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Predictions / ShindeN vs EHISTO BASE · match preview
ShindeN vs EHISTO BASE: CS2 match prediction · Circuit X Curitiba Fall 2026
ShindeN
World #80 · 50-26
VS
2026-09-17 13:00 UTC
Circuit X Curitiba Fall 2026 · Best of 3
EHISTO BASE
World #– · 0-2
Circuit X Curitiba Fall 2026 · Best of 3
77%23%
66%
1.42.66Market · 2 books
34%The call · high confidence
ShindeN are favoured: our model gives them 77% against EHISTO BASE. Bookmakers lean ShindeN at 66%. Strength clearly favours ShindeN, record clearly favours ShindeN, form clearly favours ShindeN, firepower clearly favours ShindeN.
Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ShindeNpullEHISTO BASE
Team strength1642
146882/18 SHI
Track record50–26
0–289/11 SHI
Recent formLWWLL
LL82/18 SHI
Roster rating1.15
0.81100/0 SHI
Bookmakers imply 66% for ShindeN (1.4 / 2.66); we land 11 points higher at 77%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 55% our own signal (173 maps of ShindeN, 4 of EHISTO BASE; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: ShindeN to beat EHISTO BASE, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsShindeN · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.03iStar gap: the best player rates 0.03 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
EHISTO BASE · avg 0.81 · star gap +0.26iStar gap: the best player rates 0.26 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
ShindeN
EHISTO BASE
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
BESTIA#901-60-2
ShindeN vs BESTIA
Aug 2LNuke11-13Dust211-13Jan 23LNuke17-19Dust28-13Jan 22LDust27-13Nuke13-6Overpass10-13EHISTO BASE vs BESTIA
Mar 5LMirage7-13Inferno3-13FAKFake do Biru7-10-2
ShindeN vs Fake do Biru
Apr 30WDust213-2Nuke9-13Mirage13-6Apr 9WDust213-7Nuke13-5Feb 14WNuke13-11Dust213-11+1 earlier meeting
EHISTO BASE vs Fake do Biru
Mar 5LDust27-13Mirage11-13Map lab
ShindeN57%to win the Bo3 · most likely ShindeN 2-0
If the veto goes
ShindeN 57%how the series ends43% EHISTO BASE
30%2-020%
27%2-123%
ShindeN50%31-15thinEHISTO BASE50%0-0
67%Win–
59%CT–
54%T–
46%Pistol–
88%Conv–
ShindeN59%14-12vsEHISTO BASE41%0-2
54%Win0%
52%CT55%
50%T29%
56%Pistol25%
72%Conv100%
ShindeN54%20-13vsEHISTO BASE46%0-1
61%Win0%
53%CT33%
53%T38%
59%Pistol100%
74%Conv50%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ShindeNNukeEHISTO BASE
59%CT side–
54%T side–
46%Pistol–
88%After win–
34%After loss–
ShindeNMirageEHISTO BASE
52%CT side55%
50%T side29%
56%Pistol25%
72%After win100%
30%After loss33%
ShindeNDust2EHISTO BASE
53%CT side33%
53%T side38%
59%Pistol100%
74%After win50%
30%After loss–
Pistol rounds52% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol79% · 67% · ShindeN keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol32% · 33% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ShindeN vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSHIEHI
AnubisSHI bann/a0gn/a0g
ShindeN on Anubis
no recent maps
EHISTO BASE on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientEHI ban67%10-5n/a0g
ShindeN on Ancient
W
Turma do Pagode13–96d agoW
ALKA13–722d agoW
RUSH13–72mo agoL
LP7–132mo agoLUNO MILLE10–133mo agoWLP13–113mo agoW
MIBR Academy13–83mo agoW
Bounty Hunters13–65mo agoEHISTO BASE on Ancient
no recent maps
NukeSHI pick67%31-15n/a0g
ShindeN on Nuke
WTurma do Pagode16–146d agoW
Fluxo13–17d agoW
Isurus19–1718d agoLBESTIA11–132mo agoL
MIBR14–162mo agoL
Imperial9–132mo agoWRUSH13–82mo agoLBounty Hunters5–132mo agoEHISTO BASE on Nuke
no recent maps
MirageEHI pick54%14-120%0-2
CacheSHI ban29%2-5n/a0g
ShindeN on Cache
LFluxo3–134d agoLFluxo11–137d agoWImperial19–1615d agoWFluxo13–817d agoLImperial7–1319d agoLImperial16–192mo agoLLP7–132mo agoEHISTO BASE on Cache
no recent maps
InfernoEHI ban75%24-80%0-1
Dust2decider61%20-130%0-1
Each team's usual first ban: ShindeN Anubis · EHISTO BASE Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ShindeN
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/109 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 109 maps they won, 29 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs ex-KRÜDust2from 9 downvs ALKADust2from 8 downvs SharksMiragefrom 7 downvs IsurusNukefrom 7 downvs Fake do BiruNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/64 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 64 maps they lost, 22 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ImperialInfernoled 10 · lost 4-13vs paiNMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs ImperialCacheled 6 · lost 16-19vs 9zNukeled 5 · lost 10-13vs ProcyonDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-KRÜDust2from 9 down · won 19-16
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ImperialInfernoled 10 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs FluxoAncient16-14vs ImperialNuke16-13vs ImperialOverpass19-17vs BESTIANuke17-19vs RED CanidsMirage16-12
EHISTO BASE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/4 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni2 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample