loss22%
QUAZARCacheMisa
57%CT side56%
60%T side44%
62%Pistol56%
94%After win89%
10%After loss14%
Pistol rounds58% · 50% · QUAZAR win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol88% · 86% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol10% · 18% · Misa fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, QUAZAR vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapQUAMIS
AncientQUA bann/a0g33%1-2
QUAZAR on Ancient
no recent maps
MirageMIS ban68%17-843%15-20
AnubisQUA pick67%12-653%19-17
Dust2MIS pick42%8-1154%28-24
InfernoQUA ban38%5-850%12-12
NukeMIS ban59%13-944%14-18
Each team's usual first ban: QUAZAR Ancient · Misa Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
QUAZAR
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/69 (41%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 69 maps they won, 28 (41%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 41% of their wins were comebacks, not 41% of all games.vs The Last ResortAnubisfrom 10 downvs NAVI JuniorDust2from 10 downvs NAVI JuniorNukefrom 8 downvs G2 AresCachefrom 7 downvs RUSTECOverpassfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/48 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 48 maps they lost, 18 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Black PhoenixDust2led 9 · lost 4-13vs The Last ResortNukeled 8 · lost 5-13vs ENCE AcademyNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs WingmanDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs CSDIILITAnubisled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The Last ResortAnubisfrom 10 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Black PhoenixDust2led 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs HEROIC AcademyMirage16-14vs CSDIILITMirage16-12vs zajezdzaczeNuke13-16vs RUSTECDust215-19vs M1X KSMirage22-20
Misa
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i33/101 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 101 maps they won, 33 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs WBTAnubisfrom 10 downvs ex-MANAInfernofrom 8 downvs G2 AresDust2from 8 downvs ex-MANAInfernofrom 7 downvs Phantom AcademyCachefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i41/113 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 113 maps they lost, 41 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EntropyCacheled 9 · lost 11-13vs G2 AresInfernoled 9 · lost 4-13vs EntropyCacheled 8 · lost 8-13vs ex-MANAMirageled 7 · lost 10-13vs Young NinjasNukeled 6 · lost 17-19
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTAnubisfrom 10 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EntropyCacheled 9 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 29Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 29 went to overtime.vs LPHInferno15-19vs LPHNuke13-16vs 9INEOverpass19-17vs Endless JourneyInferno19-15vs Young NinjasNuke17-19