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Predictions / BESTIA vs ShindeN · match preview
BESTIA vs ShindeN: CS2 match prediction · Circuit X Curitiba Season 3
BESTIA
World #90 · 45-28
VS
2026-09-19 21:00 UTC
Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · Best of 3
ShindeN
World #80 · 53-26
Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · Best of 3
53%47%
43%
2.181.64Market · 26 books
57%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 53–47. Bookmakers lean ShindeN at 57%. Strength slightly favours ShindeN, firepower clearly favours ShindeN, head-to-head clearly favours BESTIA.
Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BESTIApullShindeN
Team strength1622
165858/42 SHI
Track record45–28
53–2656/44 SHI
Recent formWWLWL
WWWLW54/46 SHI
Roster rating1.11
1.1678/22 SHI
Head-to-head6 maps
1 maps78/22 BES
Bookmakers imply 43% for BESTIA (2.18 / 1.64); we land 10 points higher at 53%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (148 maps of BESTIA, 181 of ShindeN). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: BESTIA leads 3–0.
Bottom line: BESTIA to beat ShindeN, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBESTIA · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ShindeN · avg 1.16 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
BESTIA
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents2mo ago
BESTIA2 : 0
ShindeN!8mo ago BESTIA2 : 0 ShindeN!8mo ago BESTIA2 : 1 ShindeN!
BESTIA2 : 0 ShindeN!⚠ Different lineup
BESTIA
outbuda, cass1n, nacho, timo, tomaszin
BESTIA2 : 0 ShindeN!⚠ Different lineup
BESTIA
outNoktse, buda, cass1n, timo, tomaszin
ShindeN
outnacho
inguty
BESTIA2 : 1 ShindeN!⚠ Different lineup
BESTIA
outNoktse, buda, cass1n, timo, tomaszin
ShindeN
outnacho
inguty
9z#140-23-2
BESTIA vs 9z
Mar 5LInferno9-13Dust27-13
MIBR#180-24-3
Fluxo#616-010-10
ShindeN vs Fluxo
Sep 17WInferno13-8Mirage8-13Nuke13-11Sep 12LMirage5-13Inferno13-10Cache3-13Sep 9LNuke13-1Cache11-13Mirage6-13+5 earlier meetings
Imperial#623-710-8
BESTIA vs Imperial
Sep 19Wseries2-1Aug 15LNuke10-13Inferno13-9Mirage4-13Jul 28LInferno4-13Dust213-16+1 earlier meeting
ShindeN vs Imperial
Sep 1LDust29-13Cache19-16Inferno16-19Aug 28LInferno4-13Cache7-13Jul 30WMirage16-14Nuke9-13Inferno13-9+4 earlier meetings
Galorys#953-52-4
LP#1013-25-3
Isurus#1174-14-3
ALKA#1232-12-0
BESTIA vs ALKA
Aug 15WCache8-13Dust213-8Ancient19-15ShindeN vs ALKA
Aug 25WAncient13-7Dust213-11Map lab
ShindeN53%to win the Bo3 · most likely ShindeN 2-1
If the veto goes
BESTIA 47%how the series ends53% ShindeN
26%2-023%
20%2-130%
BESTIA57%16-10vsShindeN43%15-13
62%Win54%
59%CT50%
53%T50%
62%Pistol54%
78%Conv73%
BESTIA46%12-6vsShindeN54%34-15
67%Win69%
61%CT59%
44%T54%
56%Pistol47%
65%Conv89%
BESTIA40%16-15vsShindeN60%10-6
52%Win63%
54%CT56%
45%T47%
58%Pistol53%
83%Conv76%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BESTIAMirageShindeN
59%CT side50%
53%T side50%
62%Pistol54%
78%After win73%
20%After loss27%
BESTIANukeShindeN
61%CT side59%
44%T side54%
56%Pistol47%
65%After win89%
31%After loss33%
BESTIAAncientShindeN
54%CT side56%
45%T side47%
58%Pistol53%
83%After win76%
27%After loss33%
Pistol rounds59% · 50% · BESTIA win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol77% · 82% · ShindeN keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol26% · 31% · ShindeN fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BESTIA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBESSHI
AnubisBES bann/a0gn/a0g
BESTIA on Anubis
no recent maps
ShindeN on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2SHI ban69%25-1162%21-13
MirageBES pick62%16-1054%15-13
NukeSHI pick67%12-669%34-15
InfernoBES ban38%8-1376%25-8
CacheSHI ban29%2-529%2-5
Ancientdecider52%16-1563%10-6
Each team's usual first ban: BESTIA Anubis · ShindeN Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BESTIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/82 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 82 maps they won, 22 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs LPAncientfrom 10 downvs 3DMAXDust2from 5 downvs AaBOverpassfrom 5 downvs ShindeNDust2from 5 downvs ODDIKAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/62 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 62 maps they lost, 21 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs B8Mirageled 7 · lost 14-16vs Fake do BiruInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs ImperialDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs YawaraMirageled 6 · lost 8-13vs GalorysAncientled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LPAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs B8Mirageled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs ShindeNNuke19-17vs MarsborneAncient19-16vs RED CanidsAncient16-13vs MANAMirage12-16vs Gaimin GladiatorsAncient14-16
ShindeN
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/115 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 115 maps they won, 30 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs ex-KRÜDust2from 9 downvs ALKADust2from 8 downvs SharksMiragefrom 7 downvs IsurusNukefrom 7 downvs Fake do BiruNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/66 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 66 maps they lost, 22 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ImperialInfernoled 10 · lost 4-13vs paiNMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs ImperialCacheled 6 · lost 16-19vs 9zNukeled 5 · lost 10-13vs ProcyonDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-KRÜDust2from 9 down · won 19-16
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ImperialInfernoled 10 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs FluxoAncient16-14vs ImperialNuke16-13vs ImperialOverpass19-17vs BESTIANuke17-19vs RED CanidsMirage16-12