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Predictions / regain vs Without a Roof · match preview
regain vs Without a Roof: CS2 match prediction · CROSSFIRE Season 6
regain
World #168 · 31-23
VS
2026-09-20 00:00 UTC
CROSSFIRE Season 6 · Best of 3
Without a Roof
World #96 · 13-8
CROSSFIRE Season 6 · Best of 3
38%62%
18%
5.21.11Market · 2 books
82%The call
Without a Roof are favoured: our model gives them 62% against regain. Bookmakers lean Without a Roof at 82%. Strength slightly favours Without a Roof, firepower slightly favours Without a Roof, head-to-head slightly favours Without a Roof.
Likely mapsInferno · Ancient · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
regainpullWithout a Roof
Team strength1537
158761/39 WIT
Track record31–23
13–855/45 WIT
Recent formWLWWL
WLWLL55/45 REG
Roster rating1.12
1.1262/38 WIT
Head-to-head0 maps
1 maps67/33 WIT
Bookmakers imply 18% for regain (5.2 / 1.11); we land 20 points higher at 38%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 91% our own signal (122 maps of regain, 43 of Without a Roof). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Without a Roof leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Without a Roof to beat regain, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsregain · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Without a Roof · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
regain
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
SportsBetExpert#690-23-7
regain vs SportsBetExpert
Feb 5LInferno7-13Dust27-13Without a Roof vs SportsBetExpert
Sep 14LDust27-13Nuke13-4Inferno13-11Mirage1-13Cache4-13Sep 13LDust210-13Nuke6-13Aug 30LMirage9-13Inferno6-13+1 earlier meeting
Voca#840-60-2
Without a Roof vs Voca
Sep 12LMirage8-13Nuke11-13
Marsborne#912-54-1
regain vs Marsborne
Aug 1LMirage6-13Ancient4-13Jul 9WAncient1-13Cache13-5Mirage16-14Jan 10LInferno5-13Mirage11-13Without a Roof vs Marsborne
Sep 12WAncient16-14Inferno13-11Sep 10WAncient13-9Inferno13-6Sep 5LInferno4-13
LAG#940-24-4
regain vs LAG
Sep 11LInferno8-13Dust23-13FORFor Fun#1411-22-0
regain vs For Fun
Aug 30LDust213-5Inferno10-13Mirage3-13Without a Roof vs For Fun
Sep 7WAnubis13-11Mirage13-11
EMPIRE#1712-02-1
regain vs EMPIRE
Apr 16WInferno16-13Dust216-13Without a Roof vs EMPIRE
Sep 5WAncient13-7Dust29-13Inferno13-10
Villainous#2082-02-0
regain vs Villainous
Jun 30WAncient13-10Anubis13-3Without a Roof vs Villainous
Sep 11WMirage13-7Inferno13-8
NuTorious#2142-12-0
regain vs NuTorious
Sep 6WMirage13-16Inferno13-6Ancient19-16Without a Roof vs NuTorious
Sep 18WAncient13-6Mirage13-6Map lab
regain53%to win the Bo3 · most likely regain 2-1
If the veto goes
regain 53%how the series ends47% Without a Roof
22%2-028%
32%2-119%
regain42%19-13vsWithout a Roof58%7-3
59%Win70%
51%CT51%
56%T52%
44%Pistol35%
71%Conv57%
regain53%15-11vsWithout a Roof47%5-4
58%Win56%
52%CT49%
51%T51%
50%Pistol67%
81%Conv75%
regain63%11-11vsWithout a Roof37%2-4
50%Win33%
48%CT49%
45%T52%
48%Pistol67%
90%Conv50%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
regainInfernoWithout a Roof
51%CT side51%
56%T side52%
44%Pistol35%
71%After win57%
8%After loss15%
regainAncientWithout a Roof
52%CT side49%
51%T side51%
50%Pistol67%
81%After win75%
8%After loss17%
regainDust2Without a Roof
48%CT side49%
45%T side52%
48%Pistol67%
90%After win50%
4%After loss25%
Pistol rounds47% · 54% · Without a Roof win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol80% · 63% · regain keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol7% · 17% · Without a Roof fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, regain vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Without a Roof habitually bans Anubis, regain's strongest maps (Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 18/21), not an opponent read, so expect regain to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapREGWIT
NukeREG bann/a0g50%3-3
regain on Nuke
no recent maps
CacheWIT ban100%1-00%0-1
regain on Cache
WMarsborne13–52mo agoWithout a Roof on Cache
LSportsBetExpert4–134d agoInfernoREG pick59%19-1370%7-3
AncientWIT pick58%15-1156%5-4
MirageREG ban38%11-1870%7-3
AnubisWIT ban83%5-1100%1-0
regain on Anubis
WVillainous13–33mo agoWClayMakers13–95mo agoWFarmVille13–105mo agoL
Aether9–136mo agoW
Outfit 4913–27mo agoWBlitzkrieg13–88mo agoWithout a Roof on Anubis
WFor Fun13–1111d agoDust2decider50%11-1133%2-4
Each team's usual first ban: regain Nuke · Without a Roof Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
regain
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i23/65 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 65 maps they won, 23 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs FarmVilleDust2from 10 downvs FarmVilleAncientfrom 6 downvs BabagInfernofrom 6 downvs ZomblersInfernofrom 5 downvs AkimboInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/57 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 57 maps they lost, 19 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NuToriousMirageled 8 · lost 13-16vs Club 333Infernoled 7 · lost 13-16vs SkylineAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs MarsborneMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs FarmVilleInfernoled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FarmVilleDust2from 10 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NuToriousMirageled 8 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs BlitzkriegDust216-12vs Outfit 49Dust222-19vs ZomblersDust221-25vs F5Inferno13-16vs FarmVilleInferno16-19
Without a Roof
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i11/25 (44%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 25 maps they won, 11 (44%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 44% of their wins were comebacks, not 44% of all games.vs regainMiragefrom 5 downvs For FunAnubisfrom 5 downvs LAGNukefrom 5 downvs MarsborneInfernofrom 5 downvs MarsborneInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i3/18 (17%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 18 maps they lost, 3 (17%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SportsBetExpertMirageled 7 · lost 9-13vs LAGAncientled 5 · lost 9-13vs LAGAncientled 3 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs regainMiragefrom 5 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SportsBetExpertMirageled 7 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs MarsborneAncient16-14