SAW Youngsters are favoured: our model gives them 62% against REVENIX. No odds yet. Record clearly favours SAW Youngsters, form clearly favours SAW Youngsters, firepower clearly favours SAW Youngsters.
Likely mapsAnubis · Mirage · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
SAW YoungsterspullREVENIX
Team strength1464
144155/45 SAW
Track record11–15
0–490/10 SAW
Recent formLWLLL
LLLL75/25 SAW
Roster rating1.07
0.8597/3 SAW
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 68% our own signal (65 maps of SAW Youngsters, 8 of REVENIX).
Bottom line: SAW Youngsters to beat REVENIX, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratings
SAW Youngsters · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
REVENIX · avg 0.85 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
No prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
SAW Youngsters58%to win the Bo3 · most likely SAW Youngsters 2-0
If the veto goes
SAW Youngsters 58%how the series ends42% REVENIX
31%2-019%
27%2-123%
Map 1AnubisSAW Youngsters pick
SAW Youngsters62%5-2vsREVENIX38%0-2
71%Win0%
61%CT47%
49%T29%
64%Pistol25%
89%Conv0%
Map 2MirageREVENIX pick
SAW Youngsters50%5-10vsREVENIX50%0-1
33%Win0%
52%CT11%
42%T58%
67%Pistol0%
80%Conv–
Map 3Dust2decider
SAW Youngsters54%4-8vsREVENIX46%0-2
33%Win0%
52%CT33%
41%T33%
42%Pistol25%
80%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns
CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
SAW YoungstersAnubisREVENIX
61%CT side47%
49%T side29%
64%Pistol25%
89%After win0%
20%After loss33%
SAW YoungstersMirageREVENIX
52%CT side11%
42%T side58%
67%Pistol0%
80%After win–
20%After loss0%
SAW YoungstersDust2REVENIX
52%CT side33%
41%T side33%
42%Pistol25%
80%After win100%
29%After loss0%
Pistol rounds57% · 20% · SAW Youngsters win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol82% · 50% · SAW Youngsters keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol24% · 13% · SAW Youngsters fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, SAW Youngsters vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
REVENIX habitually bans Inferno, SAW Youngsters's strongest maps (Anubis, Inferno all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 4/4), not an opponent read, so expect SAW Youngsters to fight the veto for Inferno.
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample