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Predictions / Imperial vs BESTIA · match preview
Imperial vs BESTIA: CS2 match prediction · Circuit X Curitiba Season 3
Imperial
World #62 · 57-30
VS
2026-09-19 00:00 UTC
Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · Best of 3
BESTIA
World #90 · 44-28
Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · Best of 3
74%26%
69%
1.352.96Market · 13 books
31%The call · high confidence
Imperial are favoured: our model gives them 74% against BESTIA. Bookmakers lean Imperial at 69%. Strength slightly favours Imperial, firepower clearly favours Imperial, head-to-head clearly favours Imperial.
Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ImperialpullBESTIA
Team strength1678
160965/35 IMP
Track record57–30
44–2854/46 IMP
Recent formWLLWWWLWLL50/50
Roster rating1.15
1.0875/25 IMP
Head-to-head6 maps
1 maps78/22 IMP
Bookmakers imply 69% for Imperial (1.35 / 2.96); we land 5 points higher at 74%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (213 maps of Imperial, 145 of BESTIA). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: Imperial leads 3–0.
Bottom line: Imperial to beat BESTIA, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsImperial · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
BESTIA · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Imperial
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents1mo ago
Imperial2 : 1
BESTIA!2mo ago Imperial2 : 0 BESTIA!2mo ago Imperial2 : 0 BESTIA!
Imperial2 : 1 BESTIA!⚠ Different lineup
BESTIA
outnacho, tomaszin
indrop, kauez
Imperial2 : 0 BESTIA!⚠ Different lineup
BESTIA
outnacho, tomaszin
indrop, kauez
Imperial2 : 0 BESTIA!⚠ Different lineup
BESTIA
outnacho, tomaszin
indrop, kauez
9z#142-40-2
BESTIA vs 9z
Mar 5LInferno9-13Dust27-13
MIBR#183-40-2
Imperial vs MIBR
Mar 2WInferno8-13Mirage7-13Anubis16-14Nuke19-16Overpass13-11Jan 17LInferno10-13Nuke10-13BESTIA vs MIBR
Aug 2LCache9-13Inferno8-13
Fluxo#616-106-0
Imperial vs Fluxo
Sep 12LAnubis11-13Inferno14-16Jul 31LDust213-5Inferno9-13Nuke8-13Jul 20LNuke19-17Cache13-16Dust217-19Mirage13-3Anubis11-13+2 earlier meetings
ShindeN#808-106-1
Imperial vs ShindeN
Sep 1WDust213-9Cache16-19Inferno19-16Aug 28WInferno13-4Cache13-7Jul 30LMirage14-16Nuke13-9Inferno9-13+4 earlier meetings
Marsborne#911-24-4
Imperial vs Marsborne
Mar 7LInferno13-4Overpass9-13Mirage10-13
Galorys#9512-73-5
Imperial vs Galorys
Sep 9WInferno13-5Anubis13-5Sep 1WAnubis13-11Dust213-9Aug 30LAnubis4-13Inferno6-13+6 earlier meetings
LP#1016-23-2
Imperial vs LP
Jul 12WMirage13-11Inferno13-4Jul 9WMirage13-7Inferno13-1May 10LDust210-13Inferno5-13+1 earlier meeting
ODDIK#1135-32-0
Map lab
Imperial60%to win the Bo3 · most likely Imperial 2-1
If the veto goes
Imperial 60%how the series ends40% BESTIA
20%2-029%
39%2-111%
Imperial51%30-18vsBESTIA49%16-10
63%Win62%
58%CT59%
50%T53%
55%Pistol62%
89%Conv78%
Imperial39%23-16vsBESTIA61%25-11
59%Win69%
58%CT55%
49%T55%
50%Pistol42%
82%Conv83%
Imperial78%8-4vsBESTIA22%2-5
67%Win29%
60%CT51%
57%T33%
63%Pistol64%
73%Conv78%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ImperialMirageBESTIA
58%CT side59%
50%T side53%
55%Pistol62%
89%After win78%
19%After loss20%
ImperialDust2BESTIA
58%CT side55%
49%T side55%
50%Pistol42%
82%After win83%
28%After loss36%
ImperialCacheBESTIA
60%CT side51%
57%T side33%
63%Pistol64%
73%After win78%
22%After loss0%
Pistol rounds54% · 51% · Imperial win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 80% · Imperial keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol23% · 28% · BESTIA fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Imperial vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
BESTIA habitually bans Anubis, Imperial's strongest maps (Nuke, Mirage, Anubis, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 61/71), not an opponent read, so expect Imperial to fight the veto for Mirage.
MapIMPBES
AncientIMP bann/a0g52%16-15
Imperial on Ancient
no recent maps
AnubisBES ban69%11-5n/a0g
Imperial on Anubis
LFluxo11–136d agoWGalorys13–59d agoWGalorys13–1117d agoLGalorys4–1319d agoWGalorys13–101mo agoLFluxo11–132mo agoW
Bounty Hunters13–112mo agoLUNO MILLE9–134mo agoBESTIA on Anubis
no recent maps
MirageIMP pick63%30-1862%16-10
Dust2BES pick59%23-1669%25-11
NukeIMP ban64%25-1467%12-6
InfernoBES ban57%24-1838%8-13
Cachedecider67%8-429%2-5
Each team's usual first ban: Imperial Ancient · BESTIA Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Imperial
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i31/129 (24%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 129 maps they won, 31 (24%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 24% of their wins were comebacks, not 24% of all games.vs ShindeNInfernofrom 10 downvs ODDIKAnubisfrom 8 downvs Fake do BiruMiragefrom 7 downvs ShindeNCachefrom 6 downvs BESTIADust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/82 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 82 maps they lost, 27 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ShindeNMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs DENDELENukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs ODDIKDust2led 5 · lost 10-13vs METANOIAInfernoled 5 · lost 14-16vs GalorysOverpassled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ShindeNInfernofrom 10 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ShindeNMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 30Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 30 went to overtime.vs ShindeNNuke13-16vs ShindeNOverpass17-19vs SharksInferno17-19vs ODDIKAnubis16-14vs Bounty HuntersNuke17-19
BESTIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/82 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 82 maps they won, 22 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs LPAncientfrom 10 downvs 3DMAXDust2from 5 downvs AaBOverpassfrom 5 downvs ShindeNDust2from 5 downvs ODDIKAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/62 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 62 maps they lost, 21 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs B8Mirageled 7 · lost 14-16vs Fake do BiruInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs ImperialDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs YawaraMirageled 6 · lost 8-13vs GalorysAncientled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LPAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs B8Mirageled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs ShindeNNuke19-17vs MarsborneAncient19-16vs RED CanidsAncient16-13vs MANAMirage12-16vs Gaimin GladiatorsAncient14-16