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Predictions / Eternal Fire vs Nice Try · match preview
Eternal Fire vs Nice Try: CS2 match prediction · HyperX Retake Season 12
Eternal Fire
World #51 · 50-35
VS
2026-09-19 16:45 UTC
HyperX Retake Season 12 · Best of 3
Nice Try
World #115 · 4-1
HyperX Retake Season 12 · Best of 3
69%31%
83%
1.115.6Market · 15 books
17%The call
Eternal Fire are favoured: our model gives them 69% against Nice Try. Bookmakers lean Eternal Fire at 83%. Strength slightly favours Eternal Fire, record slightly favours Nice Try, firepower clearly favours Nice Try.
Likely mapsMirage · Cache · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Eternal FirepullNice Try
Team strength1626
153269/31 ETE
Track record50–35
4–165/35 NIC
Recent formWWLLW
WWWLW56/44 NIC
Roster rating1.17
1.2987/13 NIC
Bookmakers imply 83% for Eternal Fire (1.11 / 5.6); we land 14 points lower at 69%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 68% our own signal (198 maps of Eternal Fire, 8 of Nice Try).
Bottom line: Eternal Fire to beat Nice Try, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsEternal Fire · avg 1.17 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Nice Try · avg 1.29 · star gap +0.31iStar gap: the best player rates 0.31 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fakerealityy★ | 2 | 94.3 | 94.2% | 63% | 1.6 |
| ta9z | 1.5 | 87.9 | 81.3% | 59% | 1.42 |
| Woro2k | 1.67 | 93.6 | 76.1% | 37% | 1.39 |
| Ryuzak1 | 1.07 | 72.1 | 80.5% | 62% | 1.09 |
| m4d4ra | 0.95 | 67 | 74% | 58% | 0.96 |
Recent form
Eternal Fire
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
Nice Try54%to win the Bo3 · most likely Nice Try 2-0
If the veto goes
Eternal Fire 46%how the series ends54% Nice Try
22%2-028%
24%2-126%
Eternal Fire47%28-23vsNice Try53%2-1
55%Win67%
55%CT54%
45%T64%
55%Pistol33%
79%Conv100%
Eternal Fire47%4-5vsNice Try53%1-0
44%Win100%
53%CT58%
49%T67%
50%Pistol50%
67%Conv100%
Eternal Fire48%25-19vsNice Try52%1-0
57%Win100%
51%CT50%
55%T70%
45%Pistol100%
88%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Eternal FireMirageNice Try
55%CT side54%
45%T side64%
55%Pistol33%
79%After win100%
30%After loss25%
Eternal FireCacheNice Try
53%CT side58%
49%T side67%
50%Pistol50%
67%After win100%
22%After loss0%
Eternal FireDust2Nice Try
51%CT side50%
55%T side70%
45%Pistol100%
88%After win100%
15%After loss–
Pistol rounds50% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol81% · 100% · Nice Try keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol22% · 20% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Eternal Fire vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapETENIC
NukeETE ban46%6-70%0-1
AnubisNIC ban56%9-7n/a0g
Eternal Fire on Anubis
W
RBLS13–92d agoL
Nuclear TigeRES10–1316d agoW
1win16–132mo agoL
Gentle Mates9–134mo agoL
Betclic11–134mo agoW
fnatic13–34mo agoL
Oramond4–134mo agoL1win5–134mo agoNice Try on Anubis
no recent maps
MirageETE pick55%28-2367%2-1
CacheNIC pick44%4-5100%1-0
InfernoETE ban58%11-8100%1-0
Eternal Fire on Inferno
WWIMOK13–32d agoL
HEROIC5–1315d agoWHEROIC13–117d agoL
MIBR8–1317d agoW
LP13–618d agoW
ENCE13–720d agoW
OG13–120d agoL
BIG8–131mo agoNice Try on Inferno
W
WBT13–52d agoAncientNIC ban54%19-16100%1-0
Dust2decider57%25-19100%1-0
Each team's usual first ban: Eternal Fire Nuke · Nice Try Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Eternal Fire
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i41/109 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 109 maps they won, 41 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs K27Ancientfrom 8 downvs LilmixDust2from 7 downvs FAVBETOverpassfrom 6 downvs DramaInfernofrom 6 downvs MIBRAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i35/88 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 88 maps they lost, 35 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ARCREDDust2led 7 · lost 13-16vs Inner CircleAncientled 6 · lost 12-16vs BIG AcademyDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs HOTUCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs OxujiAncientled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs K27Ancientfrom 8 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ARCREDDust2led 7 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs AcendOverpass16-14vs ARCREDDust213-16vs Inner CircleAncient12-16vs HYPERSPIRITMirage16-12vs FlyQuestMirage14-16
Nice Try
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/6 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 6 maps they won, 2 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs WBTInfernofrom 8 downvs FaZe Up NextCachefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/2 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 2 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTInfernofrom 8 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni0 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini8.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample