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Predictions / regain vs Babag · match preview
regain vs Babag: CS2 match prediction · CROSSFIRE Season 6
CROSSFIRE Season 6 · Best of 3
75%25%
75%
1.233.67Market · 2 books
25%The call · high confidence
regain are favoured: our model gives them 75% against Babag. Bookmakers lean regain at 75%. Strength slightly favours regain, record clearly favours regain, form clearly favours regain, firepower clearly favours regain.
Likely mapsAncient · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
regainpullBabag
Team strength1532
148360/40 REG
Track record30–23
0–177/23 REG
Recent formLWWLL
L82/18 REG
Roster rating1.22
0.8399/1 REG
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 75% for regain (1.23 / 3.67) and we land at 75%, the same read. This read is 44% our own signal (119 maps of regain, 2 of Babag; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: regain to beat Babag, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsregain · avg 1.22 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Babag · avg 0.83 · star gap +0.24iStar gap: the best player rates 0.24 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
regain
Babag
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Villainous#2082-00-2
regain vs Villainous
Jun 30WAncient13-10Anubis13-3Babag vs Villainous
Sep 7LDust21-13Anubis7-13Map lab
regain52%to win the Bo3 · most likely regain 2-0
If the veto goes
regain 52%how the series ends48% Babag
27%2-023%
25%2-125%
regain50%14-11thinBabag50%0-0
56%Win–
51%CT–
51%T–
50%Pistol–
80%Conv–
regain53%11-10vsBabag47%0-1
52%Win0%
49%CT0%
46%T8%
48%Pistol0%
90%Conv–
regain50%1-0thinBabag50%0-0
100%Win–
100%CT–
58%T–
100%Pistol–
100%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
regainAncientBabag
51%CT side–
51%T side–
50%Pistol–
80%After win–
8%After loss–
regainDust2Babag
49%CT side0%
46%T side8%
48%Pistol0%
90%After win–
5%After loss0%
regainCacheBabag
100%CT side–
58%T side–
100%Pistol–
100%After win–
–After loss–
Pistol rounds50% · 0% · regain win more of them, a small head start
After a lost pistol6% · 0% · regain fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, regain vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapREGBAB
NukeREG bann/a0gn/a0g
regain on Nuke
no recent maps
Babag on Nuke
no recent maps
InfernoBAB ban58%18-13n/a0g
regain on Inferno
L
LAG8–135d agoW
DETONATE13–109d agoW
NuTorious13–610d agoLFor Fun10–1317d agoWSkyline16–1217d agoLDETONATE8–1317d agoW
Chicken Coop22–182mo agoL
Club 33313–162mo agoBabag on Inferno
no recent maps
AncientREG pick56%14-11n/a0g
regain on Ancient
WDETONATE13–79d agoWNuTorious19–1610d agoLSkyline14–1617d agoL
Marsborne4–132mo agoLMarsborne1–132mo agoWraisedbypixels13–83mo agoWVillainous13–103mo agoL
Zomblers4–135mo agoBabag on Ancient
no recent maps
Dust2BAB pick52%11-100%0-1
MirageREG ban38%11-18n/a0g
regain on Mirage
LNuTorious13–1610d agoLFarmVille10–1311d agoL
Without a Roof6–1312d agoLFor Fun3–1317d agoWSkyline13–717d agoLMarsborne6–132mo agoL
Voca5–132mo agoLVoca11–132mo agoBabag on Mirage
no recent maps
AnubisBAB ban83%5-10%0-1
Cachedecider100%1-0n/a0g
regain on Cache
WMarsborne13–52mo agoBabag on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: regain Nuke · Babag Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
regain
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/63 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 63 maps they won, 21 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs FarmVilleDust2from 10 downvs FarmVilleAncientfrom 6 downvs ZomblersInfernofrom 5 downvs AkimboInfernofrom 5 downvs BlitzkriegDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/56 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 56 maps they lost, 19 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NuToriousMirageled 8 · lost 13-16vs Club 333Infernoled 7 · lost 13-16vs SkylineAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs MarsborneMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs FarmVilleInfernoled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FarmVilleDust2from 10 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NuToriousMirageled 8 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs BlitzkriegDust216-12vs Outfit 49Dust222-19vs ZomblersDust221-25vs F5Inferno13-16vs FarmVilleInferno16-19
Babag
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/2 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 2 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni2 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample