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Predictions / M80 vs BESTIA · match preview
M80 vs BESTIA: CS2 match prediction · iBUYPOWER Masters FML 2026
M80
World #26 · 40-25
VS
2026-09-25 20:00 UTC
iBUYPOWER Masters FML 2026 · Best of 3
BESTIA
World #90 · 42-27
iBUYPOWER Masters FML 2026 · Best of 3
62%38%
78%
1.24.15Market · 2 books
22%The call
M80 are favoured: our model gives them 62% against BESTIA. Bookmakers lean M80 at 78%. Form clearly favours M80, firepower clearly favours M80.
Likely mapsInferno · Dust2 · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
M80pullBESTIA
Team strength1623
160055/45 M80
Track record40–25
42–2753/47 M80
Recent formWWWWL
LLLWW76/24 M80
Roster rating1.13
0.9681/19 M80
Bookmakers imply 78% for M80 (1.2 / 4.15); we land 16 points lower at 62%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (135 maps of M80, 139 of BESTIA).
Bottom line: M80 to beat BESTIA, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsM80 · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
BESTIA · avg 0.96 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
M80
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
B8#161-21-2
Liquid#224-40-1
Wildcard#404-01-0
BESTIA vs Wildcard
Mar 28WInferno13-10
Marsborne#911-24-4
M80 vs Marsborne
Apr 26LMirage13-5Ancient9-13Anubis8-13
BASEMENT BOYS#932-01-0
M80 vs BASEMENT BOYS
Mar 30WInferno13-9Dust213-3BESTIA vs BASEMENT BOYS
Mar 24WAncient13-7
Monte2-30-1
BESTIA vs Monte
Feb 20LDust28-13
Passion UA1-20-2
M80 vs Passion UA
Feb 8LOverpass11-13Mirage13-11Inferno5-13BESTIA vs Passion UA
Apr 5LMirage6-13Inferno13-16
BetBoom0-11-2
M80 vs BetBoom
Jun 7LDust22-13Map lab
M8058%to win the Bo3 · most likely M80 2-1
If the veto goes
M80 58%how the series ends42% BESTIA
25%2-020%
33%2-122%
M8069%18-14vsBESTIA31%7-13
56%Win35%
50%CT50%
56%T47%
50%Pistol45%
81%Conv67%
M8036%15-11vsBESTIA64%25-10
58%Win71%
56%CT55%
52%T56%
56%Pistol43%
90%Conv83%
M8059%23-11vsBESTIA41%14-10
68%Win58%
56%CT58%
50%T49%
43%Pistol58%
83%Conv79%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
M80InfernoBESTIA
50%CT side50%
56%T side47%
50%Pistol45%
81%After win67%
25%After loss32%
M80Dust2BESTIA
56%CT side55%
52%T side56%
56%Pistol43%
90%After win83%
17%After loss38%
M80MirageBESTIA
56%CT side58%
50%T side49%
43%Pistol58%
83%After win79%
13%After loss20%
Pistol rounds49% · 48% · level, no edge
After a won pistol84% · 77% · M80 keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol18% · 32% · BESTIA fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, M80 vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapM80BES
NukeM80 bann/a0g67%12-6
M80 on Nuke
no recent maps
AnubisBES ban50%4-4n/a0g
M80 on Anubis
L
Natus Vincere4–1322d agoW
Voca16–144mo agoLMarsborne8–135mo agoL
Alliance11–136mo agoW
Aurora13–106mo agoLLiquid3–137mo agoW
Ninjas in Pyjamas13–37mo agoW
FUT13–107mo agoBESTIA on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoM80 pick56%18-1435%7-13
Dust2BES pick58%15-1171%25-10
AncientM80 ban50%10-1052%15-14
CacheBES ban83%5-129%2-5
Miragedecider68%23-1158%14-10
Each team's usual first ban: M80 Nuke · BESTIA Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
M80
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i24/81 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 81 maps they won, 24 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs VocaAnubisfrom 6 downvs Passion UAMiragefrom 5 downvs AuroraAnubisfrom 5 downvs WildcardDust2from 5 downvs NRGInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/54 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 54 maps they lost, 18 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FalconsInfernoled 6 · lost 15-19vs VocaMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs LiquidMirageled 5 · lost 13-16vs FalconsAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncientled 5 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs VocaAnubisfrom 6 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FalconsInfernoled 6 · lost 15-19
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 9Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 9 went to overtime.vs LiquidMirage13-16vs WildcardDust216-14vs FalconsInferno15-19vs B8Inferno20-22vs LegacyInferno13-16
BESTIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/78 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 78 maps they won, 22 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs LPAncientfrom 10 downvs 3DMAXDust2from 5 downvs AaBOverpassfrom 5 downvs ShindeNDust2from 5 downvs ODDIKAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/60 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 60 maps they lost, 20 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs B8Mirageled 7 · lost 14-16vs Fake do BiruInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs ImperialDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs YawaraMirageled 6 · lost 8-13vs Gaimin GladiatorsAncientled 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LPAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs B8Mirageled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs ShindeNNuke19-17vs MarsborneAncient19-16vs RED CanidsAncient16-13vs MANAMirage12-16vs Gaimin GladiatorsAncient14-16