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Predictions / GenOne vs BERG · match preview
GenOne vs BERG: CS2 match prediction · HyperX Retake Season 12
GenOne
World #56 · 77-57
VS
2026-09-19 18:00 UTC
HyperX Retake Season 12 · Best of 3
BERG
World #216 · 10-16
HyperX Retake Season 12 · Best of 3
78%22%
85%
1.086.02Market · 19 books
15%The call · high confidence
GenOne are favoured: our model gives them 78% against BERG. Bookmakers lean GenOne at 85%. Strength clearly favours GenOne, record slightly favours GenOne, firepower slightly favours GenOne.
Likely mapsNuke · Ancient · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
GenOnepullBERG
Team strength1613
144482/18 GEN
Track record77–57
10–1665/35 GEN
Recent formWWLLLWLWLW50/50
Roster rating1.12
1.0464/36 GEN
Bookmakers imply 85% for GenOne (1.08 / 6.02); we land 7 points lower at 78%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 92% our own signal (317 maps of GenOne, 50 of BERG).
Bottom line: GenOne to beat BERG, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsGenOne · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
BERG · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
GenOne
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
ASTRAL#792-10-1
GenOne vs ASTRAL
May 26WAncient6-13Dust213-6Nuke13-6BERG vs ASTRAL
Jun 28LAnubis5-13
Leo#1225-20-2
HAVU#1254-10-2
BERG vs HAVU
Aug 16LMirage6-13Ancient11-13
BIG Academy4-50-2
GenOne vs BIG Academy
Jun 7WOverpass13-10Dust211-13Inferno13-9Jun 5LOverpass11-13Dust22-13Apr 28WAncient13-10Dust213-5+1 earlier meeting
BERG vs BIG Academy
Jun 27LAnubis5-13Overpass5-13
Famalicão2-04-1
GenOne vs Famalicão
Feb 16WAnubis13-9Dust213-2
AaB3-20-1
BERG vs AaB
Mar 23LInferno13-16
los kogutos2-01-2
GenOne vs los kogutos
Mar 6WDust213-0Nuke13-10BERG vs los kogutos
Aug 12LNuke2-13Ancient16-13Mirage7-13Map lab
GenOne58%to win the Bo3 · most likely GenOne 2-0
If the veto goes
GenOne 58%how the series ends42% BERG
37%2-012%
21%2-130%
GenOne76%30-26vsBERG24%3-10
54%Win23%
54%CT43%
48%T37%
58%Pistol50%
88%Conv77%
GenOne49%34-31vsBERG51%7-6
52%Win54%
56%CT55%
47%T46%
54%Pistol58%
85%Conv80%
GenOne41%17-20vsBERG59%4-3
46%Win57%
51%CT65%
48%T50%
47%Pistol79%
80%Conv91%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
GenOneNukeBERG
54%CT side43%
48%T side37%
58%Pistol50%
88%After win77%
19%After loss8%
GenOneAncientBERG
56%CT side55%
47%T side46%
54%Pistol58%
85%After win80%
13%After loss0%
GenOneInfernoBERG
51%CT side65%
48%T side50%
47%Pistol79%
80%After win91%
18%After loss33%
Pistol rounds54% · 59% · BERG win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol85% · 82% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol17% · 7% · GenOne fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, GenOne vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
BERG habitually bans Dust2, GenOne's strongest maps (Dust2, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Dust2 18/26), not an opponent read, so expect GenOne to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapGENBER
MirageGEN bann/a0g33%3-6
GenOne on Mirage
no recent maps
Dust2BER ban66%64-3350%1-1
NukeGEN pick54%30-2623%3-10
AncientBER pick52%34-3154%7-6
CacheGEN ban33%2-4100%1-0
AnubisBER ban67%18-925%1-3
Infernodecider46%17-2057%4-3
Each team's usual first ban: GenOne Mirage · BERG Cache.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
GenOne
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i52/175 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 175 maps they won, 52 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs Galactik rebelsAncientfrom 10 downvs Galactik rebelsInfernofrom 8 downvs AaBNukefrom 7 downvs BET-MInfernofrom 6 downvs UrsaDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i51/142 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 142 maps they lost, 51 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs KOLESIEAncientled 9 · lost 12-16vs BIG AcademyOverpassled 9 · lost 11-13vs SPARTADust2led 7 · lost 9-13vs BetBoomNukeled 6 · lost 19-22vs NemesisDust2led 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Galactik rebelsAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs KOLESIEAncientled 9 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 27Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 27 went to overtime.vs BetBoomNuke19-22vs fnaticDust216-14vs 1winInferno20-22vs NemesisDust213-16vs BetclicNuke17-19
BERG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i7/20 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 20 maps they won, 7 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs FamalicãoAncientfrom 7 downvs FamalicãoAncientfrom 7 downvs PrivateerNukefrom 5 downvs WBTAncientfrom 4 downvs SINQU REHTIAnubisfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/30 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 30 maps they lost, 10 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs XINukeled 7 · lost 9-13vs Mai TaiMirageled 5 · lost 9-13vs mellrenMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs Falcons ForceInfernoled 4 · lost 9-13vs mellrenMirageled 4 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FamalicãoAncientfrom 7 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs XINukeled 7 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi24% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT24% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs AaBInferno13-16vs los kogutosAncient16-13vs mellrenMirage14-16vs PrivateerNuke16-12vs FamalicãoDust213-16