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Predictions / F5 vs Omen · match preview
F5 vs Omen: CS2 match prediction · CROSSFIRE Season 6
CROSSFIRE Season 6 · Best of 3
47%53%
42%
2.211.61Market · 9 books
58%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 47–53. Bookmakers lean Omen at 58%. Form clearly favours Omen, firepower slightly favours Omen.
Likely mapsMirage · Anubis · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
F5pullOmen
Team strength1459
148856/44 OME
Track record14–202–350/50
Recent formLLLLL
LWLWL80/20 OME
Roster rating1.05
1.0967/33 OME
Bookmakers imply 42% for F5 (2.21 / 1.61); we land 5 points higher at 47%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 75% our own signal (80 maps of F5, 12 of Omen).
Bottom line: Omen to beat F5, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsF5 · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.26iStar gap: the best player rates 0.26 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| atyla★ | 1.09 | 86.8 | 77.3% | 52% | 1.31 |
| flacko | 1.09 | 85.3 | 70.8% | 60% | 1.22 |
| SeRCEra | 0.98 | 77 | 64.5% | 57% | 1.09 |
| colin | 0.74 | 53.9 | 71.3% | 51% | 0.83 |
| Michael Weki | 0.82 | 63 | 69.8% | 43% | 0.81 |
Omen · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.3iStar gap: the best player rates 0.3 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
F5
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
Omen57%to win the Bo3 · most likely Omen 2-0
If the veto goes
F5 43%how the series ends57% Omen
18%2-031%
26%2-126%
F554%9-5vsOmen46%0-1
64%Win0%
56%CT58%
49%T27%
57%Pistol0%
81%Conv–
F532%1-2vsOmen68%3-0
33%Win100%
56%CT72%
35%T50%
50%Pistol50%
100%Conv100%
F550%0-0thinOmen50%0-0
–Win–
–CT–
–T–
–Pistol–
–Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
F5MirageOmen
56%CT side58%
49%T side27%
57%Pistol0%
81%After win–
33%After loss50%
F5AnubisOmen
56%CT side72%
35%T side50%
50%Pistol50%
100%After win100%
0%After loss33%
F5CacheOmen
–CT side–
–T side–
–Pistol–
–After win–
–After loss–
Pistol rounds56% · 38% · F5 win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 100% · Omen keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol27% · 40% · Omen fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, F5 vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Omen habitually bans Mirage, F5's strongest maps (Mirage all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Mirage 3/6), not an opponent read, so expect F5 to fight the veto for Overpass.
MapF5OME
Dust2F5 ban0%0-40%0-2
AncientOME ban42%8-110%0-1
MirageF5 pick64%9-50%0-1
AnubisOME pick33%1-2100%3-0
NukeF5 ban36%4-70%0-1
InfernoOME ban42%5-733%1-2
Cachedecidern/a0gn/a0g
F5 on Cache
no recent maps
Omen on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: F5 Dust2 · Omen Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
F5
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i10/34 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 34 maps they won, 10 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs FRZAncientfrom 6 downvs Outfit 49Overpassfrom 6 downvs FarmVilleMiragefrom 4 downvs FarmVilleOverpassfrom 4 downvs Overtake SectorAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i13/46 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 46 maps they lost, 13 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Overtake SectorMirageled 7 · lost 6-13vs FRZNukeled 6 · lost 9-13vs Reign AboveAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13vs Reign AboveAncientled 4 · lost 5-13vs Overtake SectorDust2led 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FRZAncientfrom 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Overtake SectorMirageled 7 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini6.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi24% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT24% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs FlyQuest REDAncient20-22vs Chicken CoopNuke12-16vs MythicOverpass19-17vs VocaAncient14-16vs FarmVilleOverpass19-17
Omen
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/5 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 5 maps they won, 2 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs OlympusAnubisfrom 9 downvs ZomblersInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/7 (86%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 7 maps they lost, 6 (86%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BrahmasMirageled 4 · lost 10-13vs OlympusNukeled 4 · lost 11-13vs SportsBetExpertInfernoled 3 · lost 11-13vs SportsBetExpertDust2led 3 · lost 11-13vs ZomblersAncientled 3 · lost 4-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs OlympusAnubisfrom 9 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BrahmasMirageled 4 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini4.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi58% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT58% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample