Too close to call. Our model has it 53–47. Bookmakers lean my life be like at 64%. Record slightly favours Addice, firepower clearly favours Addice.
Likely mapsAncient · Dust2 · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
my life be likepullAddice
Team strength1488
150754/46 ADD
Track record1–1
1–067/33 ADD
Recent formWLW50/50
Roster rating1.08
1.2596/4 ADD
Bookmakers imply 64% for my life be like (1.44 / 2.55); we land 11 points lower at 53%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 50% our own signal (5 maps of my life be like, 3 of Addice; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: my life be like to beat Addice, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratings
my life be like · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.26iStar gap: the best player rates 0.26 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Addice · avg 1.25 · star gap +0.29iStar gap: the best player rates 0.29 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
No prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
my life be like50%to win the Bo3 · most likely my life be like 2-0
If the veto goes
my life be like 50%how the series ends50% Addice
25%2-025%
25%2-125%
Map 1Ancientmy life be li… pick
my life be like50%1-1thinAddice50%0-0
50%Win–
35%CT–
63%T–
50%Pistol–
0%Conv–
Map 2Dust2Addice pick
my life be like50%0-0thinAddice50%1-0
–Win100%
–CT100%
–T75%
–Pistol100%
–Conv100%
Map 3Nukedecider
my life be like50%0-2thinAddice50%0-0
0%Win–
33%CT–
44%T–
75%Pistol–
67%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns
CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
my life be likeAncientAddice
35%CT side–
63%T side–
50%Pistol–
0%After win–
0%After loss–
my life be likeDust2Addice
–CT side100%
–T side75%
–Pistol100%
–After win100%
–After loss–
my life be likeNukeAddice
33%CT side–
44%T side–
75%Pistol–
67%After win–
0%After loss–
Pistol rounds63% · 100% · Addice win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol40% · 100% · Addice keep the momentum more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, my life be like vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
Each team's usual first ban: my life be like Dust2 · Addice Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
my life be like
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/2 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi60% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT60% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs Beyond LimitsNuke13-16
Addice
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/2 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 1 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs BucketJonsBoysMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/1 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 1 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample