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Predictions / KODEX vs LAG · match preview
KODEX vs LAG: CS2 match prediction · CROSSFIRE Season 6
CROSSFIRE Season 6 · Best of 3
18%82%
12%
81.04Market · 2 books
88%The call · high confidence
LAG are favoured: our model gives them 82% against KODEX. Bookmakers lean LAG at 88%. Strength clearly favours LAG, record clearly favours LAG, form clearly favours LAG, firepower clearly favours LAG.
Likely mapsAnubis · Dust2 · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
KODEXpullLAG
Team strength1473
160075/25 LAG
Track record0–2
52–2789/11 LAG
Recent formLL
WWLLW86/14 LAG
Roster rating0.87
1.15100/0 LAG
Bookmakers imply 12% for KODEX (8 / 1.04); we land 6 points higher at 18%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 55% our own signal (4 maps of KODEX, 182 of LAG; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: LAG to beat KODEX, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsKODEX · avg 0.87 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
LAG · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
KODEX
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Marsborne#910-20-6
KODEX vs Marsborne
Sep 16LAnubis6-13Ancient8-13FORFor Fun#1410-23-1
KODEX vs For Fun
Aug 30LAncient10-13Nuke6-13Map lab
LAG57%to win the Bo3 · most likely LAG 2-1
If the veto goes
KODEX 43%how the series ends57% LAG
24%2-026%
19%2-131%
KODEX48%0-1vsLAG52%5-6
0%Win45%
14%CT49%
42%T52%
100%Pistol41%
50%Conv100%
KODEX50%0-0thinLAG50%25-9
–Win74%
–CT58%
–T57%
–Pistol56%
–Conv95%
KODEX39%0-2vsLAG61%18-10
0%Win64%
61%CT51%
19%T60%
50%Pistol43%
100%Conv88%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
KODEXAnubisLAG
14%CT side49%
42%T side52%
100%Pistol41%
50%After win100%
–After loss15%
KODEXDust2LAG
–CT side58%
–T side57%
–Pistol56%
–After win95%
–After loss30%
KODEXAncientLAG
61%CT side51%
19%T side60%
50%Pistol43%
100%After win88%
0%After loss28%
Pistol rounds67% · 49% · KODEX win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol75% · 93% · LAG keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 27% · LAG fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, KODEX vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapKODLAG
InfernoKOD bann/a0g65%32-17
MirageLAG bann/a0g48%11-12
AnubisKOD pick0%0-145%5-6
Dust2LAG pickn/a0g74%25-9
NukeKOD ban0%0-170%19-8
CacheLAG bann/a0gn/a0g
KODEX on Cache
no recent maps
LAG on Cache
no recent maps
Ancientdecider0%0-264%18-10
Each team's usual first ban: KODEX Inferno · LAG Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
KODEX
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/4 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 1 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MarsborneAnubisled 4 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MarsborneAnubisled 4 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
LAG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i40/113 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 113 maps they won, 40 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs FarmVilleDust2from 9 downvs mouseDust2from 8 downvs Wanted GoonsDust2from 6 downvs SurgeDust2from 6 downvs Chicken CoopNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/67 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 67 maps they lost, 25 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs mouseInfernoled 8 · lost 16-19vs BOSSNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs BOSSNukeled 6 · lost 17-19vs WildcardMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs Fisher CollegeMirageled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FarmVilleDust2from 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs mouseInfernoled 8 · lost 16-19
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs WildcardInferno13-16vs FarmVilleInferno19-16vs BOSSNuke17-19vs mouseDust216-14vs BOSSInferno16-14