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Predictions / FURIA vs MIBR · match preview
FURIA vs MIBR: CS2 match prediction · StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026
FURIA
World #4 · 34-24
VS
2026-09-17 17:30 UTC
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
MIBR
World #18 · 47-23
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
50%50%
74%
1.273.6Market · 9 books
26%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 50–50. Bookmakers lean FURIA at 74%. Record slightly favours MIBR, firepower slightly favours MIBR.
Likely mapsInferno · Anubis · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FURIApullMIBR
Team strength1643
166755/45 MIB
Track record34–24
47–2360/40 MIB
Recent formLLWWL
LWLWW56/44 MIB
Roster rating1.1
1.1361/39 MIB
Bookmakers imply 74% for FURIA (1.27 / 3.6); we land 24 points lower at 50%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (149 maps of FURIA, 154 of MIBR).
Bottom line: FURIA to beat MIBR, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFURIA · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
MIBR · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.18iStar gap: the best player rates 0.18 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Spirit#13-50-1
MOUZ#34-10-2
MIBR vs MOUZ
May 24LOverpass3-13Ancient1-13
Legacy#61-46-10
MIBR vs Legacy
Sep 12LNuke10-13Ancient13-11Inferno14-16Aug 16LNuke11-13Inferno8-13Jun 6WNuke13-8+4 earlier meetings
Astralis#113-30-3
FaZe#131-21-0
FURIA vs FaZe
Apr 30LDust24-13Mirage13-7Nuke3-13MIBR vs FaZe
Jul 2WAncient13-6
9z#144-26-3
MIBR vs 9z
Sep 9WMirage13-6Nuke13-7Jul 5LNuke10-13Mirage13-16Feb 1WNuke16-14Inferno16-13+1 earlier meeting
The MongolZ#153-32-1
MIBR vs The MongolZ
Sep 8WAncient5-13Mirage13-10Inferno16-12
Map lab
MIBR76%to win the Bo3 · most likely MIBR 2-0
If the veto goes
FURIA 24%how the series ends76% MIBR
7%2-051%
18%2-125%
FURIA39%12-9vsMIBR61%25-12
57%Win68%
56%CT55%
47%T57%
55%Pistol58%
70%Conv74%
FURIA17%3-4vsMIBR83%11-2
43%Win85%
40%CT55%
51%T65%
50%Pistol62%
71%Conv94%
FURIA41%20-16vsMIBR59%20-11
56%Win65%
59%CT67%
44%T47%
47%Pistol58%
71%Conv83%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
FURIAInfernoMIBR
56%CT side55%
47%T side57%
55%Pistol58%
70%After win74%
16%After loss13%
FURIAAnubisMIBR
40%CT side55%
51%T side65%
50%Pistol62%
71%After win94%
29%After loss20%
FURIAMirageMIBR
59%CT side67%
44%T side47%
47%Pistol58%
71%After win83%
29%After loss27%
Pistol rounds50% · 59% · MIBR win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol70% · 81% · MIBR keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol25% · 19% · FURIA fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, FURIA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFURMIB
AncientFUR ban44%4-562%16-10
Dust2MIB ban58%19-140%0-1
InfernoFUR pick57%12-968%25-12
AnubisMIB pick43%3-485%11-2
CacheFUR ban33%2-480%4-1
NukeMIB ban59%13-960%18-12
Miragedecider56%20-1665%20-11
Each team's usual first ban: FURIA Ancient · MIBR Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
FURIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/81 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 81 maps they won, 22 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs G2Ancientfrom 10 downvs VitalityMiragefrom 7 downvs The MongolZDust2from 7 downvs Natus VincereNukefrom 7 downvs AuroraMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/68 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 22 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs G2Anubisled 10 · lost 3-13vs AuroraDust2led 6 · lost 14-16vs FalconsNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs VitalityOverpassled 6 · lost 10-13vs SpiritMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2Ancientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs G2Anubisled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs The MongolZInferno16-12vs SpiritMirage16-13vs FUTOverpass22-18vs FalconsMirage16-14vs PARIVISIONDust216-14
MIBR
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/99 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 99 maps they won, 30 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs GalorysMiragefrom 9 downvs Gaimin GladiatorsAnubisfrom 8 downvs Bounty HuntersAnubisfrom 6 downvs BC.GameAnubisfrom 6 downvs RED CanidsAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/55 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 55 maps they lost, 21 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs RED CanidsInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs LegacyMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs Eternal FireAncientled 6 · lost 16-19vs Eternal FireMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs BETBOOMAnubisled 6 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GalorysMiragefrom 9 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs RED CanidsInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs LegacyAncient22-20vs RED CanidsAncient19-16vs 9zNuke16-14vs 9zInferno16-13vs GalorysNuke16-13